Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Mavericks at Lakers on Thursday.
Update: Deandre Ayton (knee) ruled out for Thursday
This time last year, vibes were high for the Los Angeles Lakers, as in 2024-25, Luka Dončić made his team debut two games before the All-Star break. Tonight, these 2025-26 Lakers will play their final game before the intermission, and while their record is similar to where they were at this point last season, expectations were somewhat higher to start the season with Dončić on the roster.
He won’t suit up tonight because of his hamstring strain when Los Angeles faces his former team, the Dallas Mavericks, at 10 p.m. ET, and Deandre Ayton (knee) has a questionable tag. The Mavericks’ injury list is long: in addition to their season-long injuries, Naji Marshall (foot) and Caleb Martin (ankle) are both questionable and Cooper Flagg (foot) is out.
The Lakers are 7.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-310 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 235.5. Dallas is +250 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the Amazon Prime nightcap and offer a prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks preview, prediction
Los Angeles is coming off of a brutal defeat against the San Antonio Spurs in which it allowed Victor Wembanyama to become the first player in NBA history to record 37 points and eight rebounds in the first half. It’s a loss that the Lakers can just brush off, as Dončić, LeBron James, Austin Reaves, Marcus Smart, Ayton, all sat out and Bronny James finished third on the team in minutes. Overall, though, Los Angeles enters the All-Star break in pretty good shape, rattling off three straight wins and only narrowly losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder (albeit without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander).
The same can’t be said for the Mavericks, who are on an eight-game losing streak, the second-longest in basketball. To be fair, they’ve faced some difficult teams over that span, with all eight defeats coming against teams in either the Play-In Tournament or playoff picture in either conference, but defeats are defeats. During the middle of that stretch, Dallas finally cut bait with Anthony Davis, dealing him to the Washington Wizards for Khris Middleton, Marvin Bagley III, and AJ Johnson, all of whom have looked fairly solid in their first few games.
Mavericks at Lakers pick, best bet
Perhaps it’s just as well for the Mavericks that Dončić won’t be facing them, given that in four career matchups, he’s averaged 33.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 10.0 assists per game. More generally, the Lakers have been a little bit worse offensively without Dončić, with their offensive rating dropping by 4.7 points per 100 possessions, and their defensive improvements haven’t been enough to make up for the disappointing offense. Dallas might also be slightly better without Flagg: despite his strong defensive bona fides, the Mavericks’ defense has been 4.7 points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench. With Flagg off the floor, Dallas has had the equivalent of the league’s fifth-best defense, though it has struggled mightily to score with or without him. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has had a top-half offense and a bottom-10 defense with or without Dončić.
The Mavericks could present the Lakers with a challenge, given their post-centric style of play. This season, they’ve averaged among the most shot attempts per game inside the restricted area, and while they could lose some of their driving juice without Flagg, who ranks 41st in on-ball interior gravity, any penetration should be fruitful against Los Angeles. The Lakers have allowed the second-highest field goal percentage in the restricted area and could be without Ayton, one of just two players on the team to have defended at least three shots per game within six feet of the basket and allowed a lower field goal percentage than expected. On the flip side, Los Angeles — the league’s best finishing team — could also be effective in the paint against Dallas, which has allowed a lot of shots close to the basket.
The Mavericks could gain some advantage on the glass with Dončić sidelined, given that the Lakers have grabbed boards at a rate 2.3 percentage points lower without him on the floor. Dallas hasn’t been great on the boards, but Bagley — who improved the Wizards’ rebounding percentage by 6.1 percentage points during his 732 minutes on the floor — will help with that. The Mavericks are also less turnover-prone than Los Angeles is and have had an even better foul differential. They’ve also been among the best teams in the fast-break.
The Lakers should have a slight shooting edge. Los Angeles isn’t a great shooting team, ranking just 19th in three-point percentage, but Dallas (27th) is even worse. Neither team has done a very good job generating easy looks, with the Lakers ranking fourth-to-last in wide-open threes per game and the Mavericks ranking dead last, though Los Angeles could be even worse in that respect tonight with Dončić sidelined. While both teams have been good at closing out on opposing shooters, the Lakers have been slightly better and have gotten less lucky from poor opponent accuracy. Like Los Angeles, Dallas also has two healthy players in the top 40 by three-point percentage over expectation (Max Christie and Klay Thompson), but Reaves and Rui Hachimura have been more impressive from inside the arc than either, and new acquisition Luke Kennard has canned 52.0% of his uncontested looks.
All in all, the Mavericks’ discipline and physicality makes them a fairly difficult matchup for a Lakers team that typically wins through bully ball. Los Angeles should have a slight edge as long as Reaves’ and James’ shots fall, but it wouldn’t at all be a surprise to see a competitive game.
Best bet: Either Team to Win by 5 or Less (+250)