Since Penn State’s season began on Nov. 3, it’s been a slippery slope of ups and downs as the Nittany Lions stumbled to the bottom of the Big Ten.
With the conference tournament looming, the blue and white have just one more test against a team that resides just a few spots above it in the Big Ten standings.
Penn State heads to Piscataway, New Jersey, to take on Rutgers in its final game of the regular season. Tipoff is scheduled for noon Sunday.
The Last Meeting
The Nittany Lions and the Scarlet Knights met earlier this season — on Feb. 18, — and it was the first time the blue and white were favored entering a Big Ten game.
Rutgers came prepared, though, and walked away with an 85-72 victory backed by guard Tariq Francis’ 22 points.
Penn State hasn’t been the favorite to win in any game since and won’t be against Rutgers on Sunday, with the Scarlet Knights currently being given a 63.4% chance of winning, according to ESPN Analytics.
“It’s hard, it’s frustrating, it hurts, but nobody’s coming to save us,” Mike Rhoades said following the Rutgers loss in February. “You just got to keep plugging away.”
Similarities, Differences
Rutgers has two more conference wins than Penn State, but the similarities between the two foes go beyond just their positions in the Big Ten.
With the exception of Maryland, Northwestern, Minnesota, Washington and Oregon, the Nittany Lions and Scarlet Knights have both lost to every other Big Ten team, with the blue and white coming off a blowout loss to Ohio State Wednesday and the Scarlet Knights coming off their second loss of the season to No. 8 Michigan State Thursday night.
Just like they do in the conference standings, the two teams sit right near each other in many Big Ten statistical categories, including the bottom two scoring defenses, two of the worst scoring margins and two of the worst field goal percentage defenses.
Penn State and Rutgers are also both at the bottom of the three-point percentage defense category in the conference – something that plagued the Nittany Lions in their crushing defeat at the hands of the Buckeyes who went 16-of-23 beyond the arc for a 70% clip.
One of the differences between the blue and white and the Scarlet Knights, though, is the rebounding.
Penn State sits dead last in offensive rebounding, while not doing too bad on the defensive end, sitting at 12th. Coincidentally enough, Rutgers sits dead last in rebounding defense and 13th in rebounding offense, so just about the same, just reversed.
With both teams struggling to knock down three-pointers, and also finding it near impossible to defend the deep shots, it feels like the team that can get it going from three-point land should be able to walk away with the dub.
Guard Freddie Dilione V (5) shoots the ball at the Penn State men’s basketball game against Ohio State in the Bryce Jordan Center on Wednesday, March 4, 2026 in University Park, Pa. The Buckeyes beat the Nittany Lions 94-62.
Zach Gleiter
Top Dog vs. Top Dog
Gone are the days of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey — both so far having good seasons with the Spurs and Jazz, respectively — so it’s up to Rutgers guard and leading scorer Francis, who leads the Big Ten in free throw percentage, to contain Penn State leading scorer Freddie Dilione V.
Dilione, who has struggled at times this season, emerged as the Nittany Lions’ go-to scorer due to guard Kayden Mingo catching the injury bug from time to time.
Mingo, currently battling an undisclosed injury, is considered “day-to-day,” but it feels unlikely for him to suit up on Sunday, seeing as there’s not much to play for.
Francis is also a top-10 scorer in the conference and has had three 30 point performances this season, with two against Big Ten foes Northwestern and Oregon, two wins that can be greatly attributed to his efforts.
“Another thing is letting a good player get going early,” Rhoades said after the Rutgers game earlier this season. “When you see that ball go in early, that rim gets bigger and bigger.”
Francis’ 22 points against the Nittany Lions back in February matched Josh Reed’s 22 points from that night, which at that point was the senior’s career high.
With Penn State having trouble letting games “snowball” out of control at times this season, as Rhoades mentioned in his press conference following the Ohio State blowout, it must be wary of Francis’s scoring abilities while also limiting his passing options.
The leading assist-getter for the Scarlet Knights can set up those three-point scoring opportunities like it’s nothing and if the blue and white doesn’t limit those passing lanes, things might get out of control for the Nittany Lions.
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