Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Trail Blazers at Timberwolves on Wednesday.

With some 30 games remaining in the NBA season for most teams, it might be too early to start thinking about playoff positioning, but in the Western Conference, the top 10 teams are virtually set, with all the teams from 11th and below far behind and/or tanking. That means that tonight’s game between the 26-28 Portland Trail Blazers and the 33-22 Minnesota Timberwolves could be a potential Play-In Tournament preview.

Portland’s only rotation player with an injury designation is shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe, who’s out with a calf strain. Minnesota, meanwhile, should be fairly healthy as well, though Anthony Edwards is questionable with an illness.

The Timberwolves are 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-230 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 233.5. The Trail Blazers are +190 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down each team’s final pre-All-Star break game and offer a prediction.

Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves preview, prediction

After a strange cold stretch last month, Minnesota has once again discovered championship-level form, winning six of its last nine games, and Edwards has been on quite the tear, scoring 30 or more points in five of his last six games. The Timberwolves were relatively quiet at the trade deadline, as they tried to negotiate a potential deal for the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the player they settled on — Ayo Dosunmu — has been tremendous in his first two games with the team, averaging 16.0 points per game. Adding Dosunmu to an experienced core of Edwards, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert increases Minnesota’s chances of making it past the conference finals, where it has fallen in each of the past two seasons.

Portland has been much more inconsistent. The Trail Blazers rattled off four straight wins, dropped six in a row, and have won each of their last three to climb back ahead of the LA Clippers for ninth in the Western Conference. Newly-minted All-Star Deni Avdija’s absence was a major reason for the cold streak, as he missed four of the six defeats, but he just returned with a brilliant performance on Monday and should continue to be effective tonight. Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson, each of whom has been absent for much of the season, are both now back to full health, so a Portland team that had been desperate for some guard play just got two of its better pieces back.

Trail Blazers at Timberwolves pick, best bet

One key for the Trail Blazers between now and the end of the season will be to re-discover the defensive form that they had in the last 41 games of the 2024-25 campaign, when they had the league’s third-best defensive rating. That hasn’t quite happened, but over the last 15 games — in which Holiday has played 13 — they’ve improved to 16th overall defensively, and they could be slightly better without the defensively-limited Sharpe on the court. Still, Portland isn’t as good on either side of the ball as Minnesota, one of just five teams to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating.

Offensive aggression will be the key for the Trail Blazers, who will have a tough test against a Timberwolves team that has limited opponents to the fifth-lowest field goal percentage inside the restricted area. But the more Portland gets downhill, the more shots will fall, and Minnesota’s perimeter players have allowed a reasonably high volume in the paint, something Dosunmu — a defensive downgrade relative to Mike Conley — likely won’t help with. To be fair, the Trail Blazers have done a better job getting into the paint than the Timberwolves have, but Portland’s rim protection isn’t quite as strong. All in all, Minnesota ranks 15th in points in the paint and the Trail Blazers 19th, so its advantage is very slight.

The teams remain evenly-matched on the glass, with Portland ranking fifth in total rebounding percentage and the Timberwolves ninth. The Trail Blazers also rank first in second-chance points per game. Portland’s main issue, though, is that it has been the league’s most turnover-prone team (even under Holiday’s tutelage across the last 15 games) and Minnesota has done an above-average job taking advantage of opponents’ mistakes. The Trail Blazers could make up for some of that deficit if they’re able to take advantage of the Timberwolves’ foul-prone nature, but besides Avdija, they haven’t been very good at drawing contact.

Three-point shooting is where Minnesota pulls away. This season, the Timberwolves rank fourth in three-point percentage and Portland ranks second-to-last, which isn’t entirely a fluke. The good news for the Trail Blazers is that they’ve generated the third-most wide-open three-point attempts — 3.4 more per game than Minnesota — but that’s in large part because three of their four qualified shooters — Donovan Clingan, Sharpe, and Avdija — have connected on their three-pointers at a lower rate than expected. On the other hand, the Timberwolves have five of the league’s top 47 players by three-point percentage over expectation, so a Portland defense that gives up the the sixth-most wide-open threes is a dream matchup. New Trail Blazer Vít Krejči — a 42.3% three-point shooter with the Atlanta Hawks — could make up some of that difference, but even with Krejči, the disparity is large.

With Minnesota having significantly more shooting talent but Portland generating a healthier shot diet, it’s possible that this game could be close. However, home-court advantage — a net swing of 7.4 points per 100 possessions in the Timberwolves’ favor — should tip this game just across the spread line.

Best bet: Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 (-110)