2026 NBA Draft, point guard conversations, potential risers

During this All-Star break — and just a busy time for me right now — I wanted to launch a mailbag to answer any questions about the NBA Draft and Memphis Grizzlies.

These topics will intersect to a significant degree. I’m splitting them up as best as I can, especially since I aim to do a draft post and Grizzlies post each week.

While we’re at this point, I want to say that this draft class has raised my enthusiasm for scouting to a significant degree. It’s been fun to analyze this class and even project ahead to players who may be better fits for the draft class over the rest of the decade — NIL has made this a fascinating conversation.

So first off — draft questions. Thank you to all who used Twitter (X), Bluesky, and Substack to ask questions.

I’m incredibly high on Kingston Flemings and do see the hype with him at 5. He has a stack of traits that are appealing — speed, gear-shifting, athleticism, and physicality. He’s a blur that pressures the rim in the half-court and in transition. He takes care of the ball at a high level. The shot is still more of a “wait and see,” but there’s a building sample of three-level scoring — primarily with a mid-range game.

The biggest difference between Flemings and guys like Darius Acuff and Bennett Stirtz is the trust I have in him defensively. He’s a physical guard that can also create turnovers. I don’t worry about hiding him.

Nonetheless, Acuff and Stirtz have good cases. Acuff is actually closer to Flemings than Stirtz in terms of tiers and boards, because of his production in SEC play. He’s excelled at taking care of the ball, shooting from three, and getting to the paint without a screen. Stirtz is insanely productive and knows how to manage a game to an extreme level, but I have concerns about how his game looks when he’s sped up. He plays at a slow pace.

Kingston Flemings

Keaton Wagler

Mikel Brown Jr.

Darius Acuff

Labaron Philon

The one I can live with the most is Fleming’s, because the shooting development has been encouraging over the past 18 months. The mid-range pull-up has been a real counter to when teams play the drive. There’s a real leap going on.

I’ll also add Brown here as someone I’m keeping an eye on with the consistency/potential angle. I fear he may be more Jordan Poole or Anfernee Simons than a franchise point guard, but if he stacks games like the ones the past week, he’s a dynamic lead guard option with his size, pull-up shooting, and playmaking.

The paradigm for small guards has shifted into a real degree, and for most readers of the Substack, it’s seen with Ja Morant. Maybe this class shifts it a little bit — mainly with guys like Flemings, Acuff, and Christian Anderson.

It’s less about the talent and more about resource allocation. Teams are apprehensive about giving a max contract to small guards if there are concerns with defense or shooting — at least when it comes to the third contract, as the second one is always considered “the fun max.” It creates a ceiling and forces teams to cater the team around those weaknesses. With apron rules and rising salary numbers, teams have to be more cautious in general about who’s getting a max contract — we’ll see this with other positions too. Nonetheless, these guys have the talent. The small guard archetype isn’t dead, and I’m intrigued with how they can potentially buck the stigma.

I’m going to go with two non-lottery players I’ve grown to like more and more this draft cycle. Flory Bidunga’s pick-and-roll prowess should translate seamlessly at the next level. He’s an explosive leaper that has good awareness off the roll. I’m enamored with his potential as a change-of-pace-5. Secondly, Aday Mara’s passing will pop in some capacity. Frontcourt playmaking is critical in today’s NBA. Whether it’s as a backup or a starter, Mara has the passing creativity and vision to really add value in this capacity. Small spoiler to something I’ve been working on.

I’ll answer the first one Friday.

Let’s go off last ESPN’s latest top 100, even though that’s technically a big board…

Braden Smith is such an obvious bet to become a quality role player. He’s been the best floor general in the country for his collegiate career. He will have a ceiling with his height. However, he’s too smart and skilled to fail. He’s an easy bet to have a decade-long career.

Zuby Ejiofor at St. John’s is one of my favorite upperclassmen. He’s undersized — and the finishing has been a concern here — but he’s an absolute tank, and it triggers several areas. He’s a major asset in the possessions game with offensive rebounding, screening, and stonewalling drives and post-ups defensively. He should be a backup big at the very least.

Tamin Lipsey at Iowa State is a menacing point-of-attack defender that can also take care of the ball at a high level. He can’t shoot, but that hasn’t stopped other guards in recent memory. This archetype has succeeded in this NBA — Jamal Shead with Toronto is a good example.

Tarris Reed Jr. at UConn has a phenomenal intersection of screening, rebounding, shot-blocking, and passing. He’s another player that should flourish as a rock-solid backup big man.

I’m going to use No Ceilings Mock Draft for this exercise:

Aday Mara, as mentioned above, has this awesome intersection of feel, rim protection, rebounding, and creativity. When teams get a closer look at his size with these skills, he could creep into the top 20.

Tyler Tanner is a buzzy name for this cycle, but I bet he returns with a nice NIL payday. Another probable return I’ll add to this line: Alabama’s Amari Allen — although he was 20 in No Ceilings, it’s not exactly consensus yet. Dribble-pass-shoot-defend 6’8” forwards are valuable commodities in today’s NBA. If he surged into the lottery conversation, it wouldn’t surprise me.

Allen Graves at Santa Clara is someone I’m looking to study more over the next few months. He might be the most valuable player in the possessions game — rebounding, turnovers, and defensive events — in this draft. If he gets a combine invite, he can make serious noise.

Arizona’s Ivan Kharchenkov can become a buzzy name if he shows out in tournament play. He’s a 6’7” Swiss-Army knife forward that can defend, generate steals, operate as a connector, and finish inside the arc. The shot is holding him back from being a full-fledged first-round prospect. However, he can shoot up boards if he continues to play a big role for an awesome Arizona team.

I’ll answer the second one Friday.

I’m higher on Acuff than Draft Twitter seems to be at the moment. As a side note, he’s such a dynamic offensive player with his playmaking, shooting, and driving. He has the goods to be an NBA starting point guard — maybe a franchise one. His defense has been at the center of his analysis online. It’s the development I’m eyeing the closest with tournament time.

As a Grizzlies fit, if Memphis falls to 7-10 or trades up from the Magic/Suns pick, I’d totally be cool with Acuff. Isalo should be given credit for the development and production generated from the guard spot. With the emphasis on the pick-and-roll, Acuff should thrive in this system.

I have Baba Miller targeted for a closer watch in my post-college basketball season part of my study for my draft guide. He’s taken meaningful steps as a defender, rebounder, and playmaker. Given his size with these skills, he can hear his name called on draft night.

I’m high on Steinbach with his elite skill of offensive rebounding. He also has this intersection of skill and physicality — screening, passing, defensive angles, and a soft touch. I have concerns with his defensive viability because he’s not entirely a perimeter defender or rim protector. In addition, he’s not an outside shooter. Nonetheless, he’s been incredibly productive dating back to pre-NCAA. He has a valuable elite skill in the possessions game, a key in this NBA. If he slips past the lottery, he’ll outplay his draft position — although he should be more complementary than centerpiece, the best comparison would be an outcome of Steven Adams vs. an Alperen Sengun one.

Thank you to all who asked questions. I’ll answer Grizzlies-specific questions for Friday’s mailbag.

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