Heat vs Hawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props

Hawks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 59.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Hawks.

Hawks vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Hawks will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 52.6% confidence.

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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 away games (+21.15 Units / 42% ROI)

The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 29 of their last 40 away games (+17.65 Units / 38% ROI)

The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.95 Units / 31% ROI)

The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.75 Units / 15% ROI)

The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.45 Units / 49% ROI)

Hawks Best Bets for Tonight:

The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+10.60 Units / 31% ROI)

The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games (+7.05 Units / 23% ROI)

The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.75 Units / 50% ROI)

The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+6.65 Units / 20% ROI)

The Atlanta Hawks have covered the 4Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.75 Units / 49% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 31-24 (+4.6 Units / 7.47% ROI).

29-27 against the Moneyline (-1.15 Units / -1.22% ROI)

28-27 against the Over for game total points (-1.7 Units / -2.76% ROI)

27-28 against the Under for game total points (-3.8 Units / -6.17% ROI)

Atlanta Hawks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 27-30 (-5.95 Units / -9.5% ROI).

27-30 against the Moneyline (-5.55 Units / -6.37% ROI)

29-28 against the Over for game total points (-1.8 Units / -2.87% ROI)

28-29 against the Under for game total points (-3.9 Units / -6.22% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Hawks:

The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 30 games at home (-14.95 Units / -44% ROI)

The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 2Q Spread in 18 of their last 45 games (-12.80 Units / -25% ROI)

The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 40 games (-11.75 Units / -24% ROI)

The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 16 of their last 40 games (-11.75 Units / -25% ROI)

The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 30 games at home (-11.10 Units / -32% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 40 games (-19.80 Units / -37% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 15 of their last 45 games (-19.45 Units / -37% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 50 games (-16.15 Units / -28% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only covered the 2H Spread in 15 of their last 40 games (-14.05 Units / -30% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 20 of their last 50 games (-13.24 Units / -19% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks

The Heat are 3-16 (.158) when they lose the turnover margin this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .398

The Heat are 16-10 (.615) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .520

The Heat were 33-8 (.805) when scoring 110 or more points in the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .659

The Heat are 34-33 (.507) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .553

Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Hawks are winless (0-20) when shooting 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .098

The Hawks are 15-31 (.326) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .546

The Hawks are 3-4 (.429) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .574

The Hawks are 1-10 (.091) when their eFG is 50% or worse this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .218

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 61.8 points per game (3,461 points/56 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 58.1

The Heat have averaged 27.2 points in the paint per game (1,522 points/56 games) in the second half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.1

The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat have averaged 28.6 assists per game (1,600 assists/56 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 26.6

Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks are shooting 46% from three (117/257) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

The Hawks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 (975 assists/ 453 TOs) on the road this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Hawks have averaged 30.4 assists per game (1,734 assists/57 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 26.6

The Hawks have averaged 15.8 assists per game (900 assists/57 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.7

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 37.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,092 rebounds/56 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.0

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (831 blocks/220 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 9.2 steals per game (513 steals/56 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks allowed opponents to shoot 41% from three (571/1,405) in the second half in the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Hawks have averaged 9.6 steals per game (1,329 steals/139 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.3

The Hawks stole the ball 798 times last season — 2nd most among NBA teams

The Hawks have averaged 8.8 steals per game (1,945 steals/221 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0