The New Orleans Pelicans have won two games in a row and five of their last 10 to climb out of last place in the Western Conference with the All-Star break approaching. 

On Wednesday, the Pels find themselves as home favorites against the Miami Heat, who are coming off a loss to the tanking Utah Jazz on Monday. Miami is still in a top-eight spot in the East, but it has a very small cushion over Charlotte and Atlanta. 

The Heat didn’t make a big move at the deadline despite being interested in Giannis Antetokounmpo, and they’re down All-Star guards Norman Powell (back) and  Tyler Herro (ribs) in this matchup.

While New Orleans’ playoff hopes are extremely slim, this team has shown some fight over the last few weeks, and it has the third-best home against the spread record in the NBA at 17-10-1.

Can the Pelicans cover on Wednesday night? 

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this matchup. 

Heat vs. Pelicans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Heat +1.5 (-115)Pelicans -1.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Total

231.5 (Over -110/Under -110)Heat vs. Pelicans How to Watch Date: Wednesday, Feb. 11Time: 8:00 p.m. ESTVenue: Smoothie King CenterHow to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local)Heat record: 28-27Pelicans record: 15-40Heat vs. Pelicans Injury ReportsHeat Injury ReportTyler Herro – outNorman Powell – outPelle Larsson – outTerry Rozier – outAndrew Wiggins – questionableKasparas Jakucionis – availableVladislav Goldin – outKeshad Johnson – outJaime Jaquez Jr. – availableDru Smith – availablePelicans Injury ReportTrey Alexander – outHunter Dickinson – outDejounte Murray – outMicah Peavy – questionableHeat vs. Pelicans Best NBA Prop BetsHeat Best NBA Prop BetBam Adebayo OVER 21.5 Points (-108)

Each day, I share my favorite NBA prop bets at SI Betting, and I’m target Bam Adebayo to score big with Norman Powell and Tyler Herro out: 

The Miami Heat are extremely short-handed on Wednesday night against the New Orleans Pelicans, as Tyler Herro, Norman Powell and Pelle Larsson are out while Andrew Wiggins is questionable.

That leaves a ton of shots open for Bam Adebayo, who is averaging 21.8 points per game over his last 16 games. During that stretch, the star big man has scored 22 or more points nine times. 

The Pelicans are just 27th in the NBA in defensive rating and 23rd in opponent points in the paint per game, making this a pretty solid matchup for Adebayo, who should see his shot usage increase with Herro and Powell out. 

Bam has not shot the ball particularly well this season (44.6 percent from the field, 34.2 percent from 3), but his 3-point shot is starting to improve, as he’s knocked down 37.3 percent of his attempts over his last 16 games.

I think he’s worth a look on volume alone in this matchup. 

Heat vs. Pelicans Prediction and Pick

The Pelicans are 5-0 against the spread when favored at home this season, but I can’t get to them at this number against Miami.

The Heat are 17-11 against the spread (12-9 as an underdog) on the road, and even though Powell and Herro are out, the Heat still are a play-in caliber team in the East.

The Pelicans are one of the worst teams in the league, and they are a dreadful 3-27 straight up against teams that are .500 or better.

So, they’re winning just 10 percent of their games against those teams. I can’t back them as a favorite in this matchup, even though Miami has slipped with a bad loss to Utah earlier in the week. 

This line is mispriced given New Orleans’ struggles against any of the quality teams in the league. 

Pick: Heat +1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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