With Karter Knox now officially returning to the Arkansas basketball program, the focus shifts to the fate of his frontcourt running mate: Adou Thiero.
The explosive 6’8” junior forward has long been assumed to be the more likely of the two to stay in the NBA Draft because of his age and the sense that he might have already peaked in college.
Last week, the 21-year-old Thiero posted photos on TikTok of him at the NBA Draft lottery with a caption of “36 days,” indicating a countdown to the draft. That was right after CBS’ Matt Norlander said he believes Thiero and Karter Knox will “both wind up back at Arkansas.”
Heading into the last day to withdraw from the 2025 NBA Draft (Wednesday), it’s easy to think that Thiero is a goner when you see how how many mock drafts have him either in the first round or just below those first 30 picks:
No Ceilings: 23 (Pacers)
Bleacher Report: 33 (Hornets)
ESPN: 34 (Hornets)
Sports Illustrated: 37 (Pistons)
CBS: 43 (Jazz)
Yahoo Sports: 43 (Jazz)
NBA Draft Net: 43 (Jazz)
For those NBA draft analysts who bothered to include Knox (i.e. didn’t just assume he was returning to school), a few of them actually slotted him right around* where you see Thiero above.
Thiero would seem to have less NBA upside than Knox, only a freshman, given he’s already been in college for three years. While Knox is considered a potential lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, few if any will slot Thiero there if he does return. He’s already shown out as the best frontcourt player for an elite SEC program, so even with a fully healthy senior year it doesn’t seem like he could crack, say, the Top 20 in 2026.
Trend among Adou Thiero’s Peers in Mock NBA Drafts
Karter Knox is actually one of three prospects in the same range or higher than Adou Thiero who recently declared they are returning to school.
On Tuesday, big man Yaxel Lendeborg (ESPN’s No. 26 prospect) joined Knox on the Retention Train. Next season, the 22-year-old will play for the same Michigan basketball program Arkansas left in the dust last December.
Then we have Florida big man Alex Condon, who on Tuesday announced he will return to the national champion Gators for his junior season. Condon will induce plenty of jealous stares from Arkansas basketball fans next season as the recipient of multiple Boogie Fland alley oops.
The news around Knox, Lendeborg and Condon can be interpreted in one of two ways when it comes to Adou Thiero.
They could be opening up more room in that late first-round area for Thiero to get drafted a spot or two higher. When trying to secure the guaranteed contract that the top 30 picks represent, every spot counts.
However, the trio’s return can also be seen as good news for Arkansas.
In most years past, these kinds of fringe first round picks would be no-brainer goners. Sticking around indicates that the cold, hard cash on the NIL front is enough to make it worth it for such prospects to stay an extra year in college and defer the potential bonanza that a second NBA contract represents by a year. In years past, eventual high second round picks (we see you, Jaylin Willliams) might have felt that going pro was the right move despite the non-guaranteed, lower contracts, but the money now appears to be good enough to dissuade that tactic among many college stars.
Thiero’s NIL contract is unknown but given how good he’s already proven he is – plus the way he could tip Arkansas from its current standing as a Top 10 team to a bonafide preseason Top 5 squad, something north of $2 million seems very reasonable in the current Daddy Warbucks-sponsored climate.
Like Knox, Lendeborg and Condon, Thiero would also be joining a loaded squad with legitimate national title hopes. It’s easy to discount the competitive nature of these modern college players, but that competitiveness is absolutely a big part of the DNA of all four of these guys. Yes, money matters. But so does what got them into basketball in the first place and what fuels the passion that was so plain to see through all of last season.
Thiero was a shell of his former self when he returned from a leg injury to give it a shot in the Sweet 16 round vs Texas Tech. That gut-wrenching loss came after two consecutive frustrating season finishes in his freshman and sophomore years at Kentucky.
The dream of finishing out a season healthy and strong on a Final Four team may not be Thiero’s No. 1 motivator in deciding whether to stay or withdraw from the 2025 NBA Draft. But if he’s not getting the first-round assurances he wants, that possibility may very well tip the balance in favor of the Hogs for the makings of a dream season.
*Karter Knox Rated Dangerously High among NBA Draft Gurus
On No Ceilings, a basketball outlet that regularly puts out draft content and prospect scouting reports, listed Knox at No. 33 in its mock draft from May 13. Analyst Tyler Metcalf’s report on Knox described him as a “dark horse one-and-done prospect” with “NBA tools, a pro frame and ample potential.”
Metcalf said Knox is a tricky prospect to evaluate because of his low usage rate and lack of shot-creating ability, but essentially said the latter critique is irrelevant because of how high the bar is to be an isolation scorer in the NBA. There’s only a few dozen players in the entire league who are good enough to do that, which makes shot making the most important offensive quality for the other 95% of NBA players.
Spot-up shooting is one of Knox’s best traits, and something he got better at as the season progressed. He also made major strides as a defender, and combining that with his athleticism and solid positional size makes him an ideal two-way wing.
“Where Knox’s physical tools really pop, though, is on defense,” Metcalf said. “His individual defensive playmaking numbers aren’t outlandish, but his film is littered with competence and winning plays. His combination of strength, explosiveness and length makes him a highly impactful team defender. He can be disruptive in passing lanes and as a weak side rim protector, but he consistently makes rotations that don’t always show up in the box score.”
There were some downsides to his player profile, of course.
Knox didn’t really burst onto the scene until later in the season, leaving a small sample size for scouts to watch. His performance at the NBA Combine, which ended on May 18, certainly helped his case. But there’s a reason many want to see him come back and play in a bigger role for Arkansas next season. Metcalf said it’s “nearly unheard of” for a freshman with a low usage rate such as Knox to go in the first round.
“Freshman who have minimal roles are always some of the trickiest evaluations because we can easily convince ourselves of anything given the limited information,” he continued. “He still has a long way to go, but Knox has an incredibly intriguing foundation that could make him a fascinating developmental swing – or one of the most exciting returners for next year’s draft.”
The conclusion of Metcalf’s report started to sound similar to the consensus on Knox, but some international analysts were even more bullish on the Tampa native.
Karter Knox a First Round Lock According to Turkish Scout
NBA draft analyst Ersin Demir, who hails from Türkiye, said Knox has a prototypical skillset for the next level despite the limited role he played at Arkansas last season. Demir said Knox’s shooting ability is one of his best traits, though shot creation is something he needs to improve.
“Knox is also a demanding and active communicator, screaming for the ball while moving to the corner,” Demir said. “Knox understands his role as a spot-up shooter and thrives on making it easy for teammates to find and feed him with open looks.”
Demir added that his downhill scoring ability – “the defense must foul to stop him” – and solid footwork makes it “feasible” for Knox to become an effective creator at the next level. He also said that while Knox’s playmaking was limited to being more of a “ball-mover,” he still executed his reads when he had to. His defensive ability also jumped out to Demir as one of his major strengths.
Demir was more bullish than any American outlet in declaring Knox a “lock” for the first round, basing his projection on film as well as intel he heard from a trio of NBA scouts. He said the freshman has “clear top-20 value” if he is “developed correctly.”
The NBADraft.net team lists him as at No. 33 on the big board thanks to his two-way skillset and big, athletic frame. At 6-foot-6, 220 pounds and only 19 years of age, the already bullish Knox will continue to improve his physicality as he matures and lead Arkansas higher into the 2026 NCAA Tournament national title odds according to Wincomparator.
Analyst Evan Tomes described him as a “very good scorer” and a “natural athlete and aggressive driver,” though he said he needs to improve as a ball-handler and isn’t very quick laterally. Knox was given either a seven or eight out of 10 in all 12 categories of his game, and was projected as one of the most well-rounded prospects in the 2025 class.
Karter Knox’s Return Priceless for Arkansas Basketball
As to why Knox was being omitted entirely from most major mock drafts, it wasn’t because he’s outside the top 60 prospects in the class.
“My assumption with other outlets is that they’re assuming that he’s going to return to Arkansas,” Metcalf of No Ceilings wrote in an emailed statement before Knox announced his return. “While we do sometimes factor that stuff in, we try to treat the draft pool as it is until guys make a definitive decision.”
Jonathan Wasserman, the lead draft analyst for Bleacher Report, had Knox going undrafted in his latest mock but ranked him as a borderline lottery prospect on his personal big board – checking in at No. 17. That aligns with Demir’s declaration of Knox as a top-20 prospect in the class, as well as Pig Trail Nation’s Kevin McPherson saying on Monday night that “as many as four [NBA] teams that had real interest in pursuing Carter Knox to some level to stay in the draft.” Jonathan Givony, ESPN’s top draft reporter, was much lower on Knox – No. 56 on the big board and undrafted on the mock. It’s clear the NBA draft community was split on Knox.
A sophomore season as the leader of a top 25 team could turn Knox from a dark horse first rounder into a surefire lottery pick in 2026. Almost certainly, a seven-figure NIL deal sweetened the pot on that decision as well. Here’s a look at what Knox would have stood to make if he were drafted in various positions through the back half of the first round this offseason:
PickTotal ContractGuaranteed Money15$22.5 million$9 million20$17.7 million$7.4 million25$15.3 million$6 million30$14 million$5.5 million
Contracts for second round picks contain little to no guaranteed money, and salary offers are almost entirely up to the franchise. The last few picks in the first round make a starting salary of $2.7 million. Assuming Knox gets a similar NIL package to Boogie Fland, he will make around that much coming back to college and then be able to bank more guaranteed money in the next draft.
Of course, these situations don’t always turn out as planned. Daniel Gafford, for example, would have likely been a first round pick if he left after his freshman year. The talented big man returned for another year to try and push himself into the lottery, but instead ended up as a second round selection. The families of these blue-chip prospects are often aware of these kinds of cases.
Knox and his folks crunched the numbers and came to the conclusion that another year in college was the best move for him. It’s clear the NBA Draft community was split on Knox, but the more optimistic scouting reports underscore just how critical it was to get Knox back.
In addition to a pair of five-star freshmen and a solid pack of returners, Coach Cal will have at least one top-25 NBA prospect leading the pack for the Razorbacks in the 2025-26 campaign. Adou Thiero’s return could very well make that a duo.
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Special thanks to Ersin Demir and Tyler Metcalf for their reports. You can subscribe to their Substack newsletters using these links: Demir and Metcalf.
Just so we’re staying on the “Demir” cognate theme here, Evin Demirel contributed to the above.
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Arkansas guard Karter Knox showed off his explosiveness and scoring instincts to NBA execs at the LIFT Pro Day in Chicago. Closed his freshman year with nice momentum coming out of NCAA Tournament play. pic.twitter.com/h8xFoljmly
— Jacob Myers (@League_Him) May 17, 2025
Inside Arkansas discusses the potential for Karter Knox and Billy Richmond to make a sophomore jump:
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