Feb. 23, 2026, 6:06 p.m. CT
Even though Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has missed three weeks, the telltale signs show that he’s running away with the MVP award. To the point that the question might be how large a margin he wins the prestigious trophy by.
ESPN released its latest NBA MVP straw poll this past Friday. Tim Bontemps’ brainchild has been an accurate forecast tool over the years of who might come away with the yearly award. He questions 100 local, national and international media members in a mock vote that resembles the real thing.
Every NBA regular season, ESPN updates its MVP straw poll three times — at around every one-third mark. In the second one for the 2025-26 campaign, Gilgeous-Alexander is so ahead of the rest of the field that he’s lapped them twice.
Gilgeous-Alexander has 930 total voting points. For reference, a first-place vote counts for 10 points; second-place for seven; third-place for five; fourth place for three; and fifth place for one point. Nikola Jokic is the runner-up with 700 voting points.
Gilgeous-Alexander has 78 first-place votes. Jokic has 18. Victor Wembanyama has three and Cade Cunningham has one. The rest of the reigning MVP’s points go to 20 second-place votes and two third-place votes.
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Summed up, Gilgeous-Alexander looks like he’s going to easily win his second consecutive MVP trophy — barring missing any additional time. He’s played in 49 of OKC’s 58 games. That means he can only miss seven more games the rest of the way to stay eligible with the controversial 65-game minimum rule for awards.
Gilgeous-Alexander will miss nine games with an abdominal strain. The 2026 NBA All-Star break cut him a break with a week off without burning any contests.
If Gilgeous-Alexander returns relatively soon, he should stay ahead of the rest of the field. Most likely because the other top candidates have missed too much time. He’ll seal things if the Oklahoma City Thunder can finish with the first seed or the NBA’s best record.
The Thunder sit atop the standings with a 44-14 record. Being plagued by injuries has only slightly deterred them from being the league’s title favorite. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 31.8 points on 55.4% shooting, 6.4 assists and 4.4 rebounds.