Bill Yin shares a breakdown of the top NBA Most Improved Player favorites with a pick for the 2026 season.
The NBA All-Star break has passed, and even though we got a glimpse at the future of the NBA through the Rising Stars game, there’s plenty of talent that’s already been around and has recently taken a leap.
Today’s we’ll look at the NBA Most Improved Player odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Today we’ll go through the top five cases.
It’s tough to deny that Avdija’s been cooking this season. His efforts have earned him his first career nod at an All-Star appearance. He’s currently averaging 25.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 6.6 APG as an all-around workhorse for the Trail Blazers. Avdija showed some promise when he first came to Portland in 2024 via the Wizards trading him for Malcolm Brogdon and picks, averaging 16.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and 3.9 APG in his first season. He has dramatically improved upon those numbers this season and has helped the Blazers to a 27-29 record in the West.
Avdija’s usage sits at 28.8% this season and it’s clear the Blazers want the ball in his hands. His free-throw attempts have also doubled since last season, with his additional trips to the line helping stabilize his poor shooting nights. He’s not shy about barreling into contact and finding assists off these drives.
He’s averaging career highs in PPG, APG, BPG, FT%, FTA, 3PA, and MPG.
Jalen Johnson (+240)
Johnson has taken over Atlanta by storm. He’s also earned his first All-Star nod this season with a robust 23.3 PPG, 10.6 RPG, and 8.2 APG. He’s currently fourth in the NBA in APG and his evolution as a playmaking forward is something the Hawks have sorely needed. In fact, Atlanta deemed his newfound playmaking abilities to supersede their need for Trae Young, resulting in their blockbuster trade earlier this season shipping off Young to Washington.
Johnson’s managed to maintain his efficiency from the field (50.2 FG% on the season) while handling increased these offensive responsibilities. While his attention has undoubtedly slipped on the defensive end, befitting most players who see offensive growth of this level, he’s still showing tremendous growth at just 24 years old.
Jalen’s also likely aware of the parts of his game that needed to improve to suit the modern game. He’s clearly been working on his three ball, upping his attempts to 4.7 3PA this season and increasing his efficiency to 35.3% over last season’s 31.2%. His ability to better space the floor will open up the lane. Furthermore, he’s also getting to the line more frequently, with a career-high 5.6 trips on 77.8 FT%.
Keyonte George (+800)
As a career 39.1 FG% shooter before this season, George has turned heads. He’s currently shooting 45.8 FG% on 16.3 FGA. He’s addressed his efficiency issues remarkably well, and watching him increase his shooting efficiency alongside volume has to be reassuring to the Jazz front office. George has enjoyed increased efficiency nearly everywhere: 37.5 3P% over last season’s 34.3%, 51.5 2P% over last season’s 34.3%, and 61.2 TS% over last season’s 53.9%.
His play may have even ended Utah’s tank, with Danny Ainge making a move for Jaren Jackson Jr. over the trade deadline. The Jazz will boast a long front court next season with Lauri Markkanen, JJJ, and Walker Kessler playing the 3, 4, and 5 respectively. They’ll have a ton of rim protection, scoring, and floor spacing alongside massive defenders to help cover for their back court’s small size.
George has increased his assists to 6.5 per game and is also taking more trips to the line. He’s shooting 7.1 FTAs per game while sinking 89.4% of them. George is just 22 years old, and at this trajectory, he could be gunning for an All-Star nod soon.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (+1000)
NAW’s improvement this season is obvious, but we have to wonder whether he’s just always been this good. For the first time, NAW is averaging more than 26 MPG for a full season. He’s handling increased responsibilities on both sides of the ball. He went from 9.4 PPG and 2.7 APG last season in Minnesota to 20.1 PPG and 3.7 APG this season on the Hawks. NAW has doubled his attempts from three, now hoisting 8.1 per game and connecting on 37.3% of them, which is respectable.
Perhaps this is why NAW’s odds here are +1000. Bettors might not put much stock into his MIP case due to his increased minutes explaining his newfound production. And they’d be correct. If we look at his per-36 numbers, it’s clear that he’s not suddenly discovering insane efficiency or adding to his bag at age 27; he’s simply taking more shots. His only per-36 stats that are career highs are PPG and FGA. He’s attempting 17 FGA per 36, and even when he was taking this many shots in his formative years in New Orleans, his efficiency was poor. He’s still not great in that department; NAW is connecting on only 43.3% of his shots from the field, and his case for MIP is largely just a factor of increased shot attempts, and not an actual improvement in any area. While he’s still valuable to Atlanta on the defensive end, it’s reasonable to conclude that he doesn’t have much of an argument for MIP as others on this list do.
Jalen Duren (+2000)
Duren’s jump this season feels slightly more candid than NAW’s. He’s handling a larger offensive role and his usage has climbed to 22.3% this season. He’s taken a leap in scoring while maintaining his usual elite rebounding numbers. Duren’s averaging 17.7 PPG and has earned his first All-Star nod. He still has some work to do in terms of rim protection, with just 0.9 BPG, but he’s been a terror on the inside and has been a fearsome duo with Cade Cunningham.
He’s securing a career-high 3.7 ORPG while shooting 63.1% from the field. He’s also cleaned up his free throws since last season, putting away 73.7% of his shots from the line. Duren is only 22 years old and could still get better in the future, but like NAW, his leap isn’t as tangible as the others on this list.
The Pick: Deni Avdija (-120)
It’s close between Avdija and Johnson, but voters may lean one way or the other depending on team record and individual improvement. While both of these players improved since last season, Johnson’s leap was easier to foresee. Johnson was already making an MIP case last season before he suffered a torn labrum and was ruled out of the season, and what we’re seeing out of the Hawks’ star is simply a continuation of last season’s trajectory. You could make the same argument for Avdija, but Deni’s got similarly big counting stats but also the surprise factor. I also don’t mind Keyonte George’s +800 odds, but due to how bad the Jazz have been, that feels unlikely.