Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns game on Wednesday’s NBA slate.

The Oklahoma City Thunder looked infallible through the season’s early months, but recent weeks have shown the reigning champs may be mortal after all. Now operating without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander while the MVP deals with an injury, the team has lost two of its three games in his absence and gets a date with the Phoenix Suns tonight. Can this OKC group take down another playoff-caliber squad in the desert?

Here’s a Thunder vs. Suns prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s game.

Thunder vs. Suns prediction, preview

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder remain atop the league with 41 wins and just 13 losses, 3.5 games ahead of second place in the Western Conference at that. Surviving without Gilgeous-Alexander won’t be the easiest task, but there are plenty of difference-making players left available and the team will have to lean on its chemistry as a group to succeed in the absence of its star. After dropping games to the Spurs and Rockets before beating the Lakers on Monday, Oklahoma City now looks to limp into the All-Star break after this back-to-back ends.

The Thunder are 17th in pace and lead the NBA with a NETRTG of +11.8, by far the league’s best mark. However, the team’s NETRTG is +15.5 with Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor but falls to just +4.9 when he’s off, and their OFFRTG sees a 12.7-point difference in those splits. The impact he creates is even more evident than beyond the eye test and box score. While Oklahoma City averages 119.9 PPG, that mark sits at 115.8 in five games without the star this season. The Thunder also dish out 25.5 assists per game with the fourth-best AST/TO ratio, shooting 48.7% from the field and 36.1% from three as well. Defensively, they allow a league-low 108.0 PPG to opponents, pulling down 43.7 rebounds and creating the second-most opponent turnovers of any team.

This unit will miss the 31.8 points and 6.4 assists of its superstar, but there are other players who can help shoulder the load. Chet Homgren sits second on the roster with 17.6 points and 8.7 rebounds, while Jalen Williams averages 17.1 points with 5.4 assists. In three games without SGA this season, Williams’ numbers sit at 24.7 points and 6.3 assists, though his efficiency remains an issue. Isaiah Hartenstin posts 10.7 points with a team-best 9.9 boards as the starting center, too. Aaron Wiggins averages 10.7 points while shooting 39.2% from three, and Isaiah Joe shoots an even better 40.3% from deep with 10.2 points as well.

Phoenix Suns

Expectations for the Suns prior to the campaign were quite low, but first-year head coach Jordan Ott has his team sitting 32-22 at seventh in the Western Conference. They’ve become a very feisty bunch that makes life difficult for opponents, even without a true costar alongside Devin Booker. After beating the Mavericks last night, they now look to secure a win tonight in their last game before the All-Star festivities begin.

Phoenix ranks 22nd in pace and 10th in NETRTG at +2.4. The unit hangs its hat on defense, holding opponents to just 111.4 PPG, the fifth-lowest mark in the NBA while producing the eighth-best DEFRTG in the process. The Suns largely shut their foes down from beyond the arc, slowing the tempo in general to limit shot opportunities and keep scoring down. They’re far from elite in most other aspects though, pulling down just 43.1 rebounds and dishing 25.0 assists with the 23rd-ranked AST/TO ratio. The Suns score just 113.7 PPG and are inefficient overall with a 46.0% FG%, but a 36.4% 3P% ranks 10th and they make the eighth-most threes per game.

Devin Booker returned from an injury-related absence two games ago, and while he’s yet to score 20 points in a contest since coming back, he leads the roster with 25.2 points per contest along with 6.3 assists. Dillon Brooks’ emergence as a legitimate threat on offense is notable as he contributes 21.2 PPG, but third-leading scorer Grayson Allen won’t play tonight due to a knee sprain and will be re-evaluated after the All-Star period. While he’s played very little this season while dealing with hamstring issues, Jalen Green averages 11.1 PPG in just over 15 MPG and can get hot in a hurry, so his role should grow moving forward. Guard Collin Gillespie also contributes 13.4 PPG as a sniper from deep at 43.6%, and Mark Williams brings 12.2 points with a team-high 8.2 boards.

However, both Booker (injury management) and Green (injury management) are questionable tonight.

Thunder vs. Suns pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Thunder as -8.5 road favorites tonight with -325 odds on the Moneyline. The Suns are +240 ML underdogs with the game total set at 213.5 points.

The statuses of Booker and Green are sure to play a massive role tonight. If the former misses in particular, it may spell real trouble for Phoenix. Despite Booker’s career-low three-point percentage and issues connecting from the field, he does give this offense a leader it doesn’t have otherwise. Without him, the Suns are just 5-6 and average only 106.2 PPG, a swing of 7.5 points compared to the team’s season-long mark. They’ll need every bit of firepower to compete with a Thunder unit that still has a couple of current/former All-Stars in Holmgren and Williams, who are complemented by excellent role players throughout the rotation.

If Booker plays, I like Phoenix to cover as it slows the tempo and makes this a knock-down, drag-out fight. If he’s sidelined, though, Oklahoma City can still notch at least a nine-point win and should secure a straight victory regardless of his status.

Top pick: PHX Suns -8.5 (-112)