Jazz vs Grizzlies picks are always tricky because you never know which version of either team you are going to get, but this one has a very clear betting angle once you dig into the injuries, the trade history, and the way this total has been priced. Memphis and Utah meet on Friday night with both teams missing a ton of bodies, and the market is still hanging a number in the high-230s. If you want more matchups like this, I always recommend checking out these NBA picks before placing your card.
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Terms & Conditions Quick Picks and Prediction Spread Pick: Utah +1 Total Pick: Under 238.5 Projected Final Score: Utah 118, Memphis 114 Odds and Line Movement
This is one of those games where the line movement tells the entire story. We have seen the spread flip from Memphis laying multiple possessions to basically a pickem, and we have also seen the total get bet down from the 240s into the high-230s.
That kind of movement is not random. It is almost always tied to availability, and both of these teams are dealing with major rotation issues heading into this matchup. 
Opening Odds Team Spread Total Utah +4.5 (-110) Over 243.5 (-110) Memphis -4.5 (-110) Under 243.5 (-110) Current Odds Team Spread Total Utah +1 (-110) Over 238.5 (-108) Memphis -1 (-110) Under 238.5 (-112) Line Movement – Spread Date Time Utah Memphis Public ($, #) 02/16 11:48:26PM +4.5 (-110) -4.5 (-110) 02/17 03:42:34PM +4.5 (-115) -4.5 (-105) 02/19 06:07:57PM +5 (-106) -5 (-114) 02/19 06:08:49PM +5 (-106) -5 (-114) 02/19 06:09:04PM +5 (-106) -5 (-114) 02/19 06:10:08PM +5 (-106) -5 (-114) 02/19 06:13:07PM +5 (-110) -5 (-110) 02/19 06:30:28PM +4.5 (-110) -4.5 (-110) 02/19 06:30:53PM +4.5 (-110) -4.5 (-110) 02/19 06:31:18PM +4.5 (-110) -4.5 (-110) 02/19 06:34:54PM +4 (-110) -4 (-110) 02/19 06:51:34PM +3.5 (-115) -3.5 (-105) 02/19 06:51:35PM +3.5 (-112) -3.5 (-108) 02/19 06:52:47PM +3 (-110) -3 (-110) 02/19 09:58:02PM +3 (-110) -3 (-110) 02/19 09:58:08PM +3 (-110) -3 (-110) 02/19 09:58:11PM +3 (-110) -3 (-110) 02/19 10:04:57PM +2.5 (-110) -2.5 (-110) 02/19 10:04:58PM +2.5 (-110) -2.5 (-110) 02/19 02:21:03AM +2 (-110) -2 (-110) 02/20 02:21:12AM +2 (-110) -2 (-110) MEM 73%, MEM 80% 02/20 06:58:47AM +1.5 (-110) -1.5 (-110) MEM 65%, UTA 50% 02/20 06:59:09AM +1 (-110) -1 (-110) MEM 65%, UTA 50% 02/20 06:59:11AM +1 (-110) -1 (-110) MEM 65%, UTA 50% Line Movement – Total Date Time Over Under Public ($, #) 02/16 11:48:26PM Over 243.5 (-110) Under 243.5 (-110) 02/17 05:42:04AM Over 243.5 (-110) Under 243.5 (-110) 02/17 02:34:51PM Over 241.5 (-110) Under 241.5 (-110) 02/17 02:37:18PM Over 241.5 (-105) Under 241.5 (-115) 02/19 12:21:56AM Over 241.5 (-112) Under 241.5 (-108) 02/19 06:08:50PM Over 240 (-110) Under 240 (-110) 02/19 06:09:04PM Over 240 (-110) Under 240 (-110) 02/19 06:10:08PM Over 240 (-110) Under 240 (-110) 02/19 06:30:37PM Over 239.5 (-110) Under 239.5 (-110) 02/19 06:30:56PM Over 239 (-110) Under 239 (-110) 02/19 06:31:22PM Over 239 (-110) Under 239 (-110) 02/19 09:58:22PM Over 240 (-110) Under 240 (-110) 02/19 10:32:33PM Over 239.5 (-110) Under 239.5 (-110) 02/19 10:48:41PM Over 239.5 (-106) Under 239.5 (-114) 02/19 10:51:58PM Over 238.5 (-106) Under 238.5 (-114) 02/20 01:02:46AM Over 238.5 (-112) Under 238.5 (-108) 02/20 05:11:26AM Over 238.5 (-108) Under 238.5 (-112) OV 77%, OV 75% Jazz vs Grizzlies Key Matchups and Handicap
There are a few angles in this game that matter more than the typical “who is better” conversation. This is not a normal Utah vs Memphis matchup, and the market movement shows it.
First, Memphis has won six of the last seven meetings, including a nine-point road win in Salt Lake City in late December. Each of the last three meetings have gone over the total. That is the historical note, but it is not the main story tonight.
The main story is availability. Utah is missing multiple rotation pieces and Memphis is dealing with a long list of absences that impacts every part of the game, especially ball-handling and late-clock scoring.
Memphis entered the All-Star break on a four-game losing streak, but the Grizzlies have still covered the spread in five of their last six games. That tells me the market has been overreacting to their record while the effort level has stayed solid.
Utah has been in the middle of constant noise this season, including a league fine before the All-Star break for “resting” players in advantageous spots. Even with that chaos, the Jazz have covered the spread in six of their last seven games. That is the exact profile of a team that bettors hate, but sharp money keeps respecting.
This is also the front end of a back-to-back for Memphis, who will travel to Miami on Saturday. That matters because it changes rotation decisions. If you are down bodies, you have to pick your spots with minutes, and you do not want to run your key guys into the ground on the first night.
The total is the most interesting part of the board. Six of the Grizzlies’ last seven games have gone over the total. Each of the last three meetings between these teams have gone over. Yet, we have seen early money come in on the under and push this number down from the 240s to 238.5.
I agree with that move. The injury list, plus the emotional angle of former teammates facing each other after a massive trade, is the type of spot where you usually get more half-court possessions and more defensive focus than the public expects.
That trade on February 3 matters too. Utah sent Kyle Anderson, Taylor Hendricks, Georges Niang, and Walter Clayton Jr. to Memphis in exchange for Jaren Jackson Jr., Jock Landale, John Konchar, and Vince Williams Jr. It is one of the stranger deals you will see, and it is absolutely the type of move that adds edge to a matchup like this.
Even if both teams have made questionable front-office decisions, the players on the floor still want to win. In games like this, I often see just enough effort on defense to keep the score a little lower than the market expects.
Betting Trends (UTA and MEM) Memphis has won six of the last seven meetings against Utah. Each of the last three meetings between Utah and Memphis have gone over the total. Memphis has covered the spread in five of its last six games. Six of Memphis’ last seven games have gone over the total. Utah has covered the spread in six of its last seven games. Key Injuries and Notes (UTA and MEM) Utah: Jusuf Nurkic is out. Utah: Keyonte George is out. Utah: Jaren Jackson Jr. is out. Utah: Oscar Tshiebwe is questionable. Memphis: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out. Memphis: Scotty Pippen Jr. is out. Memphis: Cedric Coward is out. Memphis: Ty Jerome is out. Memphis: Santi Aldama is out. Memphis: Ja Morant is out. Memphis: Zach Edey is out. Memphis: Brandon Clarke is out. Memphis: Walter Clayton Jr. is doubtful. Memphis is on the front end of a back-to-back and travels to Miami on Saturday. ATS and Total Picks Spread: Utah +1 (-110) Total: Under 238.5 (-112) Final Score Prediction
I am expecting a competitive game with both teams playing harder than the public thinks. With the total still sitting in the high-230s and both rosters thinned out, I see more empty possessions than the market is pricing in.
Projected Final Score: Utah 118, Memphis 114
How to Bet
If you are betting Jazz vs Grizzlies, I think the best approach is to stay disciplined and avoid chasing the “name value” side. Memphis has the stronger recent head-to-head results, but this current roster situation is not close to normal.
My favorite bet is the under because the number is still inflated from prior meetings and recent Memphis totals. I also like Utah on the spread because the market has moved so far that you are no longer paying a premium to fade Memphis.
If you are shopping for the best price, make sure you are using sportsbook promo codes and comparing multiple best sportsbooks before locking in your ticket.
For bettors who prefer lower-variance options, social sportsbooks can also be a smart way to attack NBA slates without risking too much bankroll on one game.
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