We’ve reached the end my friends. Welcome to the last Big Ten basketball power rankings of the season.
You can already guess who’s No. 1. Maybe even who’s No. 2. With no postseason rankings on the docket, today, we’re going to cap this wacky, wonderful journey by forecasting for each team a realistic March ceiling.
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Not a best- or worst-case scenario, but what the middle 50% outcome looks like. With the late, great Levon Helm on drums, this is the last waltz.
Records through games played March 3.
1. Michigan (27-2, 17-1)
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Unmatched and undisputed. Michigan stresses you everywhere. Their win at Illinois makes the Wolverines the first team other than Indiana to reach 17-1 in a Big Ten season. And their ceiling lies in April, not March. They can win it all.
2. Illinois (23-7, 14-5)
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The loss to Michigan notwithstanding, this team is still a matchup nightmare in March. Illinois plays big. It can shoot 3s but doesn’t need to. It has physical guards. A Final Four run is firmly on the table.
3. Michigan State (24-5, 14-4)
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From the two-big dominance, to the wing shooters, to Jeremy Fears Jr’s excellence, Michigan State has all the hallmarks of a Tom Izzo team peaking in March. Still, this group feels one star removed from Indianapolis. Out with a blaze of glory in the Elite Eight.
4. Nebraska (25-5, 14-5)
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Our concerns about Nebraska’s recent performance against tournament teams remain. But provided a decent path, the Huskers ought to get through the first weekend. Which would mean winning their first NCAA tournament game in program history.
5. Purdue (22-7, 12-6)
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The rankings have stayed higher on Purdue than most across the last three weeks, but this has become too much to ignore. Without some meaningful soul searching, it’s a first-weekend exit for the Boilermakers.
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6. Wisconsin (20-9, 12-6)
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It gets tricky here. A lot of tripping up down the stretch in the Big Ten. Still, with strong guards and a veteran roster, Wisconsin goes where it hasn’t been since Greg Gard’s second season: the Sweet Sixteen.
7. Iowa (20-9, 10-8)
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The hard part for Iowa is seeding. The Hawkeyes look zeroed into an 8-9 game, which would match them up with a 1 in the second round. Maybe the rankings’ hottest take: If Iowa can get into either side of a 7-10, it can reach the Sweet Sixteen. If it’s an 8-9, round of 32.
8. UCLA (20-10, 12-7)
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UCLA will get into the field, probably with a little comfort. But the Bruins won’t stay long — they haven’t beaten a tournament team away from home all year. First-round exit.
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9. Ohio State (18-11, 10-8)
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Finally, the Buckeyes find the right side of the bubble. They still haven’t won consecutive games since Jan. 20. And their road wins are nothing special. But the trip to Dayton for the First Four will be an easy bus ride.
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See best photos of Purdue basketball’s game today at Ohio State in Big Ten action
COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 1: Christoph Tilly #13 of the Ohio State Buckeyes and Devin Royal #21 compete for a rebound with Trey Kaufman-Renn #4 of the Purdue Boilermakers during the first half of the game at Value City Arena on March 1, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
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See best photos of Purdue basketball’s game today at Ohio State in Big Ten action
COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 1: Christoph Tilly #13 of the Ohio State Buckeyes and Devin Royal #21 compete for a rebound with Trey Kaufman-Renn #4 of the Purdue Boilermakers during the first half of the game at Value City Arena on March 1, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
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See best photos of Purdue basketball’s game today at Ohio State in Big Ten action
COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 1: Devin Royal #21 of the Ohio State Buckeyes shoots the ball while being defended by Trey Kaufman-Renn #4 of the Purdue Boilermakers and Fletcher Loyer #2 during the first half of the game at Value City Arena on March 1, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
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See best photos of Purdue basketball’s game today at Ohio State in Big Ten action
COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 1: Head coach Matt Painter of the Purdue Boilermakers yells to his players during the first half of the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Value City Arena on March 1, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
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See best photos of Purdue basketball’s game today at Ohio State in Big Ten action
COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 1: Christoph Tilly #13 of the Ohio State Buckeyes is fouled by Daniel Jacobsen #12 of the Purdue Boilermakers while shooting the ball during the first half of the game at Value City Arena on March 1, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
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See best photos of Purdue basketball’s game today at Ohio State in Big Ten action
COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 1: Ivan Njegovan #7 of the Ohio State Buckeyes dunks the ball during the first half of the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Value City Arena on March 1, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
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See best photos of Purdue basketball’s game today at Ohio State in Big Ten action
COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 1: Ivan Njegovan #7 of the Ohio State Buckeyes reacts after dunking the ball during the first half of the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Value City Arena on March 1, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
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See best photos of Purdue basketball’s game today at Ohio State in Big Ten action
COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 1: Braden Smith #3 of the Purdue Boilermakers reacts after making a three point shot during the first half of the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Value City Arena on March 1, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
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See best photos of Purdue basketball’s game today at Ohio State in Big Ten action
COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 1: Christoph Tilly #13 of the Ohio State Buckeyes shoots he bal over the defense of Oscar Cluff #45 of the Purdue Boilermakers during the first half of the game at Value City Arena on March 1, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
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See best photos of Purdue basketball’s game today at Ohio State in Big Ten action
COLUMBUS, OHIO – MARCH 1: Amare Bynum #1 of the Ohio State Buckeyes shoots the ball during the first half of the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Value City Arena on March 1, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
10. Indiana (17-12, 8-10)
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What to do with the Hoosiers? They are trending in a bad, bad direction, and yet the bubble might be worse. The WAB number is problematic. First four out, and another spring spent working the transfer portal.
11. Washington (14-15, 6-12)
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The season of not-quite-there is almost over for Danny Sprinkle’s crew, but not before Washington ruins somebody’s week (and maybe month) on Upset Wednesday in the Big Ten tournament.
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12. USC (18-11, 7-11)
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We’re into playing-for-pride territory now. USC’s best-case in March is mapping out something post-Chad Baker-Mazara that builds around Alijah Arenas and looks more sustainable than what the first two years of Eric Musselman’s tenure have been.
13. Minnesota (14-15, 7-11)
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The best-case March for Minnesota happens off the floor, not on it. Keep as much of this core together and rally the resources to give Niko Medved more in the portal, and the Gophers will be an even bigger headache next winter.
14. Northwestern (13-16, 5-13)
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Best-case scenario for the ‘Cats: Win one in Chicago, and give a decent young core some confidence and momentum heading into a post-Nick Martinelli world.
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15. Oregon (11-19, 4-15)
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The momentum of three wins in four got doused by an ugly trip through Illinois. A quiet March would be a merciful one.
16. Penn State (12-17, 3-15)
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The Nittany Lions have some intriguing young players. A best-case March means keeping Mingo, Juric and Co. in State College for next season.
17. Rutgers (12-17, 5-13)
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We’re straining here. It’s been a long season. Best-case for Rutgers is still being alive on Wednesday in Chicago.
18. Maryland (11-18, 4-14)
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Maryland’s best-case March is what it’s been for months: looking forward to getting a top-10 recruiting class on campus in June.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: March Madness predictions: Big Ten men’s college basketball rankings