College basketball is bigger than ever.
This season, the average standing height — just over 6-foot-5 — is the tallest ever. Earlier this season, I wrote about why teams are sizing up, with some even starting three bigs together.
This week’s top five includes two of those teams (Michigan and Florida), and out of the eight teams I wrote about this week below, six start at least three players 6-7 or taller. Two (Duke and Michigan State) have four players 6-6 or taller in the starting lineup.
More below on those six teams — Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Michigan State and Saint Mary’s — plus thoughts on UConn’s clutchness and Texas Tech somehow playing even better without All-American JT Toppin.
Dropped out: BYU, Saint Louis
Keeping an eye on: Utah State, Miami (Fla.), Miami (Ohio)
1. Duke (27-2)
Last week: Beat Notre Dame 100-56 and No. 11 Virginia 77-51
Duke is now the best defense in the country, according to KenPom’s metrics, moving into that spot this week for the first time all season.
Jon Scheyer has proven to be an elite defensive coach, and there are a few areas where Duke has evolved since Scheyer took over for Mike Krzyzewski. In the Scheyer era, opponents’ possessions last longer, 3-point rates have gone up, and Duke has prioritized defensive rebounding, with this team rating as Scheyer’s best in that area.
Here’s a comparison of Coach K’s final four teams with Scheyer’s first four:
APLRank3PA%DR%RankAdjDRank
2018-19
17.5
172
34.9
70.5
238
89.3
6
2019-20
16.6
42
26.7
72
176
91.1
12
2020-21
17.3
165
32.3
71
213
97
79
2021-22
17.6
171
33.6
70.8
227
95.9
49
2022-23
17.9
231
35.6
74
69
93.9
16
2023-24
18.1
315
34.7
74.1
55
95.2
16
2024-25
19
362
38.3
72.7
58
90.8
5
2025-26
18.4
342
45.6
75.3
6
88.1
1
(Note: The lower the rank in every possession, the better if the goal is to force long possessions.)
Scheyer leaning into positional size, prioritizing taking away the paint and forcing teams to the baseline explain these numbers. Studying the tape, one thing that really sticks out is Duke’s ability to quickly make a fix inside a possession:
The switching on and off the ball, covering for one another, using their length to make it hard to make skip passes and the ability to simply defend one-on-one makes it really difficult to get good looks and why opponents are often operating late in the clock. Virginia had nine possessions that went into the final four seconds of the shot clock.
Virginia scored a season-low 0.84 points per possession, and Duke has now held 18 of its 29 opponents to one of their three lowest point-per-possession outputs.
2. Michigan (27-2)
Last week: Beat Minnesota 77-67 and No. 10 Illinois 84-70
With backup point guard LJ Cason out for the year, Michigan now has an eight-man rotation and is going to have to lean more into its bigger lineups, because four of those players are bigs.
The good news for the Wolverines is that Aday Mara is turning into one of the best two-way centers in the country. He may even enter the All-America conversation, as he’s now rated 10th in the KenPom Player of the Year race. For the season, Michigan’s offensive numbers have been slightly worse with Mara on the floor, but that’s changing. Over the last four games, Mara is 20-of-23 from the field and his biggest weakness (free-throw shooting) has turned into a strength, as he’s 9-of-10 over that stretch. For the last five games, Michigan is plus-59 in Mara’s 107 minutes and just plus-1 in the 93 minutes he has spent on the bench, per CBB Analytics, and the offense is scoring 1.38 points per possession with Mara on the floor.
The uniqueness of Mara is that he’s a 7-foot-4 player who is comfortable playing on the perimeter and can make tough catches. This possession below tells the story. He executes a dribble-handoff by passing the ball between his legs, then catches a bounce pass that lands about a foot away from his right foot and is able to turn and finish quickly:
But the biggest development for Mara has been his ability to not get pushed off his spot. Michigan can throw the ball to him in the post with confidence. Bring help and he’s an elite passer. If you don’t and he’s deep, he’s making decisive moves like this:
Duke rarely doubles the post, and if there’s a rematch in April, Mara was the one guy Duke didn’t have an answer for. His increasing confidence is one reason to believe Michigan hasn’t hit its ceiling.
3. Arizona (27-2)
Last week: Beat Baylor 87-80 and No. 14 Kansas 84-61
One way Kansas was able to upset Arizona three weeks ago was winning at the free-throw line. The Jayhawks were one of six opponents all season to make more free throws than the Wildcats, with a 21-8 advantage in their win in Lawrence.
What makes Arizona so unique is it wins by barely shooting 3s. Arizona ranks third-to-last in the country in 3-point rate, attempting just 26.9 percent of its shots from deep. It’s not that the Wildcats are incapable of making 3s — they shoot a solid 35.3 percent — but they make up for typically getting outscored beyond the arc by dominating paint points and at the line.
(Source: CBB Analytics)
Among high-major teams, Arizona and Duke are in a category by themselves in those two areas.
The difference between the two games against Kansas: In the first matchup, KU kept the paint battle close — losing 42-40 — but won at the line. This time? Arizona won easily, 84-61, because it was plus-10 in the paint and plus-20 at the line.
4. UConn (27-3)
Last week: Beat No. 15 St. John’s 72-70 and Seton Hall 71-67
On the team sheets the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses to evaluate teams, UConn is much better in resume rankings (average of fourth) than quality (average of ninth).
One reason why is the Huskies have played a lot of close games. That’s a major difference compared to Dan Hurley’s back-to-back title teams. They won every single tourney game by double-digits. That’s not likely to happen this season, but UConn has shown an ability to perform well in close finishes.
CBB Analytics tracks “clutch time,” which is any time in the final five minutes of regulation when the score is within two possessions (or 6 points) at the start of a possession, plus all overtime possessions.
These Huskies have already played more clutch-time possessions than the title teams, and among my current top 10, they’ve been in these situations most.
TeamOpponent
Duke
98
95
Michigan
80
55
Arizona
119
73
UConn
158
102
Florida
73
95
Houston
77
78
Michigan State
111
92
Illinois
147
120
Nebraska
92
71
Iowa State
43
43
If looking for a recent team that used its ability to be clutch to win a title, look no further than last year’s champs. Florida outscored opponents 59-30 in clutch time in the NCAA Tournament.
Also notable for March, UConn senior Alex Karaban, who made two free throws in the final minute against Seton Hall on Saturday, has made 4-of-8 3s and 12-of-13 free throws in clutch time this season. A nice luxury to have a two-time champ who is also clutch on the roster.
5. Florida (23-6)
Last week: Beat Texas 84-71 and No. 20 Arkansas 111-77
Great shooters often have gravity that makes opponents scared to leave them and opens up opportunities for others. Well, Florida’s bigs have rebounding gravity.
Opponents are so scared of Florida’s offensive rebounding prowess that they’re starting to sacrifice help defense because they’re so focused on boxing out.
Here’s Boogie Fland with his defender behind him, going down the middle of the lane. Watch how the two Arkansas bigs react:
And even with Arkansas worried about the offensive rebounding, Florida still got back 16 of its 33 misses.
The 111-77 win was Florida’s ninth straight, with eight of those coming by double digits and the other a 9-point win against Kentucky. The 34-point win margin tied for the most lopsided loss of John Calipari’s 34-year career. (The other 34-point loss was the 2018-19 opener against Zion Williamson and Duke.)
Since a 5-4 start to the season, Florida has been the best team in college basketball, according to Bart Torvik’s data. While UConn’s head-to-head win will likely help UConn grab the final No. 1 seed, Florida has been so dominant since that game that it’s close to becoming a debate.
7. Michigan State (24-5)
Last week: Beat No. 8 Purdue 76-74 and Indiana 77-64
I was a Spartan skeptic in the preseason. Let’s revisit my preseason Big Ten preview, where I projected Sparty to finish ninth:
“The reason to believe in this group is there are several impactful returners, but losing leading scorers Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson is concerning for the offense. The Spartans scored 121.3 points per 100 possessions with those two on the floor, per CBB Analytics, and that number dropped around 10 points whenever one of the two was off the floor. Losing (Tre) Holloman to the portal was also a blow. It was rare last season that (Tom) Izzo would ever have all three on the bench.
“Their losses could nudge Izzo toward some lineups where (Coen) Carr is at the 3 and the spacing really suffers. Carr is at his best as an undersized power forward, but is there enough perimeter pop to only play him there? I’m not so sure.”
Akins, Holloman and Richardson all made 47-plus 3s each last year. No one else made more than 19. I was skeptical Izzo could build a sufficient enough offense to be a Top 25 team.
I’m eating all of the crow now. I was right that Izzo would start Carr at the 3, but I was wrong about the shooting. Michigan State is making a respectable 35.6 percent of its 3s, up from 31.1 percent last year with a higher 3-point rate — 37.1 to 32.9.
It’s possible the Spartans could shoot even better the rest of the way. Over the last four games, Jeremy Fears Jr., who is at 29.3 percent from 3 for the year, has made 8-of-17 3s and is getting to the point where you better respect him. The Spartans’ biggest strengths are defense and rebounding, but their shooting is no longer a reason I’ll doubt them.
10. Texas Tech (22-7)
Last week: Beat Cincinnati 80-68 and No. 4 Iowa State 82-73
Texas Tech was toast once Toppin was lost for the year, right?
It doesn’t appear so. Since Toppin’s injury, Texas Tech is 3-0 and made a statement on Saturday, becoming the first team this season to win at Iowa State.
Over the last three games, Texas Tech has had the best adjusted offense (148.1) in the country, per Torvik. The Red Raiders are also the fifth-best team in college hoops since Toppin’s injury, behind title contenders Duke, Arizona, Florida and UConn.
It has helped that Texas Tech has made 37-of-82 3s (45.1 percent). Could that last? Maybe. The Red Raiders do shoot 39.5 percent on the year. Grant McCasland has just leaned more on Christian Anderson and LeJuan Watts. In the first two games, Anderson had 52 points and 17 assists, and Watts had 32 points and two assists. Against Iowa State, they either tried to take advantage of ISU’s switching to get Anderson, freshman guard Jaylen Petty or Watts advantageous matchups, or welcomed Iowa State’s trapping in the post and on ball screens to get two to the ball and play behind that.
Anderson did have six turnovers, but he made some great passes to generate easy shots. Like this one:
The Red Raiders made some tough late-clock shots in the second half to hold off the Cyclones, but they had some runway after building a 20-point lead in the first half that was mostly a product of Anderson dicing up the defense with smart reads.
21. Saint Mary’s (27-4)
Last week: Beat Santa Clara 86-67 and No. 9 Gonzaga 70-59
The Gaels are 27-4 and somehow winning while ranking 248th nationally in 2-point shooting percentage. They beat Gonzaga, 70-59, in what felt like an anomaly on Saturday. They made just 7-of-33 2s, tying their lowest 2-point makes in the Randy Bennett era. It had happened two other times in his 25 years as coach and the other two — one to Gonzaga — were both losses.
It helped that Saint Mary’s made 16-of-33 3s — now shooting 38.8 percent (10th-best nationally) beyond the arc — and limited Gonzaga to just 3 second-chance points and its lowest offensive rebounding rate (20.6) all season.
With a share of the WCC title, Saint Mary’s has now won four straight league titles, sharing the bookends with Gonzaga, and won five of the last eight games against the Zags.
The rivalry is ending with Gonzaga off to the new Pac-12. It’s a shame, because those two or three games annually are when college basketball fans usually pay attention to Bennett and his Gaels, one of the most underrated coaches and programs in the country.