Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Jazz at Grizzlies on Friday.

Two days before the trade deadline, the Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies pulled off the most shocking deal of the 2025-26 NBA season, as the Grizzlies — long rumored to be parting ways with Ja Morant — dealt Jaren Jackson Jr. to the Jazz, who looked to be amidst the throes of another rebuild. They’ll face off for the first time since the trade tonight at 7 p.m. ET.

Jackson won’t be available to play in his revenge game because he underwent a knee procedure to remove a benign growth and is expected to miss the remainder of the season. Keyonte George (ankle) and Jusuf Nurkić (face) are also out for Utah, and Lauri Markkanen (illness) is questionable. Memphis’ injury list is also long: Santi Aldama (knee), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (finger), Brandon Clarke (calf), Cedric Coward (knee), Zach Edey (ankle), Ty Jerome (calf), Ja Morant (elbow), and Scotty Pippen Jr. (toe) are all out, with Walter Clayton Jr. (calf) doubtful.

Given the injuries, the Grizzlies are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 on the Moneyline). Utah is +110 on the Moneyline, and the point total is set to 236.5. Below, I’ll break down this clash of tanking teams and offer a prediction.

Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies preview, prediction

The Jackson era got off to a tremendous start for the Jazz, as they won two of their three games and dramatically improved their defense despite him not logging a single minute in the fourth quarter. In their limited minutes together, Jackson and Lauri Markkanen demonstrated that they could win games together, and Utah fans should be excited for next season. For the remainder of 2025-26, then, the focus will be on development for some of the Jazz’s young players, especially Ace Bailey. Brice Sensabaugh and Isaiah Collier have also shown plenty of signs as of late, with Sensabaugh scoring 28 points in Utah’s most recent game and Collier recording a 17-point, 22-assist masterpiece.

Memphis, meanwhile, will be experimenting with some new lineups. The Grizzlies have lost 10 of their last 12 games, and of their top 10 players in minutes per game, only Jaylen Wells, Cam Spencer, and Kyle Anderson are projected to suit up tonight. Their starting point guard could be second-round rookie Javon Small, who’s appeared in just 20 games of spot duty and has played more than 24 minutes only once. Olivier-Maxence Prosper could also get plenty of playing time, and GG Jackson II could be the top scoring option.

Jazz at Grizzlies pick, best bet

Since it traded Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis’ defense has expectedly fallen off a cliff, as it ranks just 27th in defensive rating and has won only once in its last five games (a narrow win over the even more awful Sacramento Kings in which 60 of its 129 points were scored by players who won’t be active tonight). If the rest of the team can figure out how to replace those buckets, it could be a pretty high-scoring affair, given that the Jazz have had the league’s worst defense this season, which has been even more horrific with Markkanen off the floor. It’s a big if, though: Wells has regressed as a shooter, barely touching a 50% effective field goal percentage, and he’ll have a pretty difficult defensive assignment if Markkanen plays.

In theory, the way to beat Utah is to get downhill. This season, the Jazz have allowed the third-highest percentage on attempts within the restricted area. However, the Grizzlies have already been among the worst teams in the league at getting downhill, and it’s hard to imagine them doing better tonight without any reliable center or point guard, and while Wells and GG Jackson can get to the rim somewhat, they aren’t threats to the same level as Morant, Jaren Jackson, and Edey are. The strategy to beat Memphis is virtually the same — the Grizzlies have also been bad at rim protection — and while Utah has also been bad at getting to the rim, Markkanen, its team leader in restricted-area attempts, could be active.

Neither of these teams are very good on the boards without their centers. Memphis could start the six-foot-eight Prosper or the six-foot-nine Jackson at center, and the Grizzlies haven’t snagged half of available rebounds with either of them. Meanwhile, the Jazz have had a rebounding percentage 5.9 percentage points lower with Nurkić off the floor, and they’ve also been 5.0 percentage points worse without Markkanen. Memphis might be slightly better in transition, especially defensively, but neither team is very good in either of those aspects.

The Grizzlies could have a slight shooting edge, given that Utah has allowed among the most wide-open threes per game and Memphis — even amidst its cold streak — has allowed among the fewest. Across that same span, the Grizzlies have given up the highest field goal percentage on wide-open triples, while the Jazz’s opponents have been the fourth-least accurate. Memphis has also been slightly better at generating wide-open shoots than Utah has, and Markkanen has more gravity than any absent Grizzly, so if he doesn’t play, that chasm could widen. It’s not like either team has great shooters active, but in Cam Spencer, Memphis has the best individual shooter on either team.

Given the multitude of absences on both of these teams, it’s pretty hard to choose either to win. Though the Grizzlies could have a slight advantage, especially if Markkanen sits, it’s hard to pick a team that could be starting two two-way players. The safest bet, then, is on both teams’ awful defenses. The Jazz still have a decent offense even without Markkanen, but their defense has collapsed, and they should be better offensively without the lumbering Nurkić to slow down the pace.

Best bet: Over 236.5 (-105)