SAN FRANCISCO – Unlike one year ago when the Warriors won three of their first four games with Jimmy Butler going into the NBA All-Star break and struck fear back into the league, the sprint to the finish line this season is without expectations. 

Those went out the window when Butler grabbed his right knee and screamed from the Chase Center floor in the third quarter of the Warriors’ win against his previous team, the Miami Heat, on Jan. 19.

The Warriors’ title chances were crushed in an instant by Butler’s torn ACL. Nobody expects them to compete for a championship, and only a fraction of the fanbase huffing hopium still had that belief with a healthy Butler. Say goodbye to pressure and preseason predictions. This is a franchise that goes into every season with its eyes on the Larry O’Brien trophy and that vision has vanished. 

Among the Warriors’ own preseason goals was getting out of the purgatory of the play-in tournament. Since winning the 2022 championship, the Warriors have been subjected to the play-in tournament in two of the last three seasons. They didn’t survive the first time but did the second prior to a strained Steph Curry hamstring ending last season early. 

Even if the outlook of this team is so much different one month to the date of Butler’s injury, is jumping into the top six of the Western Conference standings still a main goal of the Warriors? 

“It’s still a goal, for sure. It’s not an expectation by any means,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr answered Wednesday after practice. “When you just look at the standings and look at who’s ahead of us, teams are playing really well. But that would still be the goal, for sure. There’s basically a third of the season left, so, you know, let’s see if we can make that happen.”

Golden State is the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference coming out of the break with a 29-26 record. The Warriors have won too much to wave the white flag, and that isn’t in their nature. 

A date with the playoffs remains on the Warriors’ calendar. As they aim to make reservations, their identity on the court is what Kerr is most focused on: Taking care of the ball, being a better team in transition, having a defense-first mentality and creating easier shots for themselves. 

“It’s all about the playoffs this year. That’s what we’re looking to build towards,” Kerr said. “So the process is the most important thing – recognizing how we have to win games, what we have to accomplish within that process.” 

There still is a path to the playoffs and avoiding the play-in tournament. The No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves and No. 5 seed Los Angeles Lakers are both 4.5 games ahead of the Warriors in the standings, with the Timberwolves five games up in the win column and the Lakers four games up. The first avenue to look at is the strength of schedule for the remainder of the regular season. 

The Warriors have the 16th-hardest strength of schedule remaining in the NBA, per Tankathon. The only team ahead of them in the Western Conference standings that has an easier strength of schedule is the No. 4 seed Houston Rockets. The No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder have the hardest remaining strength of schedule, and the No. 3 seed Denver Nuggets have the second-hardest as the two teams still have three games left against each other. The No. 2 seed San Antonio Spurs have the 10th-hardest remaining strength of schedule. 

Where it gets interesting is looking at the Timberwolves, Lakers and No. 7 seed Phoenix Suns. The Timberwolves have the third-hardest remaining strength of schedule. The Lakers come in at No. 8 (fourth-hardest in the West) and the Suns are No. 9 (fifth-hardest in the West). 

From a tiebreaker standpoint, the Warriors are 1-1 against the Lakers and still have two games left against them. They have lost two of three to the Timberwolves but still have one game against them on March 13 at home. However, the Warriors’ comeback win against the Suns in Phoenix on Feb. 5 was paramount as the final game of their season series, in which Golden State took three of four games.

“You have to acknowledge it,” Al Horford said of the standings. “Ideally, for us, it would be to be a top six seed. At the same time, we want to play good basketball and like I said earlier, be healthy. I think if we’re healthy and we’re playing good basketball, that’s what we need. But ideally, yes, it would be a top six seed.” 

The last, and possibly biggest factor in the Warriors’ favor, is the NBA’s tanking problem. The Warriors aren’t swimming in that pool but have nine games against teams who are. That doesn’t include two games against the LA Clippers, who traded James Harden and Ivica Zubac. It also doesn’t include one game against the Chicago Bulls, who traded multiple impact players, or the Warriors’ one game with the 26-win Hawks. 

Any road to a top-six seed would be a lot clearer with a healthy Curry. While Kristaps Porzingis is expected to make his Warriors debut Thursday night, Curry will miss his sixth straight game because of what’s in layman’s terms called “runner’s knee.” An injury to Curry changes the course of the Warriors’ product and puts the rest of the season into perspective. 

Sitting in eighth place has been the Warriors’ residence for two months. The last time they weren’t the No. 8 seed was two months ago, when they were the No. 9 seed on Dec. 19. The Warriors haven’t seen the top six since Nov. 4, when they had a 5-3 record. 

Scenarios are there for the Warriors to make the jump into the top six. It’s still a goal, but not an expectation, knowing health has to be the top priority the rest of the way.

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