Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Wednesday’s Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans NBA matchup.

It is a jam-packed night of NBA basketball with 14 games tipping off across the slate. Taking place at 8:00 p.m. ET, the Miami Heat will take on the New Orleans Pelicans.

This is the second and final matchup between these two cross-conference opponents. Miami produced a 125-106 victory in the first matchup, which took place on Jan. 4th.

Looking at the odds for tonight’s game, the Pelicans are narrow 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Heat hold +102 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 232.5 points.

This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Monday night matchup.

Heat at Pelicans Preview

The Miami Heat hold a 28-27 record, which currently slots them at eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They have dropped three of their past four matchups entering tonight and have dealt with some injury issues all year. Overall, the Heat have gone 31-24 against the spread, and the game total is 27-28 in the over/under.

Norman Powell, Tyler Herro and Pelle Larsson have each been ruled out for this matchup due to injury. Andrew Wiggins is also listed as questionable with toe inflammation. These are some major injuries to deal with as Powell and Herro are Miami’s two leading scorers at 23.0 points and 21.9 points per game. Wiggins has also played a key role. Bam Adebayo will see more offensive responsibility on his shoulders and look to add to his averages of 18.3 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic and Davion Mitchell also play notable roles.

Miami changed up its offensive identity in a major way coming into the season. It leads the NBA in pace and runs pick-and-rolls at a very infrequent rate compared to the rest of the league. The Heat rank fourth in the league in scoring at 119.5 points per game. Miami also ranks 19th in offensive rating, 20th in field-goal percentage and 13th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 117.3 points per game, which ranks 21st in the NBA. Miami also ranks fourth in defensive rating, sixth in opponent field-goal percentage and fifth in three-point percentage allowed.

The New Orleans Pelicans hold a 15-40 record on the season, which slots them at 14th place in the Western Conference. They are coming off back-to-back wins over the Kings and Timberwolves entering the matchup tonight. Overall, New Orleans has gone 30-24-1 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 28 of the 55 games it has played.

Dejounte Murray will remain sidelined as he recovers from his Achilles tear, while Micah Potter is listed as questionable due to a toe sprain. One of the more encouraging storylines this year has been Zion Williamson being available at a regular rate. The former number one overall pick is set to play his 40th game of the season and is posting averages of 21.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. It is Trey Murphy III who leads the team in scoring with 22.2 points per game, along with 5.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists. Saddiq Bey has been a breakout story of the year, while first-round rookies Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears have each shown some flashes of potential.

As a team, the Pelicans are scoring 114.7 points per game, which ranks 21st in the NBA. New Orleans also ranks 23rd in offensive rating, 21st in field-goal percentage, 24th in three-point percentage and 14th in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 120.4 points per game, which is the fifth-most in the NBA. The Pelicans also rank 27th in defensive rating, 24th in opponent field-goal percentage, 11th in opponent three-point percentage, and are allowing the second-most perimeter shots per game.

Heat at Pelicans Prediction, Best Bet

While the Heat have been the better team this season, this is a spot where I like the Pelicans to pick up a victory. Miami will be without its two top scorers and limited in its offensive attack. It is not easy to replace a combined 44.9 points per game, and Powell has played himself into his first All-Star appearance as a result of his strong performances all year.

In contrast, this has been a Pelicans team that has not played up to the caliber of talent on their roster this season. They slipped to a 3-22 record to start the year but have shown some progress since this point. The Pelicans are 5-4 across their past nine games, which includes victories over the Timberwolves and Spurs.

When he is at his best, Zion Williamson is the best basketball player on most courts he walks on. It has been encouraging that this has happened at a more regular rate as of late. Expect there to be no answer on this Miami roster for Williamson’s combination of size and speed. Derik Queen also provides a different look as a strong playmaker at the big man spot that should cause issues against this Miami defense.

While it has not translated to wins at the rate the Pelicans desire, New Orleans is 5-0 against the spread this season as a home favorite and 6-1 against the spread as a favorite overall. The Pelicans are also 9-5 against the spread after a win and 17-10-1 when playing at home.

Expect the injuries to this Heat team to prove too problematic and for the Pelicans to pick up their 16th victory of the season tonight. New Orleans has too much talent to continue being bottom-feeders of the league and that is part of the reason Willie Green was already fired this year. There has been a more regular rate of positive flashes from the collective team as of late and this is a prime opportunity for it to capitalize. Expect the absence of Powell and Herro to prove too much for the Heat and for the Pelicans to capitalize on the opportunity to get the win tonight. It is not too often that the Pelicans have a talent advantage, and expect Erik Spoelstra to be unable to generate enough offense for his team to compete. I am backing the moneyline for some added reassurance, but this is not a matchup that I expect you to be sweating the 1.5-point hook.

Best Bet: Pelicans Moneyline (-122)