Oldfield’s prediction: Points come easy in Big D.
Mar 1, 2026 • 09:28 ET
• 4 min read
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) goes up for a basket.
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in action, the Oklahoma City Thunder have regained some of their swagger, and they’re big favorites tonight as they visit the Dallas Mavericks.
Dallas has dropped 10 of its past 12 games and is dealing with an array of injuries, but my Thunder vs. Mavericks predictions point to both teams’ offenses showing up in this one.
Keep scrolling for my NBA picks and betting tips ahead of this March 1 battle.
Thunder vs Mavericks prediction
Thunder vs Mavericks best bet: Over 234 (-110)
While we may think of the Oklahoma City Thunder for its excellent defense, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. also boast the league’s third-most prolific offense at 119.5 PPG, so I’m buying into a shootout.
The Over is 8-2 in the Thunder’s last 10 contests, and it’s 16-11 this year when OKC is a road favorite. Shai’s return shifts the visitors’ rotation back into more natural roles, and they’re facing a Dallas Mavericks squad that’s allowed 120+ points in eight of its past nine outings.
Sure, the Mavs’ injuries put a dent in their playmaking, but they’ve still hit the Over in three of their last four games.
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Thunder vs Mavericks same-game parlay
SGA was back with a bang on Friday, with 36 points and nine dimes, and I’m jumping on this assists Over here. Going back pre-injury, that’s now four straight games where the MVP has eased past the O/U line.
The Mavs will need to play their part, too. Even though the offense can get clunky at times, Khris Middleton is averaging 15.2 PPG in his last five outings.
His veteran savvy will be key against this OKC defense.
Thunder vs Mavericks SGP
Over 234
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists
Khris Middleton Over 13.5 points
Our “from downtown” SGP: Show the bigs some love
Get ready for some bruising collisions in the paint.
I’m loading up on rebounds and blocks Overs, with Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Daniel Gafford all capable of dominating the paint.
Thunder vs Mavericks SGP
Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 rebounds
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 0.5 blocks
Daniel Gafford Over 1.5 blocks
Thunder vs Mavericks odds
Spread: Thunder -16 | Mavericks +16
Moneyline: Thunder -1205 | Mavericks +750
Over/Under: Over 234 | Under 234
Thunder vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Mavs are 13-26 ATS against Western Conference opponents this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Thunder vs Mavericks
Location
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date
Sunday, March 1, 2026
Tip-off
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
FDSN Oklahoma, MavsTV
Thunder vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tom Oldfield’s sports writing journey over the past 20 years has taken him from the Premier League and Champions League to the NFL, NBA, WNBA and MLB, with a wide range of articles and betting previews. Tom has worked closely with London’s Sportsbeat sports news agency as well as (thrillingly!) covering the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 NBA championship run, and he has appeared on BBC World Service and The Back Page podcast.
A graduate of the University of Nottingham in the UK, he is the author of biographies on Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Nadal, Gary Neville and Cesc Fabregas, and he co-authors a long-running series of children’s soccer books with his brother, Matt.
As a regular bettor across the top sports leagues, particularly with FanDuel and bet365, he is well versed on all the major markets and the next big game is rarely far from his thoughts. The best betting advice he has received is to monitor multiple sportsbooks to grab the best possible value.
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