Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for the Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors NBA matchup.
Tipping off at 3:40 p.m. ET across an 11-game NBA slate, the Denver Nuggets will face off with the Golden State Warriors.
This is the third of the four matchups between these two Western Conference opponents this season. They kicked off the season with an opening night matchup against each other, which resulted in a 137-131 overtime victory by the Warriors. Denver then produced a commanding 129-104 victory in the second matchup, which took place on November 7th. Plenty has changed with both teams since this point.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Nuggets enter as 6.5-point favorites and hold -270 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Warriors hold +220 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 227.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Sunday night matchup.
Nuggets vs. Warriors Preview
The Denver Nuggets sit in third place in the Western Conference with a 36-21 record on the season. They have split their two matchups since returning from the All-Star break, falling 115-114 to the Clippers on Thursday before blowing out the Trail Blazers 157-103 the next night. On the season, the Nuggets have gone 32-25 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 36 of their 57 games played.
Nikola Jokic headlines the production for the Nuggets. The three-time MVP is averaging 28.6 points and leading the NBA with 12.3 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game. Jamal Murray earned his first All-Star appearance this season and is posting averages of 25.6 points, 7.6 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game. Murray is listed as questionable with right hamstring tightness. Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon, and Jalen Pickett each remain sidelined due to their respective injuries. Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr, Bruce Brown, Spencer Jones, and Jonas Valanciunas each play key roles in the rotation.
As a team, the Nuggets lead the NBA in scoring by averaging 120.9 points per game. They also lead the league in offensive rating, rank second in field goal percentage, and first in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.1 points per game against the Nuggets, which ranks 17th in the league. Denver also ranks 23rd in defensive rating, 13th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and eighth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Golden State Warriors have slipped to eighth place in the Western Conference with a 29-27 record on the year. They suffered a 121-110 loss to the Celtics in their first game back from the All-Star break, and have lost three of their past four games. On the season, the Warriors have gone 25-31 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 33 of their 56 games played.
Steph Curry remains sidelined with his knee injury, with this set to be his seventh consecutive game missed. Jimmy Butler will miss the remainder of the season with his ACL tear, while Seth Curry and Kristaps Porzingis will also miss tonight’s game. Of the available bodies, Brandin Podziemski posts averages of 12.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. De’Anthony Melton adds 11.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, while Moses Moody, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Al Horford, and Pat Spencer make an impact in their respective roles.
Steve Kerr’s squad is scoring 115.4 points per game this season, which ranks 16th in the NBA. The Warriors also rank 14th in offensive rating, 22nd in field goal percentage, and 12th in three-point percentage while launching the most perimeter shots in the league. Defensively, opponents are scoring 113.8 points per game against Golden State, which ranks 11th in the league. The Warriors rank ninth in defensive rating, 18th in opponents’ field goal percentage allowed, and 10th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction, Best Bet
The Warriors’ organization deserves some credit for attempting to reinvent themselves and keep the championship window open around Steph Curry for as long as possible. But there comes a point where you can only shift which holes you cover for so long before the ship goes down. At full strength, Golden State could be viewed as a dark-horse postseason threat that can go toe-to-toe with any team on any given night. But without Curry and Jimmy Butler, there is just not the level of offensive creation on this roster that it requires to match this elite Nuggets offense.
Even with Denver dealing with some significant injuries of their own, Nikola Jokic will be the best player on the floor by a comfortable margin. He is capable of elevating the roster around him in a way that no player on Golden State can. The Warriors have averaged just 107.3 points per game over their past three losses and have given up 120+ points in back-to-back games.
If you are not capable of scoring effectively and putting up points at a high rate, this Nuggets team will run you off the floor. Expect things to play out this way tonight, with the available roster of the Warriors not capable of matching this level of scoring output. Denver is the better overall team, with more healthy bodies and in better form.
The Nuggets are covering the spread at a 56.1% rate this season, which is the sixth-best rate in the league. They have shown a resiliency to battle through injuries and other obstacles this season and have maintained their place in the standings as one of the best teams in basketball. This is a deeper supporting cast than what Nikola Jokic has had success with before, and this will be especially evident in a game like today against a shorthanded opponent.
Count on Denver having plenty of offensive success and pushing the scoring to a level the Warriors have no chance of matching. The 6.5-point spread is one I am plenty comfortable backing, and this is a matchup that may be worth eyeing some alternate lines, such as Nuggets -9.5 at +125 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Don’t be shocked if this one gets out of control, and for the Nuggets to produce a comfortable victory in this Western Conference battle.