Bill Yin breaks down his prediction and pick for Friday’s game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks.

The 34-22 Timberwolves will host the 19-35 Mavericks tonight at 7:30 PM EST. Cooper Flagg has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest due to a foot injury.

The Timberwolves are 14.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 239.5 points.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks prediction, preview

The Mavericks don’t have much to play for this season. They’re 9.5 games back from the ninth seed and can’t field a competitive roster. Kyrie Irving’s decision to continue rehabbing this season is evidence of Dallas waving the white flag. They’ll also likely be cautious with their prized rookie’s health over this last stretch of the season and we could be in for some silly season lineups soon. The Mavericks will be short handed tonight and will rely on Brandon Williams, Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, PJ Washington, and maybe Daniel Gafford. Dallas’ offense hasn’t been particularly effective this season, but they’ve been decent on the other end, posting a 12th-best 113.5 DEFRTG so far this season. They’ll return at full strength next season and it’ll be interesting to follow Flagg’s development as the Mavs try to put the Luka Doncic/Anthony Davis fiasco behind them for good.

The Timberwolves have been staying in the mix in a very competitive Western Conference. They’re eight games behind the second seed but only one game behind the third seed. The pecking order in the West could change on any given day and the Wolves will be sure to stay on high alert, even when they’re -14.5 favorites. Anthony Edwards has taken another leap this season and is currently playing the best basketball of his career. He’s averaging 29.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 3.7 APG while slashing .493/.402/.795, and it’s his FG% that’s responsible for uplifting his TS to 62%, an excellent mark and by far the highest of his career despite his sub-80 free throw percentage. He’ll continue anchoring this Wolves offense as they push for another playoff run.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks pick, best bet

Best Bet: Minnesota Timberwolves -9.5 (-216)

Minnesota’s an enormous favorite but it’s tough for the Mavericks to get close tonight, especially without Flagg. Dallas has covered the spread just three times in their last 10 games, and tonight’s another tough ask in an away game against a competitive Western team.