Heat vs Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props

Pelicans vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Wednesday‘s game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Pelicans.

Pelicans vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 45 away games (+23.80 Units / 42% ROI)

The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 33 of their last 45 away games (+20.50 Units / 40% ROI)

The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.95 Units / 31% ROI)

The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 away games (+14.40 Units / 23% ROI)

The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 away games (+10.75 Units / 21% ROI)

Pelicans Best Bets for Tonight:

The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+12.45 Units / 68% ROI)

The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 48% ROI)

The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.65 Units / 52% ROI)

The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)

The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 30-24 (+3.6 Units / 5.95% ROI).

28-27 against the Moneyline (-2.2 Units / -2.37% ROI)

27-27 against the Over for game total points (-2.7 Units / -4.46% ROI)

27-27 against the Under for game total points (-2.7 Units / -4.46% ROI)

New Orleans Pelicans Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pelicans have gone 30-25 (+2.5 Units / 4.13% ROI).

15-40 against the Moneyline (-14.9 Units / -24.55% ROI)

27-28 against the Over for game total points (-3.8 Units / -6.28% ROI)

28-27 against the Under for game total points (-1.7 Units / -2.81% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Pelicans:

The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 23 games (-16.50 Units / -61% ROI)

The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 35 games at home (-14.75 Units / -36% ROI)

The New Orleans Pelicans have only covered the 4Q Spread in 15 of their last 40 games (-14.20 Units / -31% ROI)

The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 40 games at home (-13.90 Units / -30% ROI)

The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 22 games (-10.52 Units / -41% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 45 games (-20.75 Units / -35% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 15 of their last 45 games (-19.45 Units / -38% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 45 away games (-16.75 Units / -33% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only covered the 2H Spread in 17 of their last 45 games (-15.50 Units / -30% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 17 of their last 45 games (-14.69 Units / -23% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Pelicans

The Heat are 3-16 (.158) when they lose the turnover margin this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .399

The Heat are 9-13 (.409) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .553

The Heat are 16-10 (.615) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .519

The Heat were 6-21 (.222) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .354

New Orleans Pelicans: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pelicans are 5-22 (.185) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .463

The Pelicans are 1-15 (.062) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .307

The Pelicans are 1-17 (.056) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2024-25 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Pelicans were 2-10 (.167) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 121.5 points per game (3,281 points/27 games) at home this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 116.4

The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat averaged 12.0 second chance points per game (982 points/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Heat averaged 1.19 points per shot (1,213 points/1,016 shots) in close and late situations last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31

New Orleans Pelicans Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have averaged 61.2 points in the paint per game (1,714 points/28 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.8

The Pelicans have averaged 57.2 points in the paint per game (3,144 points/55 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.6

The Pelicans have a TS% of 49% this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Pelicans have averaged 16.1 fast break points per game (883 points/55 games) this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.2

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.8 blocks per game (314 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (410 blocks/109 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (822 blocks/219 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.7 blocks per game (412 blocks/110 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

New Orleans Pelicans Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have averaged 9.0 steals per game (980 steals/109 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.9

The Pelicans allowed a TS% of 55% on the road last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%

The Pelicans allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three (558/1,639) in the first half in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%

The Pelicans averaged 8.5 steals per game (701 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2