Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Sunday’s Miami Heat at Washington Wizards NBA matchup.

While the Super Bowl is stepping to center stage of the sports world later on, the NBA will get things rolling with a four-game afternoon slate. Tipping off at 2:00 p.m. ET, the Miami Heat will face off with the Washington Wizards in an intriguing Eastern Conference battle.

Looking at the odds for tonight’s game, the Heat are 13.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 238.5 points.

This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Sunday afternoon matchup.

Heat at Wizards Preview

The Miami Heat hold a 27-26 record, which currently slots them at eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They are 2-4 in their last six games, and most recently suffered a 98-96 loss to the Celtics on Friday night. On the season, the Heat have gone 30-23 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 27 of their 53 games played.

Miami changed up its offensive identity in a major way coming into the season. It plays at a high pace and runs pick-and-rolls at a very infrequent rate compared to the rest of the NBA. Miami ranks fifth in the league in scoring at 119.5 points per game, 20th in offensive rating, 20th in field-goal percentage and 14th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 117.6 points per game against the Heat, which ranks 22nd in the league. They also rank fourth in defensive rating, sixth in opponent field-goal percentage and sixth in opponent three-point percentage. 

Tyler Herro will be sidelined tonight due to his rib injury, leaving Miami without his 21.9 points per game. Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo are each listed as probable. Powell leads the team in scoring at 23.0 points per game while shooting 39.3% on three-point attempts. Adebayo adds 18.1 points, 9.8 rebounds and is attempting a career-high 4.7 three-point attempts per game. Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson and Davion Mitchell are each also playing key roles on the team.

The Washington Wizards have quietly become one of the more interesting teams in the NBA following the trade deadline. They hold a record of 14-37 on the season and are in 14th place in the Eastern Conference. Today will mark the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Brooklyn Nets yesterday. On the season, Washington has gone 22-29 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 27 of its 51 games played.

The Wizards are averaging 112.4 points per game, which ranks 25th in the league in scoring. They rank 27th in offensive rating, 26th in field-goal percentage and 17th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 122.7 points per game, which is the second-worst rate in basketball. They also rank 29th in defensive rating, 22nd in field-goal percentage and 21st in opponent three-point percentage.

Neither Anthony Davis nor Trae Young is expected to make their Wizards debut anytime soon, as next season appears to be the launch point where the Wizards will truly look to compete. D’Angelo Russell, Dante Exum, Jaden Hardy, Cam Whitmore and Tre Johnson will also miss today, while Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George, Alex Sarr and Tristan Vukcevic are each listed as questionable.

Former second overall pick Alex Sarr has taken some encouraging strides in his development this season, posting averages of 17.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game. Kyshawn George adds 15.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists. Bub Carrington and Will Riley have shown some impressive flashes of late as well.

Heat at Wizards Prediction, Best Bet

This is the first meeting between these two teams this season, and they will face off three more times before the season concludes. While there is no doubt the Heat are the better team with higher aspirations for the year, the 13.5-point spread feels far too significant for my liking.

Miami’s biggest advantage as a team is its willingness and ability to push the pace at a rate unmatched by any other team in the NBA. But Washington has a loaded roster filled with young, energetic legs that will be willing to get up and down the court at the same pace. The Wizards rank ninth in pace themselves, and they have since moved on from slower-paced veterans such as CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton, which should lead this number to further improving. 

The 14-37 record is not inspiring, but the Wizards have quietly played some good basketball as of late. They are 4-3 in their last seven, including beating the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons on Thursday. Washington is also 7-4 against the spread in its last 11.

While the metrics do not show it just yet, you can see the vision of the Wizards becoming a really tough defensive team. Alex Sarr will be a tough matchup for Bam Adebayo to take on, and Washington has plenty of length and athleticism all across the roster. Miami has lost three of its last four games and was held to just 96 points in its previous matchup.

Expect the Heat to fail to put the level of scoring production on the board that it would require to cover this significant spread. Count on Washington bringing its best effort and for its defensive ability to be a storyline today. The young Wizards squad is not afraid to match up with anyone, and count on them going toe-to-toe with the Heat today to keep things much more competitive than the spread suggests.

Best Bet: Wizards +13.5 (-108)