Feb. 17, 2026, 12:30 p.m. CT
As the NBA enjoys the 2026 All-Star break, the week off gives teams a chance to rest before the stretch run of the 2025-26 regular season and beyond. The Oklahoma City Thunder sit atop the NBA standings with a 42-14 record. Albeit a couple of teams are right there with them.
Despite what the record says, the Thunder have had a couple of mediocre months. After a historic 24-1 start, they’ve gone a meh 18-13. That lengthy stretch has caused some folks to cool down on their expectations that OKC could go back-to-back.
The Thunder hope the ceremonious second half of the season can be blessed with better injury luck. Of all their inconsistencies, you can pinpoint it back to that.
To get ready for the second half of the season, let’s reflect on what the Thunder have done through 56 games:
The good: SGA’s MVP odds, Holmgren’s first All-Star bid plus more
There have been a few moments where folks have hovered their hand over the panic button. But nothing has been pressed yet. If a Thunder fan ever wants to feel better, just look around the rest of the league. Despite some shaky stretches, OKC still sits pretty with the best net rating and point differential — two metrics most folks lean into to see who the true contenders are.
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Sure, you can say the Thunder don’t look as invincible as they did through the first two months, but there’s no denying that all of the indicators say they’re still the best team in the league — even if the margin has thinned. The Thunder have a historic plus-11.7 point differential with a league-best 11.5 net rating.
Once again, the Thunder have leaned on defense. They’ve had the best in the league the last couple of seasons. And are building up quite the resume for an all-time team. They have a league-best 106.3 defensive rating. Although the Pistons are right behind them at 108.3. OKC relied on that side of the ball to bring home an NBA championship last season. Expect the same in these upcoming playoffs.
Let’s segue to Gilgeous-Alexander. Odds are, he’ll win his second consecutive MVP award. The real question is whether he’ll be unanimous. Sure, injuries have helped assure that. Nikola Jokic has missed a month with a knee injury and hasn’t looked the same since his return. While he has two games left to remain eligible, he’s mustered up zero momentum in recent weeks.
But Gilgeous-Alexander has rightfully played like an MVP. He’s averaged 31.8 points on 55.4% shooting, 6.4 assists and 4.4 rebounds. The on-off splits suggest OKC goes from a decent team to an all-time team when he’s on the floor. He’s on the verge of breaking Wilt Chamberlain’s 20-point streak.
Gilgeous-Alexander continues to cement himself as an all-time NBA great. His competition isn’t the current field of players. It’s basketball pantheons like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. What he’s done the last four seasons as a walking 30-point machine has skyrocketed him among the league’s best players.
You also saw Holmgren earn his first All-Star bid. We’ve talked about it for years, but all he needed was a healthy campaign to cross that off his bucket list. Voila. The 23-year-old has anchored the best defense. OKC’s perimeter defense hasn’t been as sharp, but he’s cleaned up their mistakes as a rim protector.
Holmgren has averaged 17.4 points on 56% shooting, 8.7 rebounds and 1.9 blocks. There’s a reason why he’s viewed as the DPOY favorite — or at the very least, runner-up. Say what you want to say about his scoring abilities, but he’s a winning player who advanced analytics love.
The bad: Health, inconsistent offense plus more
Health. Health. Health. That’s the keyword for OKC’s championship ambitions. If guys are available, they should be the heavy favorite to go back-to-back. If not, they suddenly get demoted to being any other contender. The Thunder have looked human for the last two months. The biggest reason for that is simply health.
At this point, everybody has missed significant time. Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein are the two biggest victims. Williams missed the first month recovering from double-wrist surgery. And once it looked like he was getting into a flow, two hamstring strains have cost him 10-plus more games.
Hartenstein has missed a month’s worth of games with a nagging soleus strain. He’s sustained the injury twice. And even though he’s back, he’s still under a minute restriction. Not good. The Thunder juggled injuries last season, too, but they were ailments you bounce back from quickly, ala broken bones. But muscle strains. Sheesh. Those can be tricky. As we’ve seen.
Doesn’t even include Gilgeous-Alexander’s and Ajay Mitchell’s abdominal strains. Both have missed time with it. We’ve yet to see what they look like once they return. And Alex Caruso has dealt with an adductor strain, too. Just a lot of soft tissue injuries that are probably collateral damage from a lengthy OKC playoff run that shortened its offseason to just two months.
It’s a price any team would gladly pay for a Larry O’Brien trophy. But something you definitely have to bring up when folks wonder why the Thunder look mortal. There’s a reason why we haven’t seen a team go back-to-back in a minute. As we saw last year, you need as much luck as talent to bring home an NBA championship.
The Thunder hope the second half of the season looks much better. Injury reports won’t be as long as CVS receipts. In that case, the offense should look better. That’s been the side of the ball that’s struggled more. Without Gilgeous-Alexander, the offense suddenly dips to ugly levels.
But if the reigning MVP is back, then the Thunder should have enough self-creation scorers like Williams and Mitchell to tape together a sufficient second-unit offense. Trust me, it’s been bad. At its worst, OKC has looked like a team that couldn’t even run an NBA offense. But you gotta keep in mind that injuries have really limited this squad.
Final grade
The Thunder have remained the NBA’s best team. But the last two months show that they’re not going to cruise their way into another championship. That likely wasn’t going to happen anyway. It took them winning two Game 7s to win it last year. But the 70-plus-win season hopes are officially over.
The Thunder badly need some reinforcements. They limped into the All-Star break. We’re at the point where the injuries have now cost them some serious ground in the standings. It’ll be important for them to finish with the first seed, as we saw in last year’s playoffs with how nearly unbeatable they were at home.
If you had to ask which version of OKC is the true version — the 24-1 squad or the 18-13 squad? I think I’d lean towards the former. The Thunder had one of the most dominant seasons ever last year. This season has them carry over with amazing continuity you usually don’t see in the NBA. Even with a frustrating last two months, the main goal remains the main goal — win another NBA championship.
Despite some ups and downs, the Thunder will be the favorite when the playoffs start — barring more catastrophic injury luck. It’s all about guys getting healthy and gaining some momentum in these final six weeks of the regular season. If that happens, you should feel good about OKC’s odds.
All-Star break grade:Â A-minus