The Pelicans are -4.5 favorites vs. the Bucks
Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
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The Milwaukee Bucks visit Smoothie King Center to take on the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm in New Orleans, LA.
The Pelicans are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).
The Bucks vs Pelicans Over/Under is 222.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 24-29 against the spread, while the Pelicans are 30-26 against the spread.
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Bucks vs. Pelicans Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
SpreadOver / UnderMoneylineMilwaukee Bucks+4.5 -115O 222.5 -115+150New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 -105U 222.5 -105-185
Pelicans vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Pelicans will win Friday‘s game with 58.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Bucks and Pelicans.
Pelicans vs Bucks Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 57.5% confidence.
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Bucks Best Bets for Tonight:
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+11.15 Units / 186% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 away games (+10.70 Units / 56% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+8.50 Units / 140% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Pelicans Best Bets for Tonight:
The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+11.20 Units / 58% ROI)
The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.10 Units / 41% ROI)
The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.15 Units / 18% ROI)
The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
Milwaukee Bucks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 24-29 (-7.9 Units / -13.56% ROI).
23-30 against the Moneyline (-7.7 Units / -9.36% ROI)
21-32 against the Over for game total points (-14.2 Units / -24.36% ROI)
32-21 against the Under for game total points (+8.9 Units / 15.27% ROI)
New Orleans Pelicans Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Pelicans have gone 30-26 (+1.4 Units / 2.27% ROI).
15-41 against the Moneyline (-16.15 Units / -26.07% ROI)
28-28 against the Over for game total points (-2.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)
28-28 against the Under for game total points (-2.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Pelicans:
The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 24 games (-15.50 Units / -55% ROI)
The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 45 games (-15.25 Units / -29% ROI)
The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 20 of their last 50 games (-14.95 Units / -26% ROI)
The New Orleans Pelicans have only covered the 4Q Spread in 4 of their last 20 games at home (-14.70 Units / -63% ROI)
The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 40 games at home (-11.45 Units / -25% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Bucks:
The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 1Q Spread in 15 of their last 45 games (-19.65 Units / -38% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 40 games (-16.70 Units / -38% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 1H Spread in 19 of their last 50 games (-15.65 Units / -27% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 50 games (-14.30 Units / -25% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 40 away games (-14.15 Units / -30% ROI)
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Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Pelicans
The Bucks are winless (0-9) when their eFG is 50% or worse this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .218
The Bucks are winless (0-13) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .214
The Bucks are 3-12 (.200) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .247
The Bucks are 8-15 (.348) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .477
New Orleans Pelicans: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks
The Pelicans are winless (0-9) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .426
The Pelicans were 2-10 (.167) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .545
The Pelicans are 5-23 (.179) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .454
The Pelicans are 1-17 (.056) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2024-25 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444
Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks have a TS% of 56% in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49%
The Bucks are shooting 45% from three (116/260) in close and late situations this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%
The Bucks are shooting 41% from three (375/914) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
The Bucks are shooting 39% from three (780/1,990) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
New Orleans Pelicans Offensive Stats & Trends
The Pelicans have averaged 61.0 points in the paint per game (1,770 points/29 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7
The Pelicans averaged 3.1 fast break points per game (182 points/58 games) in close and late situations last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.3
The Pelicans have averaged 29.3 points in the paint per game (1,640 points/56 games) in the first half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.1
The Pelicans have averaged 57.1 points in the paint per game (3,200 points/56 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.5
Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks averaged 37.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,035 rebounds/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Bucks averaged 7.3 steals per game (601 steals/82 games) last season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2
The Bucks have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (218 blocks/53 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Bucks have averaged 7.1 steals per game (1,551 steals/217 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0
New Orleans Pelicans Defensive Stats & Trends
The Pelicans averaged 4.6 blocks per game (379 blocks/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Pelicans have 494 steals this season — 9th most among NBA teams
The Pelicans blocked 429 shots last season — 10th most among NBA teams
The Pelicans have averaged 33.9 defensive rebounds per game (1,898 rebounds/56 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.0
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