We’ve made it to Thursday! Hopefully the week is treating everyone well so far. There was a lot going on in the sports universe here at midweek, including tons of NBA news (scroll down for more on that), Arkansas knocking off Louisville on the college hard court (go Hogs!), and multiple NHL teams scoring seven goals in their games. Let’s keep the momentum going with the slate of games tonight, headlined by a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and Lions with huge playoff implications on the line:
The Main Events
NFL:
🏈 Cowboys (40%) at Lions (60%) (TNF)
NBA:
🏀 Lakers (44%) at Raptors (56%)
🏀 Warriors (41%) at Sixers (59%)
NHL:
🏒 Avalanche (67%) at Islanders (33%)
🏒 Maple Leafs (34%) at Hurricanes (66%)
🏒 Penguins (36%) at Lightning (64%)
College Hoops:
🏀 UNC (16%) at Texas (84%) (WBB)
🏀 South Carolina (80%) at Louisville (20%) (WBB)
🏀 Notre Dame (43%) at Ole Miss (57%) (WBB)
An eventful Wednesday in Milwaukee
Despite how the NBA’s recent trend toward unprecedented parity has downplayed the value of building superteams around just a few big names, the league remains plenty star-driven — and Wednesday was a reminder of that, in all kinds of different ways.
Early in the afternoon, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Giannis Antetokounmpo and his agent, Alex Saratsis, are in active discussions with Milwaukee Bucks brass about whether his best long-term fit is to stay with the Bucks or be traded elsewhere. Antetokounmpo was already reportedly “open” to exploring potential trades this past offseason — despite his contract running through the 2026-27 season before he could opt out — and the Bucks’ weak start in 2025-26 thus far (they’re 10-13 and rank 18th in net rating) has only amplified the rumors that he wants to move on.
For what it’s worth, Bucks coach Doc Rivers denied the report on Wednesday. (“There’s been no conversations,” he said. “[Antetokounmpo] loves Milwaukee and he loves the Bucks.”) But it’s undeniable that Milwaukee’s season is trending away from championship contention. The prediction markets on Wednesday morning listed the Bucks with just a 37% chance to make the playoffs, a 6% chance to win the Eastern Conference, and a 2% chance to win the NBA title. That was down from a 70% playoff probability before the season, when it still seemed like Milwaukee belonged in the tier directly below the top contenders to win the East.
Then, as if all of that wasn’t enough, Antetokounmpo just got hurt again. Mere minutes into Milwaukee’s game against Detroit on Wednesday night, he left the court with a strained right calf. While the Bucks say they’ve ruled out an Achilles tear, Antetokounmpo underwent an MRI and ESPN reporter Shams Charania reported this morning that the star will be “sidelined for approximately 2 to 4 weeks with a right calf strain.”
This follows a recent left groin strain that had already cost him four games in late November, and it sent Milwaukee’s odds tumbling even further in the prediction markets — to 18% for the playoffs, 3% to win the East, and less than 1% to win the title (which, frankly, might be generous) as of this newsletter being published.
We don’t know what the future holds for Antetokounmpo in any sense right now, but all of this matters because he is still so good. Despite the missed games, he ranks seventh in the league in my LAKER Wins Above Replacement metric, with an estimated effect of +9.4 points per 100 possessions to the Bucks’ net rating while he’s on the court. Among qualified NBA players this season, he ranks among the 93rd percentile or better in scoring volume and efficiency, foul-drawing, assists, rebounding (offensive and total), offensive impact, and overall impact.
When healthy, Antetokounmpo is capable of single-handedly changing a team’s fortunes — imagine how bad these Bucks would be without him? — and any transaction involving him will move markets significantly. Earlier in the day on Wednesday, we were waiting for when that might come in the form of a trade to a contender; by the end of the night, it had arrived via an injury instead.
Things To Do in Denver When Your Jumper’s Deadly
Facing the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday night, Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray didn’t miss — well, practically not. He went 19-for-25 from the field and 10-for-11 from downtown — tying the NBA record for 3-point shooting accuracy in any game with double-digit makes from deep — en route to an eye-popping 52 points. Somehow, that wasn’t a career-best night for Murray, though: he scored 55 back in February, and he has five career 50+ point games including the playoffs. Since 2020, it was the 11th 50-point game for a Denver player; only the Sixers and Warriors have featured more 50-burgers over that span:
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “Is Texas A&M Ready for the College Football Playoffs?” by Jeff Fogle
🏀 “Breaking Down Home Court Advantage in College Basketball” by Sean Beney
🏒 “The Washington Capitals look like serious contenders” by Adam Gretz
🏀 “A flood of first-time NBA All-Stars?” by Zach Harper
🏀 “Who the Hell is Paul Reed?!” by Max Moacanin
⚽ “Why the World Cup draw is the focal point of the sports year” by Dan Shanoff
Next on deck…
Here’s what’s coming over the next few days:
Friday (12/5)
🏈 North Texas at Tulane (AAC Championship)
🏈 Troy at James Madison (Sun Belt Championship)
🏀 Spurs at Cavaliers
🏀 Suns at Rockets
🏀 Nuggets at Hawks
🏀 Lakers at Celtics
🏒 Golden Knights at Devils
🏀 Gonzaga at Kentucky
Saturday (12/6)
🏈 BYU vs. Texas Tech (Big 12 Championship)
🏈 Georgia vs. Alabama (SEC Championship)
🏈 Indiana vs. Ohio State (Big Ten Championship)
🏈 Duke vs. Virginia (ACC Championship)
⚽ Arsenal at Aston Villa
⚽ Sunderland at Manchester City
⚽ Barcelona at Real Betis
🏀 Warriors at Cavaliers
🏀 Bucks at Pistons
🏒 Avalanche at Rangers
🏒 Jets at Oilers
🏀 Iowa State at Purdue
🏀 Duke at Michigan State
🏀 Louisville at Indiana
🏀 Illinois at Tennessee
🏀 Auburn at Arizona
🏀 Iowa at Rutgers (WBB)
Sunday (12/7)
🏈 Colts at Jaguars
🏈 Bears at Packers
🏈 Texans at Chiefs
🏀 Magic at Knicks
🏒 Avalanche at Flyers
🏀 Missouri at Kansas
🏀 Oregon at UCLA (WBB)
🏀 Washington at USC (WBB)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.