Feb. 21, 2026, 10:57 p.m. ET

The Cleveland Cavaliers (36-21) and Oklahoma City Thunder (43-14) meet Sunday at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Cavaliers vs. Thunder odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Thunder lead 1-0

Oklahoma City won 136-104 in Cleveland on Jan. 19 as a 6-point favorite as the Over (229.5) cashed. OKC has won 5 of the past 6 meetings, while also going 5-1 against the spread (ATS). The Over has connected in 4 in a row in the series.

The Cavaliers have won 7 in a row, including a 118-113 win over the Charlotte Hornets to kick off the 2-game trip Friday, but they just missed the cover as 5.5-point favorites as the Over (229.5) cashed. G Donovan Mitchell willed his team to victory, posting 32 points with 5 assists, 3 rebounds and 2 steals with 2 3-pointers, while C Jarrett Allen was good for 26 points, 14 rebounds and a block.

Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in the past 7 games, while going 8-3 ATS across the previous 11 outings. The Over and Under has alternated in the past 7 contests.

The Thunder thumped the Brooklyn Nets 105-86 Friday as 17-point favorites as the Under (215.5) connected. G Jared McCain stepped up with 21 points on 7-of-12 shooting, including 3-of-6 from behind the 3-point line, while C Isaiah Hartenstein ended up with 10 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks with a steal.

OKC continues to be without G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander due to a strained abdominal muscle, and G Jalen Williams is also out with the same ailment.

OKC is a very ordinary 6-6 SU in the past 12 games, playing many of those games without SGA and/or Williams. However, the Thunder are 3-1 ATS in the past 4 games, and 5-2-1 ATS in the previous 8 outings. The Over has a 4-2 advantage in the past 6, although the Under has hit in the past 2 games.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Cavaliers at Thunder odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:56 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cavaliers -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Thunder +118 (bet $100 to win $118)Against the spread: Cavaliers -2.5 (-110) | Thunder +2.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Cavaliers at Thunder key injuries

Cavaliers

Thunder

G Alex Caruso (ankle) outG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal) outG Ajay Mitchell (abdominal, ankle) outC Thomas Sorber (knee) outG Jalen Williams (hamstring) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Cavaliers at Thunder picks and predictionsPrediction

Cavaliers 116, Thunder 111

The Cavaliers (-145) are slight road favorites, as they look to avenge a loss in mid-January. The Thunder had Gilgeous-Alexander, the defending MVP, in that one, though. Look for Cleveland to level the series in this NBA Finals preview. However, when betting the slight favorite, lay the little bit of points, rather than paying up for very little insurance.

PASS.

The CAVALIERS -2.5 (-110) are a better play laying the points, rather than paying up for a tiny amount of wiggle room.

While OKC has been much better against the number lately, despite the fact SGA and Williams have both been missing time, Cleveland is still the play. The Cavs are 3-1 ATS in the past 4 games, 7-3 ATS in the past 10 road games, and 8-3 in the past 11 contests overall.

The OVER 225.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.

The Over has cashed in 5 of the past 8 games for the Cavaliers, and the game went well Over in the first meeting in Cleveland, although, again, SGA was able to play then.

While OKC is shorthanded, and it has hit the Under in the past 2 games, the Over is 4-2 in the previous 6 outings, and 10-5 across the past 15 games. The defense has allowed at least 109 points in 5 of the past 6 games, too.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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