Time to tell the truth: It’s not about health.
The Nuggets somehow, someway, boast a 35-20 record at the All-Star break. Despite a training room that triggers claustrophobia. Despite missing three-time MVP Nikola Jokic for four weeks. Despite Aaron Gordon playing in 23 games. Despite Christian Braun and Cam Johnson being sidelined for half the season.
What a ride.
What a waste.
The time away offers the Nuggets a chance to exhale. But when they return, their season will be summed up with a sigh without significant improvement.
Hate to break it to you, but the Nuggets are once again bad on defense.
With first-year coach David Adelman pulling the right levers, the Nuggets went 10-6 without Jokic. They sit third in the Western Conference.
They delivered inspiring wins at Boston and Philadelphia.
But it will not work in the playoffs.
They have 20 road wins, tied for the most in the NBA.
But they can’t beat the Cavaliers and Lakers at home?
Through 55 games, the Nuggets have raised the floor, but the ceiling threatens to remain the same.
What gives? Why the pessimism?
The Nuggets rank 24th in overall defensive rating, 29th in the clutch and they don’t force turnovers.
And you thought the Broncos were the only team that struggled to get takeaways? The Thunder have already lost as many games this season (14) as they did a year ago. Nobody in the East creates fear.
What an opportunity. What a miss.
For everything that has gone right — Jamal Murray turning into Jamall-star, the blossoming of Peyton Watson, the improvement of Jalen Pickett and Julian Strawther — there is a reason to wince.
The Nuggets have the best offense, and struggle to get stops. The NBA marveled as Denver held it together with chicken wire and duct tape without as many as four starters.
Meanwhile, those of us who predicted them to win the NBA championship — my hand is raised — wonder if another Jokic-in-his-prime season will end in disappointment.
Even the recently out-of-sync Jokic — he is averaging 4.4 turnovers per game since he returned, and has 19 over this past three games — remains inevitable offensively. And Murray has found consistency from the first bell.
But for the Nuggets to contend for another title, they must lock up opponents.
Where’s Pat Surtain II when you need him?
For all the hand-wringing over the urgency to win with the best player in the world, the Nuggets’ fate will be determined by Gordon, Watson, Braun, Bruce Brown and Spencer Jones.
Gordon is the piece that makes the puzzle fit. He can guard forwards and centers, versatility that becomes critical as half-court possessions become more central to playoff outcomes. Whether he can remain in the lineup for 16 postseason wins is a concern given his litany of calf and hamstring issues. His resume is so thick, however, that he deserves the benefit of the doubt.
Watson is young. His hamstring will be fine. The Nuggets need his length on the perimeter. It does not require squinting to see Denver falling in seven games in the second round again if they don’t defend 3-pointers better. Watson is part of that solution.
Braun is critical. When the Nuggets won it all in 2023, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was a menace capable of clinging to a top shooting guard like lint. Braun has shown the ability to be a strong on-ball defender, but can he trust his ankle this spring?
Early returns screamed no. The last three games suggest the arrow is pointing up.
Brown and Jones are reliable. Brown will dig in against the best and let the world know about it. Jones provides energy and effort that jump off the screen. The Nuggets are slow-playing converting Jones from a two-way to a standard contract because of the All-Star break and the player working his way through a concussion.
The idea that the Nuggets’ title bid hinges on Jones sounds absurd. It is not. He does not have to be a factor every night. But he will likely have to steal a game with a steal or two.
If the Nuggets don’t at least reach the NBA Finals, it would represent a bigger missed opportunity than the Broncos falling to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. At least the Broncos had an excuse. No Bo Nix and a coach who forgot to kick.
The Nuggets have leaned on injuries to provide cover for all flaws and mistakes. Just wait until everyone returns. But that misses the point.
It is not about getting the band back together. It is about playing with purpose on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets were a mess defensively last season, leaving former coach Michael Malone to rip them so viciously after a loss at Portland that I figured the coach knew he was going to be fired or wanted to be.
Compromised rotations or not, the Nuggets are not any better this season.
We can all come up with reasons why the Nuggets have not returned to their 2023 heights — too tired, too much drama, too few bench players.
The mitigation needs to stop. This team was built to win big.
Adelman, an offensive genius, needs his team to play defense like it means it. Like it matters.
You see where this is going, right? With Jokic back, the other guys have to have his back. They need to play like they did without him, by getting in front of guys, switching and producing turnovers.
Because one thing is becoming clear. If the Nuggets don’t reach their goals, there will be no defending them.
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