The New Orleans pick has quietly become one of the most important variables in the Atlanta Hawks’ long-term outlook. As the season winds down, Hawks fans are watching the Western Conference standings almost as closely as their own team’s games. And for good reason. The value of the New Orleans pick could meaningfully shape the franchise’s next phase.
Should the Hawks Be Worried About the Pelicans’ Pick?
New Orleans currently sits at 16-42, the second worst record in the Western Conference. For much of the season, they held the worst record outright. However, Sacramento’s recent 16-game losing streak has shifted the bottom of the standings, moving the Kings below them. That subtle movement matters because lottery positioning can dramatically alter what the New Orleans pick ultimately becomes on draft night.
According to Tankathon, New Orleans currently holds a 12.5% chance of securing the top pick in the draft and a 25.7% chance of landing in the top six. But the anxiety surrounding the Pelicans pick stems from one looming possibility: what if it lands in the top three?
The fear is understandable. A jump into the top three reshapes draft value instantly. If the Pelicans’ draft position rises, it directly affects how much upside the pick carries. The difference between picking fourth and picking second is not minor. It can mean access to a franchise level prospect instead of a tier below. For a team building around youth and upside, that distinction matters.
May 12, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, US; A person watches the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
How Much Should Atlanta Actually Worry?
The conversation around the Pelicans pick is driven by uncertainty, not inevitability. Lottery odds are weighted, not guaranteed. Finishing with one of the worst records improves the chances of landing in the top three, but it does not lock it in. Movement happens every year. Teams jump. Teams fall. That unpredictability applies directly to the New Orleans pick.
From Atlanta’s perspective, the key is understanding risk versus probability. Yes, New Orleans has been near the bottom of the conference all season. Yes, their record increases the odds that their pick could climb into premium territory. But the lottery system exists specifically to prevent standings from becoming a direct draft order mirror.
It is also important to consider context. Sacramento’s collapse has reshuffled the Western Conference basement. A 16-game losing streak is not a small sample. If that slide continues, it changes the math tied to the Pelicans draft position. The difference between the worst record and the second worst record carries lottery implications, but not certainty.
If anything, the anxiety surrounding the New Orleans pick speaks to how valuable the asset has become. When fans worry about sliding from third to fourth, it signals belief in the rebuild’s direction. That is not panic. That is investment in what the New Orleans pick could represent.
FWIW — The reason I would suggest the Hawks should prefer a Bucks win is the FLOOR of the pick, not the ceiling.
For example: If New Orleans finishes in the top 3, the pick can’t be lower than 7th and would be very likely to be top 6. https://t.co/tmZKG9jVbh
— Brad Rowland (@BTRowland) February 20, 2026
Why the Lottery Margin Between Three and Four Matters
The real question is not simply whether the Hawks should be worried about the Pelicans pick. It is whether the difference between No. 3 and No. 4 materially changes their trajectory. A top-three selection would be ideal. No one disputes that. But even at fourth, the New Orleans pick remains strong leverage in trades or as a developmental cornerstone.
Historically, elite talent has emerged from every spot in the top five. While the Pelicans draft position may shape perception, development and scouting ultimately determine whether the New Orleans pick becomes a franchise altering piece.
Should there be concern? Mildly. Should there be panic over the New Orleans pick? No.
Lottery night will ultimately decide the outcome. Until then, the New Orleans pick remains a moving target shaped by probabilities and ping pong balls. Hawks fans can monitor the standings, track Sacramento’s slide, and refresh mock drafts daily. Luckily, the Hawks receive help from Milwaukee, as they are entitled to the more favorable pick between the Pelicans and the Bucks. That means Atlanta essentially gets two bites at landing a top-four pick in this loaded draft, increasing their upside while reducing the risk.
The Hawks are positioned to benefit regardless. Whether the Pelicans draft position yields No. 2, No. 3, or No. 4, Atlanta holds a meaningful asset in a strong draft tier. The margins matter, but they do not define everything.
For now, the smartest approach is patience. The standings may shift again. Sacramento’s streak could end. New Orleans could win a few unexpected games. The Pelicans draft position will continue to fluctuate until the lottery locks it in, and they are probably kicking themselves after the draft night trade that shifted the trajectory of the Hawks’ franchise moving forward.
And when the night finally arrives, the New Orleans pick will stop being theoretical and start being tangible. Until then, it is a calculated gamble — not a crisis.
© Dale Zanine-Imagn Images