When the Indiana Pacers made the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago, people dismissed their run as merely the result of a weak path in a conference with one real contender. Especially considering the teams they beat (Milwaukee and New York) were dealt major injury blows along the way.

While that was mostly true – five teams in the West had as many wins as the second-best team in the East – it ignored the fact Indiana was only a No. 5 seed itself, overcoming the third-worst conference odds entering the playoffs to become one of the last two teams standing.

The Pacers weren’t an undeserving challenger to the eventual champion Boston Celtics. They were a rising Eastern Conference power that happened to peak at the right time. “The Pacers, that was the hardest series that we had last year,” Jayson Tatum told the Club 520 podcast in the fall. “Just like how fast they play, they would sub in three people at a time. T.J. McConnell was unreal at home. Obi Toppin, the role players that they got are all so selfless. They don’t stop moving.”

We were warned.

Fast forward to this season, and Indiana’s emergence as a threat to knock off the conference’s top teams couldn’t be clearer as the Pacers are again on the doorstep of another conference finals berth. Only this time people won’t have any choice but to respect a deep run, because the Pacers will have to go through the top seed in the conference to make it happen. And odds are completely stacked against Indiana to beat the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers.

Among the NBA’s top title favorites since racing out to a 15-0 start to the season, and fresh off a first-round sweep over the Miami Heat, the Cavs hold -500 odds to win their series against the Pacers (+375). They’re a 7.5-point favorite for Game 1 on Sunday. The reasons why aren’t hard to find.

The Cavs own the league’s third-best net rating on the season, buoyed by a league-leading offensive rating that rivaled that of the Celtics a year ago. They have a top-10 defense anchored by Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, who along with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland was an all-star this year. Seven different players averaged double-digit points in their series against Miami. They’re not just good. They’re deep.

So where does hope lie that Indiana can knock off the Cavs? Like last year, the Pacers might just be peaking at the right time.

Unlike Cleveland’s defense, which sank to 14th after the all-star break, Indiana’s 21st-ranked unit actually improved as the season winded to a close. The Pacers had the eighth-best defensive rating after the break, boosting their net rating to No. 7, which ranked just one spot behind Cleveland. Over the final month, Indiana actually ranked better than the Cavs on offense and defense. And Indiana also gets contributions across the board, with seven players averaging double-digit scoring in their first-round series against Milwaukee.

In the end, though, Indiana’s ability to prevail will land on the shoulders of their leader, Tyrese Haliburton. After closing out the Bucks with his heroics in Game 5, Haliburton has to continue being Indiana’s engine. His availability and ability to consistently create offense for the Pacers gives them their best chance to beat the Cavs. When he went down with a hamstring injury in Game 2 of last year’s ECF, so too did Indiana’s chances to upset the Celtics. As long as he’s on the floor, nobody should be surprised to see the Pacers give the Cavs all they can handle.