Paolo Banchero said he hoped to use his All-Star Break to put his feet in the sand reset himself.
If that lead sounds familiar, it is because I wrote it a few days ago when I argued that this season’s hope for the Playoffs were tied to Banchero finding himself again in an up-and-down season (and that is being generous).
Banchero, and his content machine, shared video of him running and working out on the beach in the Bahamas during his break on one of his Instagram accounts. It was not an idle weekend for a player who has fallen well short of expectations.
The Magic were hoping they would be fully healthy so they could see what this roster looks like at full force. They were hoping to see Paolo Banchero refreshed and looking more like the terror offensively who dominated the post-All-Star Break run last year. They were hoping to see Jalen Suggs at full bore after his hip and MCL injuries.
They were hoping to see Franz Wagner shake off six weeks of frustration with a high ankle sprain to take the floor and give this team its full complement of starring players.
That is not going to happen any time soon.
The Magic will be leaning on Banchero to carry the team the rest of the season, even if Wagner makes his way back in nearly a month after being ruled out indefinitely with soreness in his left ankle. All eyes are on Banchero to be the star he has struggled to be.
If that sounds familiar, it is because we wrote that exact point in December when Wagner first got hurt.
With the Magic’s season on the line now in these final 29 games and a 1.5-game climb to get out of the Play-In, the Magic are going to find out just how ready Banchero is to take the mantle of superstar player.
Superstar development arrested
Paolo Banchero faced his share of criticism even entering this year as the young player tried to learn the mantle of leadership and stardom for the team. His on/off numbers have not been strong measures for him. But the Orlando Magic understood how much attention he took.
Some people batted an eye when the Magic gave him the full Rose Rule max contract. But nobody doubted that Banchero was not worth at least a max contract. There was no doubt that Banchero could be one of the most difficult players to guard as he continued to grow.
Almost immediately this season, it was clear Banchero was a bit off. He looked noticeably slower and less athletic as he struggled early in the season to find his jumper.
His numbers have mostly recovered. But they are still a bit disappointing.
For the season, he is averaging 21.3 points per game. He has added a career-best 8.4 rebounds per game and a solid 4.8 assists per game. He is shooting 45.4 percent from the floor, about the same as his last two seasons before this one, and has a career-best 55.9 percent true shooting percentage.
Banchero has taken more shots in the paint and at the rim than at any time in his career, with 27.2 percent of his field goal attempts coming within three feet.
He has taken fewer of the ineffiicent mid-range shots that stars think they should take. In that way Banchero has improved.
Still, it has felt like everything has been off with him. He has only five 30-point games this season after hitting 30 points 18 times last season.
That 55.9 percent true shooting percentage? It is a career-high. But it is also the 10th-worst true shooting percentage among players with a usage rate of at least 25 percent and 25 minutes per game (notably better than Jalen Williams, but that is an argument for another day).
The Magic as a whole have a -2.5 net rating with Banchero on the floor (a 113.0 offensive rating and a 115.5 defensive rating, 1.5 points per 100 possessions worse than the team’s overall average).
Paolo Banchero has not stepped up his game since Franz Wagner’s injury either.
Since Dec. 7, Banchero is averaging a team-high 21.8 points per game, 8.7 rebounds per game and 5.3 assists per game. Those are not starring numbers, but they are fine. But the Magic still struggle with him on the floor — a -4.4 net rating with a 112.6 offensive rating (better than the team’s average, but still bad) and a 117.0 defensive rating.
That is not the stat profile for a superstar player. That is what the Magic need.
A lot to prove
The frustrating thing with Paolo Banchero then has been that this is the same story as last year.
Banchero was slow to recover from a torn oblique, looking noticeably slower and struggling to find his jumper for a month after he returned in January. It took Banchero a long time to find his footing.
It has felt the same way as he returned from his groin. And he was not starting from the same strong place he started the beginning of last season.
Despite all the frustrations, Banchero turned in a stellar end to the season. It was the kind of finish that fulfilled everything many critics wanted to see from him.
After last year’s All-Star break, Banchero averaged 29.0 points per game, 7.8 rebounds per game and 4.5 assists per game. He shot 47.3 percent from the floor and had a 58.1 percent true shooting percentage. Add that in with a stellar 29.4 points per game with the Boston Celtics’ vaunted defense loaded up to stop him.
Those final 30-plus games were al lthe confirmation the Magic needed to annoint Banchero their star and trust in him to be the leader for this team.
That has been the step he has struggled to make this year. Instead, it has felt like more of the same weaknesses and struggles that have feld a lot of his critics.
If there is a narrative that the Magic play better with Banchero off the floor, the stats seem to back it up. And that is the narrative Banchero must change.
For worse for this team — because the Magic cannot compete for anything serious without both Banchero and Wagner — that is the storyline for the rest of the season. Banchero has to prove he can lead this team and carry them up the standings and into the playoffs.
All eyes are on him, whether he wants it or not.