As all serious bettors understand, price is the most important variable when evaluating a wager. In an exchange-based market like Novig, bettors are often able to secure prices that are meaningfully better than what is available at traditional sportsbooks.
Today, the market is offering value on a home team that has quietly been playing good basketball in recent weeks. The best price currently available is at Novig.
NBA Best Bet for Wednesday
New Orleans Pelicans ML
(-106, Novig)
The Pelicans 15-40 SU record this season doesn’t inspire much confidence at first glance, but they have quietly been putting together some impressive performances of late, especially at home.
Since Jan. 13, New Orleans is 6-8 SU, despite facing a gauntlet of a schedule that has included games against the Nuggets, Rockets, Pistons, Spurs, Thunder, 76ers, Hornets and Timberwolves. Their 18th-ranked Net Rating in that span looks more impressive when factoring in the strength of those opponents and the fact that nine of those 14 games were played on the road.
In their last five home games, the Pelicans are 3-2 SU, with losses coming by 6 points to the Nuggets and 8 to the Pistons – two of the five best teams in the NBA by record. In their home wins during that stretch, they have defeated the Kings by 26 points, the Grizzlies by 8 and the Nets by 3.
On the other side of this matchup, Miami will be without Norman Powell and Pelle Larsson, in addition to dealing with the continued absence of Tyler Herro. Powell and Larsson, in particular, have been quality contributors on the offensive end of the floor for the Heat this season. Playing on the road against an improving New Orleans defense without those pieces presents a difficult challenge.
On the surface, Miami’s recent road numbers look strong, but those results are inflated by a schedule that has included games against the Wizards, Jazz and Kings. The Heat defeated the Kings by 13 points, the Jazz by 31 points, and the Wizards by 31 points. Against stronger competition, they own one recent impressive road win over the Suns but were run out of the building by the Trail Blazers and recently lost to the Celtics, too.
The Pelicans are playing much better than their overall record indicates and should have a strong chance to come away with a win this evening against an injury-plagued Heat squad.
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