Updated Feb. 23, 2026, 2:36 p.m. ET

It seemed Kansas Jayhawks freshman was not only a lock for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft but one of the best guard prospects in memory.

Peterson is undoubtedly one of the most talented players in college. However, he has missed significant time this season due to various injuries. Following a recent upset loss from Kansas against Cincinnati at home, the whispers about him potentially no longer hearing his name called first on draft night are getting louder.

After missing nearly a month of action early in the season following the first two games of his freshman campaign, the star prospect has dealt with several cramps. He has also reportedly suffered from issues with his ankle as well as his hamstring and quad. The guard also missed a game against then-undefeated Arizona due to illness.

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Peterson was projected at No. 1 overall to the Washington Wizards in USA TODAY’s latest mock draft.

Recent concerns about his availability and his overall competitiveness have clouded his sky-high potential. Here is more from Michael DeCourcy (via Sporting News):

“You’d have to be naive not to be concerned,” an NBA personnel executive told The Sporting News. “One of the scariest things in the league is a guy who has to be 100 percent to play.”

Peterson recently spoke directly about that criticism (via ESPN):

“Everybody’s got an opinion on it,” Peterson told ESPN between the Arizona and Oklahoma State games. “But basketball is my life. If I could have been out there every game this year, I would have. If you would have asked me last year, what were my goals for this year, I would never mention missing games. So all this stuff kind of just happened, but I’ve got to deal with it.”

As of right now, it is unclear if those conversations have actually lowered those odds. Prediction markets, while problematic and not always accurate, are telling an interesting story.

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Back on Feb. 4, the implied probability of Peterson at No. 1 overall on Kalshi was as high as 70.1 percent while BYU’s AJ Dybantsa sat at 19.8 percent. Less than three ways later, on Feb. 23, Peterson sits at 44.4 percent and Dybantsa is at a personal-best 50.8 percent.

Similarly, on Polymarket, Peterson was as high as 75 percent on Feb. 8 while Dybantsa was at 20 percent. The odds opened with Peterson at 45 percent and Dybantsa at 41 percent on Feb. 23 this morning.

The more legitimized FanDuel sportsbook has a similar projection right now, though they are slightly more bullish on the Kansas guard, offering Peterson with a 55.6 percent probability and Dybantsa at 43.5 percent.

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons recently told Zach Lowe that he “would have bet anything on” two months ago. Now, he says that he’s “not sure” if he still feels that way.

Most public mock drafts and big boards still hold Peterson in the pole position but he is not the consensus No. 1 overall pick like Cooper Flagg or Victor Wembanyama in recent years.

The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie has Dybantsa at No. 1 overall on his big board. SI.com’s Derek Parkeralso put Dybantsa at No. 1 overall in his latest mock draft. So, too, did on3.com’s Jamie Shaw and SB Nation’s Ricky O’Donnell.

We won’t know where Peterson goes until we see conference tournaments, March Madness, the lottery, the NBA Draft Combine, and pre-draft workouts. But for now, it certainly seems as if the chances of Peterson at No. 1 are currently much lower than they once were.

Peterson will have a chance to make a case for himself at No. 1 overall when the Jayhawks face the Houston Cougars on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET on Monday evening.