Bill Yin breaks down his prediction and pick for Thursday’s game between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers.

The 35-20 Nuggets will host the 26-28 Clippers tonight in the first slate after All-Star weekend.

The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 226.5 points.

Nuggets vs. Clippers prediction, preview

The Nuggets have been holding onto their third seed in the West with a vice grip, surviving Nikola Jokic’s absence through committee, with Jamal Murray’s All-Star level production and Peyton Watson’s leap. They’ve trudged on through the season as a consistently elite offense, currently rated first in the NBA with 121 OFFRTG. Unfortunately, their defense has been poor, with a mere 116.9 DEFRTG due to missing multiple starters for extended stretches. They’ve been without Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, Christian Braun, and now Peyton Watson for long periods. Most of these guys are plus defenders, as well. With Jokic now back in the mix, this Nuggets team will try to finish the season strong as they wrestle for a top seed in the West. They’re only 3.5 games behind the second seed, and six games behind the first.

The Clippers changed their roster construction in a big way over the trade deadline, shipping off James Harden and Ivica Zubac. They’ve added Bennedict Mathurin, Darius Garland, and Isaiah Jackson. Since then, their offense has cratered to bottom-ten levels, but their defense has been clamping at a top three rating. Whether this holds up is uncertain, but for now we can consider the Clippers a defensively minded team at least until Garland returns. It’s also prudent to talk about Kawhi Leonard, who’s been having an incredible season for the Clippers with a career-high 27.9 PPG while maintaining his usual excellent percentages. He’s also been a beast on the defensive end, leading the league with 2.1 SPG among all qualified players.

Nuggets vs. Clippers pick, best bet

Best Bet: Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-192)

These two teams have already played each other twice this season, with the Nuggets winning by 14 and 13 points in both games. In the November game, Jokic detonated for an absurd double double with 55 points and 12 rebounds. I’m expecting the Nuggets to get another comfortable win tonight, even with their roster weakened.