We hope you’re having a thriving Thursday today — perhaps even as good as the Oklahoma City Thunder, who just won their way into the NBA Cup semifinals by nearly 50 points over the Phoenix Suns last night. (Which was kind of just another night at the office for that juggernaut of a team.) We have more on OKC and the rest of the NBA Cup field below… but first, here are the other headline items on today’s sports docket, including an NFC South Thursday Night Football special:
The Main Events
NFL:
🏈 Falcons (31%) at Buccaneers (69%) (Thursday Night Football)
NBA:
🏀 Clippers (21%) at Rockets (79%)
🏀 Celtics (77%) at Bucks (23%)
NHL:
🏒 Panthers (31%) at Avalanche (69%)
🏒 Hurricanes (52%) at Capitals (48%)
🏒 Stars (57%) at Wild (43%)
🏒 Lightning (56%) at Devils (44%)
College Hoops:
🏀 Iowa (13%) at Iowa State (87%)
The NBA Cup runneth over
After the Wemby-less Spurs beat the star-studded Lakers in LA and the Thunder absolutely demolished the Suns on Wednesday night, we now have a “Final Four” in the 2025 NBA Cup, the third edition of the league’s in-season tournament — with OKC and San Antonio joining the Knicks and Magic, who won their quarterfinal games on Tuesday. The teams will meet for the semifinals in Las Vegas on Saturday night, and then the winners there will face off next Tuesday to determine the champion.
Here’s how each team’s path to Vegas unfolded over the past six weeks, as tracked by prediction market odds, as well as how they currently stand in the race to win the Cup:
Obviously, the biggest thing that stands out is Oklahoma City’s very lopsided status as the favorite, with a whopping 67% chance to win the title. The defending NBA champion Thunder are in the midst of a historic season overall, winning 24 of their first 25 games to start the year — joining the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, who went on to break the league’s single-season wins record, as the only teams to ever do that — and their 49-point victory margin over the Suns Wednesday was the widest ever in an NBA Cup knockout game. (It was their 16th win in a row, as well.) The prediction market for OKC winning at least 70 games is now trading with a probability of 70%, which is incredible when we consider that feat has happened only twice before in the sport’s nearly 80-year history.
So, if you place these Thunder just two straight wins away from a trophy — any trophy — they’re probably going to grab it. Do any of the other competitors even stand a chance?
The Knicks have the second-best odds above for a reason: they rank No. 3 in the league (behind the Thunder and Houston Rockets) in point differential per 100 possessions, and they sit fourth in the current Elo rankings.
Though New York has lost two of three meetings with Orlando so far this season, they have a 65% chance to get past the Magic and face what will very likely be the Thunder in the championship game, which would be a high-profile and possibly competitive way for the in-season tourney to end.
And we can’t completely rule out the Magic or Spurs, either. Orlando has been surviving behind the strong play of Desmond Bane, and
Victor Wembanyama’s return to San Antonio would add a special wrinkle to what might otherwise be a one-sided contest against OKC.
But who are we really kidding here? The Thunder are the class of the NBA and they seem hell-bent on pulling off the league’s first-ever tournament “double” — winning the NBA Cup and the actual championship in the same season. Their odds are strong in both regards right now, and the first leg is now just a few wins away.
Meet the Mets, raid the Mets
In theory, baseball’s hot stove season is when having the sport’s deepest-pocketed owner is the biggest advantage, as a team could theoretically outspend its rivals for the best free agents and other available talent. However, the Mets and owner Steve Cohen have been disproving that theory so far this offseason, with two of the biggest deals of free agency — first baseman Pete Alonso going to the Orioles and relief pitcher Edwin Diaz joining the Dodgers — actually seeing players depart Queens. Cohen is preaching patience with the team’s offseason plans, but for now, no team has lost more talent to other teams, according to FanGraphs’ 2026 roster projections:
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “In Year 3 of NBA Cup, how are players and coaches feeling?” by The Athletic
🏈 “Has Michigan had enough yet?” by Matt Fortuna
🏀 “Fandom isn’t Easy nor is it a Choice” by Garrison Giddens
⚽ “What’s up with Chelsea?” by Grace Robertson
🏀 “The Rise of Smart Courts: And How They Will Redefine Sports” by Andrew Petcash
Next on deck…
Here’s what’s coming over the next few days:
Friday (12/12)
🏀 Hawks at Pistons
🏀 T-Wolves at Warriors
🏒 Kraken at Mammoth
🏀 Texas at UConn
Saturday (12/13)
🏀 Knicks vs. Magic (NBA Cup semifinals)
🏀 Thunder vs. Spurs (NBA Cup semifinals)
🏈 Army vs. Navy
🏈 Heisman Trophy presentation 🏆
🏒 Panthers at Stars
🏒 Capitals at Jets
🏒 Oilers at Maple Leafs
🏀 Arkansas at Texas Tech
🏀 Nebraska at Illinois
🏀 Arizona at Alabama
🏀 UCLA at Gonzaga
🏀 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (WBB)
🏀 UConn at USC (WBB)
⚽ Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Liverpool (Premier League)
Sunday (12/14)
🏈 Lions at Rams
🏈 Packers at Broncos
🏈 Bills at Patriots
🏈 Ravens at Bengals
🏈 Chargers at Chiefs
🏈 Colts at Seahawks
🏀 Lakers at Suns
🏀 Warriors at Blazers
🏒 Flyers at Hurricanes
🏒 Oilers at Canadiens
🏀 Baylor at Texas (WBB)
🏀 Louisville at UNC (WBB)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.