Feb. 10, 2026, 11:40 p.m. ET

The Miami Heat (28-27) face the New Orleans Pelicans (15-40) Wednesday in New Orleans, Louisiana. Tip-off from Smoothie King Center is set for 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Pelicans odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Heat lead 1-0, a 125-106 victory on Jan. 4

The Heat dropped a tough one Monday night, falling 115-111 to the Utah Jazz. Miami failed to cover as 6-point road favorites as the Under (235.5) cashed. F Andrew Wiggins led all scorers with 26 points, while C Bam Adebayo posted a double-double with 23 points and 11 rebounds.

The Pelicans rolled to a second straight win Monday night, cruising past the Sacramento Kings 120-94. New Orleans covered as 9.5-point home favorites with the Under (229.5) cashing. F Trey Murphy III led the way with 21 points and 7 assists, while F Zion Williamson added 18 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds in the lopsided victory.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Heat at Pelicans odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:31 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Pelicans -125 (bet $125 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Heat +1.5 (-110) | Pelicans -1.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Heat at Pelicans key injuries

Heat

G Tyler Herro (ribs) outG Kasparas Jakucionis (ankle) availableF Jaime Jaquez Jr. (knee) availableF Nikola Jovic (hip) availableG Pelle Larsson (forearm) outG Norman Powell (back) outG Dru Smith (ankle) availableF Andrew Wiggins (toe) questionable

Pelicans

G Micah Peavy (toe) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Pelicans picks and predictionsPrediction

Pelicans 116, Heat 113

PASS.

I expect New Orleans (-125) to win, but you get better value with the small spread.

BET PELICANS -1.5 (-110).

This rematch sets up much differently than the first meeting. Miami dominated that one, but won’t have Powell after his 34-point outburst, and the Heat are far more banged up this time around. New Orleans has been a different team at home, with 9 of its 15 wins coming in the Smoothie King Center and 17 covers in 28 home games. Murphy has taken a big step offensively, averaging 22.2 points recently and scoring 27 against Miami earlier this season.

The Pelicans have covered 6 of their last 9, while Miami’s defense has slipped, allowing 117.3 points per game. These aren’t the same teams now. Take New Orleans at home.

BET OVER 232.5 (-110).

Miami’s injury issues on offense are hard to ignore, and it shows up in the totals. The Under has cashed in 4 of the last 6 meetings between the Heat and Pelicans. Miami has gone Under in 4 of its last 5 and has topped 115 points just once in its last 4 games. New Orleans has also hit the Under in 3 of its last 4. All signs point to another lower-scoring night.

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