A better future Miami Heat pathway to Giannis Antetokounmpo?

In the end, no Giannis Antetokounmpo on Tuesday night at Fiserv Forum for the Milwaukee Bucks and no Giannis Antetokounmpo on Tuesday night at Fiserv Forum for the Miami Heat.

The latter always felt like a longshot, even with all the Antetokounmpo trade swirl around the Feb. 5 NBA trade deadline. So, instead, Giannis still a Buck — for now — sidelined with a calf strain for the Heat’s lone visit of the season to Milwaukee.

The thought at the NBA trade deadline was that if the Bucks do move off of Giannis, more could be gained in the offseason, as additional draft picks are either freed up or come into greater clarity when it comes to the 2026 order.

To some, that also was the perspective on what the Heat could have offered on Feb. 5 vs. what could be offered this coming offseason, when Antetokounmpo takes perhaps a less wishy-washy stance in his future.

As long as there is even a chance — as remote as it might be — of the 10-time All-Star shaking free, which could be more likely this summer, when he could stand a single season from free agency (with a player option for 2027-28), there is little doubt the Heat will be monitoring the situation.

Just as they were on Feb. 4, even as it became clear that night that the Bucks weren’t going to make a move.

Just as they were on Feb. 5, because it’s never over until it’s over.

So the question therefore becomes: Are the assets the Heat will hold in the offseason necessarily more attractive than what had been or could have been offered by Feb. 5?

As with all trade machinations, that often becomes a matter of perspective.

Draft capital: At the trade deadline, the Heat were positioned to trade only their 2030 and 2032 first-rounds picks, due to the future first-round pick owed to the Charlotte Hornets from the Terry Rozier deal and the rule banning teams being without first-round picks in consecutive future drafts (thereby encumbering the Heat’s 2027, ’28 and ’29 first-rounders).

The difference in the offseason is the Heat can pick a player for the Bucks with their first-round pick in June and then offer Milwaukee pairs of picks in either 2030 and ’32, or in 2031 and ’33.

While some NBA outlets have mentioned the Heat having up to four first-round picks available to send out this summer, that is incorrect. At the moment, when counting making a 2026 pick for the Bucks, only a maximum of three would be unencumbered.

Tyler Herro: At the Feb. 5 NBA trading deadline, Herro was considered a prime contract to be flipped to the Bucks as a means of balancing an Antetokounmpo deal under the salary cap. But at that time, Herro had appeared in only 11 games, sidelined since Jan. 15 by a rib injury.

By this summer, there should be a better read on Herro’s durability going forward, as well as a chance for the Heat to potentially showcase him as something closer to his 2025 All-Star status.

Ancillary players: At the trade deadline, it was believed the Heat would have been willing to deal anyone this side of Bam Adebayo, which could have had in play up-and-comers such as Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, Pelle Larsson and Kasparas Jakucionis.

And that, as much as any components to a possible Giannis deal, make this intervening period so intriguing.

Ware in the interim, for example, has gone from contributing starter to limited-minutes reserve. Jovic has fallen out of the rotation. Jaquez has leveled off. By contrast, Larsson and Jakucionis have played at a level that could create Heat pause in loading up a package.

Matching contracts: At the Feb. 5 trade deadline, the Heat, for matching purposes under the salary cap, not only had the the $31 million salary of Herro to put in play, but also the salaries of Andrew Wiggins ($28.2 million), Terry Rozier ($26.6 million) and Norman Powell ($20.5 million).

This offseason, those three latter salaries all could be gone, with Rozier to come off the books, Powell to be off the books unless extended, and Wiggins to be off the books unless he picks up his $30.2 million player option for 2026-27.

Competing parties: At the trade deadline, beyond the Heat, the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors all were considered potential Giannis suitors. The Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Detroit Pistons and other leading contenders, by contrast, seemed content to instead move forward with what is in place.

In that regard, by the offseason, postseason missteps by the Knicks, 76ers, Magic, Warriors and Raptors could have them upping the ante beyond what they previously might have offered or what Heat could offer, with the Rockets, Spurs, Thunder and Pistons to come to find during the playoffs if they are one MVP-level talent shy at power forward.

The Bucks’ reality: And then there is how this plays out for the Bucks.

With a bit of lottery luck, the Bucks could find themselves with the highest-level supporting player they’ve had for Giannis in years.

By contrast, if it continues to careen out of control for Milwaukee with no lottery luck or personnel upgrades, the long-awaited Antetokounmpo ultimatum might actually arrive.