The Heat are -6.5 favorites vs. the Bucks
Total (Over/Under): 234.5 points
Watch the game on FSUN | FDWI | WMLW
The Milwaukee Bucks visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm in Miami, FL.
The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).
The Bucks vs Heat Over/Under is 234.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 28-36 against the spread, while the Heat are 39-26 against the spread.
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Bucks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
SpreadOver / UnderMoneylineMilwaukee Bucks+6.5 -110O 234.5 -110+200Miami Heat -6.5 -110U 234.5 -110-250
Heat vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Thursday‘s game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Bucks and Heat.
Heat vs Bucks Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 63.1% confidence.
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Bucks Best Bets for Tonight:
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.10 Units / 34% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+10.60 Units / 31% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+10.30 Units / 59% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+9.35 Units / 45% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 33 of their last 50 games (+15.80 Units / 27% ROI)
The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+14.70 Units / 28% ROI)
The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+13.55 Units / 16% ROI)
The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+12.05 Units / 26% ROI)
The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+12.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Milwaukee Bucks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 28-36 (-11.6 Units / -16.49% ROI).
27-37 against the Moneyline (-9.5 Units / -9.81% ROI)
28-36 against the Over for game total points (-11.6 Units / -16.48% ROI)
36-28 against the Under for game total points (+5.2 Units / 7.39% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 39-26 (+10.4 Units / 14.32% ROI).
37-29 against the Moneyline (+5.1 Units / 3.89% ROI)
34-30 against the Over for game total points (+1 Units / 1.38% ROI)
30-34 against the Under for game total points (-7.4 Units / -10.19% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 40 games at home (-18.00 Units / -39% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 35 games (-16.35 Units / -41% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Game Total Under in 15 of their last 40 games at home (-13.62 Units / -30% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 50 games (-12.80 Units / -22% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 21 of their last 50 games (-12.45 Units / -22% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Bucks:
The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 30 away games (-15.50 Units / -45% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 19 of their last 50 games (-15.20 Units / -27% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 1Q Spread in 20 of their last 50 games (-14.50 Units / -25% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 30 away games (-14.10 Units / -43% ROI)
The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 40 away games (-12.75 Units / -27% ROI)
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Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Bucks are winless (0-12) when their eFG is 50% or worse this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .218
The Bucks are 6-17 (.261) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .411
The Bucks are 10-18 (.357) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .468
The Bucks were 10-3 (.769) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws in the 2023-24 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks
The Heat were 33-8 (.805) when scoring 110 or more points in the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .659
The Heat are 51-42 (.548) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .453
The Heat are 11-22 (.333) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .445
The Heat were 6-13 (.316) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .551
Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks are shooting 51% (359/698) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%
The Bucks have a TS% of 56% in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49%
The Bucks are shooting 44% from three (126/288) in close and late situations this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34%
The Bucks have an eFG% of 60% in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 19.4 fast break points per game (639 points/33 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.2
The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7
The Heat have averaged 62.0 points per game (4,030 points/65 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 58.0
The Heat have averaged 55.0 points in the paint per game (3,578 points/65 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.5
Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks averaged 37.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,035 rebounds/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Bucks averaged 37.5 defensive rebounds per game (3,072 rebounds/82 games) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Bucks have averaged 4.6 blocks per game (1,051 blocks/228 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Bucks have averaged 7.1 steals per game (784 steals/111 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (880 blocks/229 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Heat averaged 3.8 blocks per game (314 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 37.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,437 rebounds/65 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.0
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