Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Washington Huskies and the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Seattle is built for winter travel games, and this one has that “last flight out” mood. The Penn State Nittany Lions arrive at 10-14 with a 1-12 league scar, and every night feels like a search party. The Washington Huskies sit 12-12 and still need tangible wins in the Big Ten Conference grind. The building matters here, because Alaska Airlines Arena at Hec Edmundson Pavilion can turn a run into a tidal pull. This is the kind of spot where structure beats optimism and the glass decides whether the game ever breathes. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Washington Huskies and the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
I keep coming back to the way Washington’s strengths line up with Penn State’s weak joints. Penn State’s defense is a leak everywhere, sitting 363rd in opponent eFG%, 359th in opponent 2P%, and 355th in opponent 3P%. Washington’s offense is not a shooting clinic, but it does not need to be against that profile. The broader efficiency gap backs it up, too, with Washington’s defense grading top-55 on TeamRankings (102.8) while Penn State sits in the 170s (108.5). Penn State is also giving up 79.6 points per game, and Washington is holding opponents to 73.5, which is the kind of baseline gap that shows up even when shooting runs cold. The real separator is volume, because Washington lives on extra shots and second efforts. Washington posts a 39.1% offensive rebounding rate, eighth nationally, and grabs 12.3 offensive boards per game, while Penn State sits at 25.5% and only 7.7. Penn State’s overall rebounding profile is a problem, too, down at 29.8 rebounds per game, so the miss-to-putback loop is always live. When one side can miss and still score, the margin grows without needing a heater. And when the foul window opens, Washington’s 77.2% at the line gives the favorite a real closing gear.
The names fit the math, and the national context is real. Franck Kepnang anchors a rim wall with five blocks per game as a team and a 10.1% block rate, both sixth nationally, and his own finishing is clean at 74.2% from the field with 2.3 blocks. That forces Penn State into floaters and late-clock jumpers, not clean layups, and it also turns misses into transition chances the other way. Hannes Steinbach is the motor behind the glass edge, playing like a nightly double-double threat at 14.8 points and 11.2 rebounds, which pairs perfectly with Washington’s elite offensive rebounding rate. Great Osobor ties it together as a bruiser who can also pass, sitting at 14.0 points, 8.4 boards, and 3.5 assists, so Washington can score without living on jumpers.
On the other side, Penn State’s hope lives in guards who can manufacture points without help and keep the game clean. Freddie Dilione V leads at 14.5 points and shoots 82.5% at the stripe, but he is a 29.8% three-point shooter, which tightens the scoring ceiling. Kayden Mingo is the chaos lever at 13.4 points, 4.4 assists, and 2.2 steals, the one player who can tilt possessions with pressure, especially because Washington doesn’t naturally force turnovers at a high rate. If Eli Rice is healthy enough to matter, his 45.9% from three is the one true heater ingredient, but Penn State still has to survive the glass to make that path cashable.
Penn State vs. Washington pick, best bet
The counter is obvious, and it’s the only way the big number gets sweaty. Washington is not a perimeter machine, sitting at 30.5% from three and 48.3% eFG%, so a cold stretch can keep Penn State hanging around. Penn State also protects the ball, with a 12.7% turnover rate that ranks 45th, and that matters against a Washington defense that rarely wins with live-ball chaos. Washington forces turnovers on just 12.5% of opponent trips, 351st nationally, and it only posts 5.3 steals per game. If this turns into a clean possession trade, the dog can breathe longer than it should. Penn State can also score inside when it actually gets to its spots, hitting 55.7% on twos, 55th nationally, and that’s the one scoring lane that isn’t three-dependent. I still come back to the same rebuttal: Penn State’s defense gives up clean looks everywhere, and even average Washington offense turns functional when the opponent is that soft on both twos and threes. Washington also defends with real shape, holding opponents to a 50.0% eFG and 32.0% from three, so Penn State’s escape hatch is thin if the paint gets crowded.
So I’m taking Washington -12.5 at the board number, and I’m comfortable doing it with the half point attached. Penn State is 1-6 on the road, and this is a travel spot where small slippage turns into a run. Washington has been in decent recent rhythm, going 4-1 ATS over its last five, and that matters with a number this big. The tempo profile also supports margin chances instead of a pure halfcourt slog, with both teams living around the 69-71 possessions range, which creates more rebounding and free-throw events. Washington’s profile is built for closing, too, because it shoots 77.2% at the line, 29th nationally, and that’s how favorites turn eight-point leads into fourteen when the foul window opens. The total at 153.5 reads like a pace tax, but the cleaner angle is the side, because Washington’s edge is repeatable and not dependent on three-point variance. The fragility is simple: if Washington’s offense stalls early and the game never opens, the backdoor becomes live, but the deeper levers still point to the favorite.
Washington should lean into two-big minutes and win the night with bodies, not jumpers, because the possession edge is the surest accelerant. It should crash from the wings, live on second shots, and let Kepnang erase mistakes at the rim while Steinbach keeps possessions alive. Penn State should try to keep the floor spaced, play clean, and turn every miss into a scramble decision, because it cannot win a straight-up rebounding fight. I expect Washington to stack extra attempts, stack paint touches, and make Penn State score against a defense that holds opponents down on both twos and threes.
Predicted score: Washington 84, Penn State 68.
Best bet: Washington -12.5 (-110) vs. Penn State
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