Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

When we kicked off the 2026 edition of Bubble Watch last week, the health of the bubble felt “weak” relative to prior seasons. Many teams lacked key wins, even teams likely on the correct side of the cutline. Top squads have been hard to beat, largely holding serve against at-large hopefuls.

This week, though, the bubblers struck back. Wisconsin won at Illinois, TCU toppled Iowa State, Virginia Tech won at Clemson, Miami (Fla.) court-stormed North Carolina. Even more fringe Q1 results, like Missouri’s win at Texas A&M, bolstered the bubble.

Those kinds of difference-making results cause real shifts in the at-large portrait, and we tried to properly repaint the lines here at Bubble Watch. With Selection Sunday creeping ever closer, a single game can have an increasingly consequential impact on a team’s probability of making or missing the NCAA Tournament.

However, if your team did not collect one of these notable triumphs this week, do not panic. Most teams have six or seven contests remaining before conference tournaments, so the paint is far from dry.

Check out the primer below before you dive in; many of the key terms will be repeated throughout the article. And for a projection of the actual bracket, here’s Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch.

Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
Locks are teams that have reached a 100 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast. This blends both current resume and rest-of-season projections.
Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration — a win away from being a couple of wins away.
Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Movement

Up to Lock: Alabama, Arkansas, Louisville, North Carolina, St. John’s
Up to Should Be In: Kentucky, NC State, Utah State, Wisconsin
Up to In the Mix: Boise State
Added to On the Fringe: Liberty
Down to In the Mix: None
Down to On the Fringe: None
Dropped from On the Fringe: Butler, Creighton, Grand Canyon, Tulsa, Washington

Current totals

Locks: 23
Should Be In: 9
In the Mix: 24
On the Fringe: 8

UNC moved into Lock status after Seth Trimble’s game winner against Duke. (Grant Halverson / Getty Images)

ACC

Locks: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia
Should Be In: Clemson, NC State
In the Mix: California, Miami (Fla.), SMU, Virginia Tech
On the Fringe: Stanford

Should Be In

Clemson (20-5, 10-2)
What They Need: Clemson demolished Cal in Berkeley over the weekend, pushing ever closer to Lock status. A home loss to Virginia Tech stalled that momentum somewhat, but the Tigers are still in great position with a few weeks left. A win at Duke on Saturday would seal the deal while also ramping up the ACC title drama, but even a loss there and a win at Wake Forest should do the trick.

NC State (18-7, 9-3)
What They Need: A 1-1 week – even one that included a 41-point loss at Louisville – was enough to elevate the Wolfpack into Should Be In status. A home sweep this week against Miami and UNC might vault them into Lock world, but another split would keep Will Wade’s bunch in good standing. The remaining schedule holds no true “bad loss” danger, so NC State just needs to add another couple of wins to ensure safety.

In the Mix

California (17-8, 5-7)
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins, zero bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Awful nonconference SOS, 4-8 against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Brutal week for the Golden Bears. They never had a chance against Clemson at home, getting routed by 22 points, and then they went all the way to Syracuse to lose a double-overtime heartbreaker to the Orange. They now face a strenuous uphill climb to safety, and they absolutely cannot lose at Boston College on Saturday. After that, Cal gets a week off to travel home and prepare for rival Stanford.

Miami (Fla.) (19-5, 8-3)
Profile Strengths: 7-4 against top two quadrants, competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1A wins atop profile, Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: Tremendous week for the Hurricanes. They took care of business at Boston College on Saturday, avoiding a harmful loss, and followed that up by knocking off UNC on Tuesday (and storming the court, we might add). That result likely pushed Miami into the field, and a split this week — at NC State on Saturday, hosting Virginia Tech Tuesday — should keep it there.

SMU (17-7, 6-5)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, impressive metrics across the board.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1A wins headlining profile.
Looking Ahead: The Mustangs handled both Pitt and Notre Dame, solidifying their position within the NCAA Tournament field. Their seed ceiling is limited by a lack of top-end quality, but the neutral-court victory over Texas A&M continues to age well. SMU’s remaining schedule has some tricky spots, starting with a trek to Syracuse on Saturday, but a split between the Orange and hosting Louisville would nudge the Ponies up to Should Be In by next week. As would a sweep.

Virginia Tech (17-8, 6-6)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, good resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, still need more key wins.
Looking Ahead: The Hokies desperately needed a momentum-shifting victory, and on Wednesday they went and got one. They led nearly wire-to-wire at Clemson, controlling the second half on the road against a surefire NCAA Tournament team. That’s a pivotal result to potentially swing their fate. Mike Young’s squad now gets a dangerous game against improving Florida State before a trip down to Coral Gables for a seismic bubble showdown with Miami.

Steve Lutz and Oklahoma State went 0-2 against the Big 12’s Arizona schools last week, leaving them with much work to do. (John E. Moore III / Getty Images)

Big 12

Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should Be In: UCF
In the Mix: Oklahoma State, TCU
On the Fringe: Baylor, Cincinnati, West Virginia

Should Be In

UCF (17-6, 6-5)
What They Need: UCF lost its only game in the past week, a disappointing 92-72 drubbing at Cincinnati last Saturday. That hurt the Knights’ already-poor quality metrics, but with a resume metrics average in the 20s, this is still an extremely likely NCAA Tournament team. Losing two home games this week (West Virginia on Saturday, TCU on Tuesday) would be playing with fire, though, so we’d highly recommend Johnny Dawkins’ team to put the kerosene down and get a win (or two).

In the Mix

Oklahoma State (16-8, 4-7)
Profile Strengths: Seven wins against the top two quadrants, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: The Cowboys may want to stay out of the state of Arizona for a while. On Saturday in Tucson, they lost by a staggering 37 points to Arizona, and they followed it with a sloppy defeat at Arizona State on Tuesday. They are not dead yet, but that’s a brutal week for a team that needed to supplement its big win over BYU. They absolutely have to have this weekend’s home game against bubble rival TCU. Then, Bill Self comes to visit his alma mater in Stillwater on Wednesday, a pivotal moment in Oklahoma State’s season.

TCU (15-9, 5-6)
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Q3 and Q4 losses, lagging metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Horned Frogs continue to be the most eccentric team in bubble land. They nearly disappeared from the Watch entirely on Saturday, needing a furious late comeback to barely escape at home against Kansas State. Then, they notched a gigantic, needle-moving upset over Iowa State on Tuesday, complete with a court storm. Suddenly, the Horned Frogs’ bizarre resume is starting to look viable despite the harmful losses. Upcoming road games at Oklahoma State and UCF, both of whom have looked vulnerable, offer additional chances.

A.J. Staton-McCray and Seton Hall might be on the wrong side of the bubble now, but have opportunities remaining against UConn and St. John’s. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)

Big East

Locks: St. John’s, UConn
Should Be In: Villanova
In the Mix: Seton Hall
On the Fringe: None

Should Be In

Villanova (19-5, 10-3)
What They Need: Thanks to a late surge, the Wildcats escaped a Q3 loss on Tuesday, flipping a late 72-66 deficit into a 77-74 victory in the final three minutes against Marquette. Creighton’s slide down the NET means that Nova’s home loss to the Bluejays currently sits in Q3, so a second such defeat could have been harmful. On the other hand, the Wildcats’ win over Wisconsin continues to age well. A Midwest road trip to Creighton and Xavier awaits this week, and a split would be totally acceptable.

In the Mix

Seton Hall (17-8, 7-7)
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Dodgy metrics, only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: The Pirates saved par this week, coming from behind to beat Providence on Wednesday after losing at Creighton over the weekend. Unfortunately, pars likely will not get Seton Hall to the NCAA Tournament; Shaheen Holloway and company need to knock in some birdies. They do not get any chances to do so until Feb. 28 at UConn, though, so it must be another week of making par at Butler (Saturday) and versus DePaul (Wednesday). Anything less than a sweep registers as a bogey.

Bennett Stirtz and Iowa took a bad loss to Maryland this week, keeping them from Lock status for now. (Matthew Holst / Getty Images)

Big Ten

Locks: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue
Should Be In: Iowa, Wisconsin
In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio St., UCLA, USC
On the Fringe: None

Should Be In

Iowa (18-6, 8-5)
What They Need: And just like that, the good vibes are gone. Iowa’s six-game winning streak was snapped Wednesday at Maryland, a loss that currently sits as a Q3 defeat. I moved the Hawkeyes up to Should Be In despite that, as Bart’s TourneyCast has them at 100 percent to earn an at-large bid. That’s a bridge too far for me, considering their resume metrics are equal to bubblers like USC and Saint Mary’s, so I avoided bumping them to Lock status. The next three games could all be losses (vs. Purdue, vs. Nebraska, at Wisconsin), but a big win or two would quickly erase the disappointing result against the Terrapins.

Wisconsin (17-7, 9-4)
What They Need: The Badgers only went 1-1 this week … but when the win is an enormous road victory at Illinois and the loss is a harmless OT defeat at Indiana, you create some serious upward momentum! Wisconsin was already on the stronger end of the bubble, buoyed by the victory at Michigan, and backing that one up with another top-shelf Big Ten road triumph was enough to nudge the Badgers up a category. They can get awfully close to Lock status with a Friday night win over Michigan State in Madison, though a Q1 win at Ohio State on Tuesday would be acceptable as well.

In the Mix

Indiana (17-8, 8-6)
Profile Strengths: Two excellent high-end Q1A victories, terrific quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: 4-8 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: It took some grit, but the Hoosiers managed another 2-0 week via a wild overtime win against Wisconsin on Saturday and a Lamar Wilkerson explosion against Oregon on Monday. That keeps IU comfortably inside the field, and this week is all opportunity: a Sunday road trip to Illinois and a chance to sweep rival Purdue on Friday.

Ohio State (16-8, 8-6)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins.
Looking Ahead: The Buckeyes used a strong second half to edge out USC in a significant bubble showdown on Wednesday, bouncing back from getting shellacked by rival Michigan on Sunday. Ohio State still has an ugly 0-7 Q1 record, but everything else on this profile is clean and presentable. Q1 opportunities abound down the stretch, starting with a rare February nonconference tilt against Virginia in Nashville on Saturday. The Buckeyes have a ton of upward mobility if they can knock off a top team or two.

UCLA (17-7, 9-4)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: 2-6 against Q1 opponents.
Looking Ahead: Deep breath, Bruins fans. UCLA had a week off before the daunting trip to the Michigan schools begins this weekend. A split would be monumental for the Bruins’ NCAA Tournament chances, though holding up in the paint against either squad could be a challenge. Of course, UCLA nearly knocked off Arizona and its supersized frontcourt, so perhaps Mick Cronin’s team will dig into the toughness bucket and pull out a seismic Q1A victory.

USC (18-7, 7-7)
Profile Strengths: Overall record and Q1/Q2 records both strong, excellent resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Took a Q3 loss, lacking in true high-end wins (zero Q1A).
Looking Ahead: The Trojans’ injuries are adding up, and their depth limitations hampered them against Ohio State on Wednesday. Fortunately, star freshman Alijah Arenas has broken out at the perfect time, and his heroics saved USC against Penn State over the weekend. USC is in good shape today via its resume metrics, but the forward-looking prognosis is scarier considering its personnel shortcomings (it needs Chad Baker-Mazara back) and a challenging final six games. A full week off comes at the perfect time before it hosts Illinois on Wednesday.

Bucky McMillan and Texas A&M have fallen back to the SEC middle of the pack after three straight losses. (Tim Warner / Getty Images)

SEC

Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Kentucky
In the Mix: Auburn, Georgia, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
On the Fringe: None

Should Be In

Kentucky (17-7, 8-3)
What They Need: Respect to Mark Pope and Kentucky. After being left for dead by most of Big Blue Nation, the Wildcats have churned out win after win, and there is a world where they are in sole possession of first place in the SEC after this weekend. That requires winning at Florida, but considering the run of clutch performances UK is on, who are we to doubt these Wildcats? Kentucky is now closer to a Lock than being in any at-large danger. Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast has UK all the way up to a 98.8 percent chance at an at-large.

In the Mix

Auburn (14-10, 5-6)
Profile Strengths: Outstanding metrics, four Q1 wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses.
Looking Ahead: Last week, I said this about Steven Pearl’s team: “Auburn is probably a win away from pushing up to the ‘Should Be In’ category … but they have another brutal schedule stretch ahead (vs. Alabama, vs. Vanderbilt, at Arkansas). They could theoretically be 14-11 (5-7) after Valentine’s Day with work to do.” After the Tigers lost two home games, they are two-thirds of the way there, and with Arkansas playing extremely well, that trip to Fayetteville is an immense challenge. Auburn’s metrics remain great, but this could get dicey if the Tigers do not finish well against the SEC’s lesser squads.

Georgia (17-7, 5-6)
Profile Strengths: Solid metrics, three Q1 wins and 8-6 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, took a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Bulldogs remain in solid shape today, but you can call them Kenny Loggins — on the highway to the danger zone after losing four of five. They split this week, but a win at LSU may not stay Q1 for long, considering how the Tigers are playing, and getting blasted by 20 at home by Florida was doubly harmful. First, it knocked down Georgia’s quality metrics. And second, it wasted a needle-moving home chance. Georgia now faces two losable road games at Oklahoma (Saturday) and Kentucky (Tuesday); Mike White’s team needs to find some positive momentum or it risks drifting out of the field.

Missouri (17-7, 7-4)
Profile Strengths: Two headline Q1A wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero notable nonconference wins.
Looking Ahead: Missouri is one of the purest distillations of a bubble team we have this year. Its metrics and win profile are all firmly entrenched around the cutline. The Tigers did nothing in nonconference play, but they have rallied against SEC opponents and got a crucial road victory at Texas A&M on Wednesday. The schedule gets mighty tough now, with four straight games against likely NCAA Tournament teams, starting with hosting Texas (Saturday) and Vandy (Wednesday).

Texas (15-9, 6-5)
Profile Strengths: Strong high-end wins and quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Have a Q3 loss, 5-8 .500 against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Texas played with fire on Saturday, trailing Ole Miss by 3 in Austin with three minutes to play. The Longhorns closed on a 14-0 run to erase any fear, and now they have had a week off to prepare for a massive Valentine’s Day bubble battle at Missouri. The Longhorns need more wins to support the top-end strength on their profile.

Texas A&M (17-7, 7-4)
Profile Strengths: Three Q1A wins atop the resume, no bad losses, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor NC SOS, worsening resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Aggies have dropped three straight games, weakening their computer profile and putting their at-large candidacy in a more stressful situation. The 1-point Wednesday home loss to Missouri was crushing. Bucky McMillan’s team now must travel to Vanderbilt on Saturday before a must-win home “gimme” against Ole Miss. The SEC title hopes are likely dashed, but regrouping to solidify NCAA Tournament chances is vital.

Could Santa Clara make the West Coast Conference a three-bid league? (James Snook / Imagn Images)

The Rest

Locks: Gonzaga
Should Be In: Saint Louis, Utah St.
In the Mix: Boise State, Miami (OH), New Mexico, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, Santa Clara, VCU
On the Fringe: Belmont, George Mason, Liberty, Nevada

Should Be In

Saint Louis (23-1, 11-0 Atlantic 10)
What They Need: It was not a typical instant SLU demolition, but the Billikens eventually beat La Salle by 24 over the weekend. They now head to Loyola Chicago on Saturday to face the A-10’s worst team. Torvik’s T-Rank actually has the Bills at 100 percent to get an at-large, but I want to make sure they dismantle the Ramblers before anointing them to Lock status next week. If they avoid the Q4 disaster, even a loss at Rhode Island next week would not prevent them from clinching a bid.

Utah State (21-3, 12-2 Mountain West)
What They Need: Two more wins this past week have the Aggies eyeing Lock status. That’s particularly true based on the remaining schedule, which is limited in damaging loss candidates. A rare nonconference tilt awaits Saturday with Penny Hardaway’s Memphis coming to Logan, followed by a gantlet (vs. Boise State, at Nevada, at San Diego State, vs. Grand Canyon) that will decide the fate of the Mountain West title race.

In the Mix

Boise State (15-9, 7-6 Mountain West)
Profile Strengths: Three Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Shaky metrics, Q3 loss, non-Division I home loss.
Looking Ahead: The Broncos have won six of their last seven to give themselves an outside chance at a bubble charge. Their most recent victory, a harrowing 1-point result at New Mexico, was the most important of that bunch — with the Lobos are lurking right around the cutline as well. The opening night loss to Hawaii Pacific really complicates things, as it is not factored into Boise’s metrics and should be acknowledged by the committee. This candidacy remains a steep uphill climb.

Miami (Ohio) (24-0, 11-0 MAC)
Profile Strengths: Undefeated!!, very good resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Horrendous NC SOS, played zero Q1 games, awful quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: The RedHawks won easily in their MAC-Sun Belt Challenge game, dominating Marshall on the road for one of their best victories of the season. They are in great shape now, but they are in such a precarious position (a two-loss week might bury them) that it is difficult to elevate them to Should Be In. Ohio comes to town Friday, followed by a Tuesday trip to UMass — which nearly won at Miami a couple of weeks ago.

New Mexico (19-6, 10-4 Mountain West)
Profile Strengths: 7-5 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Took a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Lobos earned a second Q1 win Wednesday at Grand Canyon, but only just so: As of this writing, the Antelopes are 75th in the NET, barely hanging onto the threshold to be Q1. Still, it was an important victory after New Mexico had lost two in a row. The Lobos now have essentially 10 days off, as the only game in that span is hosting league punching bag Air Force on Tuesday. New Mexico’s final four games will still make or break its at-large candidacy.

Saint Mary’s (22-4, 11-2 West Coast)
Profile Strengths: Excellent metrics, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins.
Looking Ahead: Two more games, two more blowout wins, these by a combined 53 points. The Gaels are untouchable for most of the WCC, but they went 0-2 against Gonzaga and Santa Clara in their first go-round and sorely lack key wins. Without those, they will remain a little nervous, even if everything else about them screams “at-large team.” Before season-ending rematches with the Zags and the Broncos, the Gaels must handle three road tests, starting with Pacific (Saturday) and Seattle (Wednesday).

San Diego State (17-6, 11-2 Mountain West)
Profile Strengths: Excellent NC SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: It was an extremely uneventful week for the Aztecs, as expected. They destroyed Air Force over the weekend and had the week off to rest up for an important pair of home games: Nevada (Saturday) and Grand Canyon (Tuesday). San Diego State can stay firmly in the bubble picture and the Mountain West title race with two strong performances.

Santa Clara (22-5, 13-1 West Coast)
Profile Strengths: Competitive metrics, solid Q1/Q2 record.
Profile Weaknesses: Worst loss in bubble group, only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: It was not always easy, but Santa Clara registered a 2-0 week to set up the game of the year in the WCC. The Broncos host league titan Gonzaga on Saturday night and the lead atop the standings is at stake. For Santa Clara, it is also a crucial opportunity to reinforce its at-large resume; another Q1 win would help erase the misery of the appalling defeat to Loyola Chicago.

VCU (19-6, 10-2 Atlantic 10)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins.
Looking Ahead: VCU took care of business this week, thrashing hapless Dayton and leading wire-to-wire at La Salle. This profile is still not at-large worthy, but the Rams are giving themselves a chance to make a statement at Saint Louis in a week. First, they need to win at Richmond (Saturday) and at home versus George Washington (Tuesday), but if they do, that enormous Q1A opportunity against SLU will be an at-large life raft. It is up to VCU to seize the opportunity.

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