Sean Barnard details his pick and prediction for the Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakers college basketball matchup.

Tipping off a loaded Tuesday of college basketball, the Michigan Wolverines will take on the Purdue Boilermakers. These sides enter as the No. 1 and No. 7-ranked teams in the AP Poll.

This will be a statement game in the hierarchy of college basketball from both sides’ perspectives. Both these teams hold legitimate National Championship aspirations and will be using this as a measuring stick matchup.

Michigan enters as a narrow 2.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 153.5 points.

Michigan vs. Purdue prediction, preview

Michigan has climbed to the top spot in the AP Poll with a 24-1 record on the season. The Wolverines are 14-1 in Big Ten Conference play, and their lone loss came against Wisconsin on January 10th. This kicks off a brutal closing to their regular season, as after this matchup with Purdue, they will play third-ranked Duke and have ranked matchups with Illinois and Michigan State as well. On the season, Michigan has gone 13-12 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 15 of their 25 games played.

Dusty May’s squad is scoring 90.6 points per game, which ranks fifth in the country. The Wolverines rank ninth in offensive rating, seventh in field-goal percentage, 96th in three-point percentage, and ninth in rebounds per game. On the other side of the ball, Michigan has held opponents to 68.3 points per contest, which ranks 50th in the nation. They boast the country’s third-best defensive rating while ranking second in opponent field-goal percentage and 11th in opponent three-point efficiency.

UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg headlines the production with 14.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game. This will especially be the case after some comments from Lendenborg about Purdue have made their way around social media. Morez Johnson Jr. adds 13.6 points and 7.2 rebounds, also leading the Big Ten with a 67.9% field goal percentage. Aday Mara is the lone other player to average double figures with 11.3 points and 7.0 rebounds, along with a Big Ten-leading 2.0 blocks per game. Trey McKenney, Elliot Cadeau, and Nimari Burnett also play key roles in the rotation.

The Purdue Boilermakers enter with a 21-4 record on the season and have gone 11-3 in Big Ten Conference play. Their four losses have come against Iowa State, UCLA, Illinois, and Indiana this year. Purdue enters the matchup on a four-game winning streak. On the season, Purdue has gone 12-13 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 14 of their 25 games played.

Matt Painter’s squad is producing 82.6 points per game, which ranks 54th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. The Boilermakers also rank seventh in offensive rating, 16th in team field goal percentage, 24th in three-point percentage, and generate the third-most assists in the country. Defensively, opponents are scoring 68.6 points per game against Purdue, which ranks 56th in the country. They also rank 90th in defensive rating, 105th in opponent field goal percentage, and 112th in opponent three-point percentage.

Braden Smith headlines the production for the Boilermakers, posting averages of 14.7 points, 8.9 assists and 4.0 rebounds, shooting 41.5% on three-point attempts. Fletcher Loyer pours in 13.5 points and 2.2 rebounds of his own, while connecting on 38.8% of his perimeter looks. Trey Kaufman-Renn leads the team with 9.0 rebounds per game along with his 12.4 points. Oscar Cluff is the lone other player to average in double figures, adding 10.5 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. C.J. Cox, Daniel Jacobsen, and Omer Mayer also play key roles in the rotation.

Michigan vs. Purdue pick, best bet

Mackey Arena is largely regarded as a tough place to play, and Purdue will have this home court advantage in their favor. Michigan has lost 15 of the 22 matchups at Mackey Arena in its history. However, this has not been a factor in the trends against the spread. Purdue is 4-9 against the spread at home this season. They also are 6-8 in conference games and are 12-13 against the spread overall.

This is sure to be a wildly entertaining matchup between two of the top teams in college basketball, eager for battle on the hardwood. But Michigan has looked a class above the rest of the college basketball field, and I expect this to be put on display. Last year’s Michigan squad was embarrassed by this Purdue team on the road, losing 91-64 on the road. But Dusty May points to this as a turning point, beating the Boilermakers two more times before the season ended.

They are now back with reinforcements and have plenty of experience on their side. While this Purdue roster has plenty of experience playing together, but Michigan added some key transfers with experience playing high-level basketball like Lendeborg from UAB and Cadeau from North Carolina. Expect Lendeborg to back up his words and be ready to be physical on the interior.

Michigan ranks ninth in the country in rebounds per game and 45th in opponent rebounds allowed. In contrast, Purdue is 105th in rebounds per game with Kaufman-Renn and Cluff as their biggest threats. Expect the Wolverines to lean on this advantage here and for them to generate some additional possessions.

Wisconsin is the only team that has knocked out Michigan this year, in a rare blip in their high standard of play. Purdue has certainly earned a place in the conversation as one of the best teams in college basketball as well. Still, expect Michigan to assert itself and win this battle by more than the 2.5-point spread. Expect Lendeborg to be a factor on the interior and for this experienced Michigan team to be ready to travel to enemy territory. The Wolverines continue to look impressive every time they take the court, and Purdue has not quite done enough to convince me that they can knock them off the pedestal.

Best Bet: Michigan -2.5 (-110)