Bracketology locks: Which teams are already in? Who has work to do this week?

A new wave of NCAA Tournament locks has emerged entering Thursday’s conference tournament action, as results continue rolling in. UCF, Iowa, Texas A&M and Santa Clara have passed from the “almost there” category into lock status for the Big Dance as other bubble contenders keep struggling.

UCF and Iowa both won their Wednesday conference tournament games. Even though the victories came against teams not expected to make the NCAA Tournament, they brought some insurance. Both teams should be solidly in the field, regardless of what happens from here.

Santa Clara and Texas A&M didn’t even play Wednesday, but both appear to be safely in the field now. The Broncos are on track to enter Selection Sunday with a Wins Above Bubble score above 2.0, meaning they have roughly two more victories against their schedule than the average bubble team would.

Texas A&M opens its postseason journey in the SEC Tournament on Thursday night against Oklahoma in the event’s second round. But even with a loss, A&M appears to be in great shape with nine combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 victories, zero bad losses and predictive metrics averaging out in the low 30s.

Against that backdrop, here are the teams we are comfortable calling locks to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Other categories include the “almost there,” “on the bubble” and “longshot” tiers.

Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s latest bracket at the Bracketology hub

Remember, this exercise pertains to potential at-large teams. Check out who has clinched an automatic bid here.

ACC

Locks: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson
Almost there: NC State
Bubble: SMU
Longshot: Virginia Tech, Stanford, Cal

NC State beat Pitt in the ACC Tournament on Wednesday, but the Wolfpack are remaining in the “almost there” category for now. Their best road wins over Clemson and SMU have depreciated in value, and a 24-point beatdown of North Carolina comes with a significant asterisk since UNC was missing stars Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. Thus, it still feels premature to call NC State a lock just yet.

Atlantic 10

Almost there: Saint Louis
Bubble: VCU

Saint Louis is just 3-3 over its last six games and has plummeted in both results-based and predictive metrics following a 24-1 start. The Billikens are still probably safe, but they are not a lock. A one-and-done showing in the A10 Tournament, combined with the wrong cocktail of results from around the country, could be at least mildly problematic.

Big 12

Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, TCU, UCF

UCF was once 17-4 (6-3 Big 12) and looked like a lock. But after losing six of nine games down the stretch, the Knights needed a win in the Big 12 Tournament to feel safe. They got it on Wednesday by coming back to beat Cincinnati in overtime. UCF can go shopping for some dancing shoes.

Big East

Locks: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
Longshot: Seton Hall

Beating St. John’s in a potential Big East Tournament semifinal game is likely the minimum for Seton Hall. Reaching that threshold would give the Pirates 22 victories, but they can’t hide from the fact that they didn’t play a good nonconference schedule. That fact shows up in a lagging WAB ranking and in a resume that currently features just one victory over a projected at-large team (NC State).

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio State, UCLA, Iowa
Longshot: Indiana

Whether Iowa played itself to certain lock status with a 75-64 win over No. 17 seed Maryland on Wednesday might have been up for debate had a bunch of other bubble teams won. But the Hawkeyes avoided the catastrophe which would have been losing to the 12-win Terrapins and secured their spot in the field. Beating Ohio State on Thursday would make for a great last bit of insurance, but the Hawkeyes don’t need it at this point after improving to 21-11.

MAC

Lock: Miami (Ohio)

The big question in the MAC is whether it will become a two-bid league. If Akron or another non-Miami winner emerges, it will mark the league’s first time sending two teams to the Big Dance since 1999. The Zips are clearly the team to watch. But bubble teams will be rooting for the RedHawks so that there is no bid thief.

Mountain West

Lock: Utah State
Bubble: New Mexico, San Diego State

New Mexico and San Diego State will have at least some chance of at-large consideration if they reach the Mountain West Tournament title game. But there is probably not a scenario where either becomes a “lock” outside of winning the tournament. Utah State is 11-5 across Quad 1 and Quad 2, which is good enough to be a lock even after three losses in five games to close the regular season.  

SEC

Locks: Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky,  Texas A&M
Almost there: Missouri
Bubble: Texas, Auburn, Oklahoma

Missouri has five Quad 1 wins and no losses outside the top two quadrants. It would be in the field as of Thursday morning without much debate. The Tigers would also be in great shape if they lost their first SEC Tournament game against Oklahoma on Thursday night. But they are not quite to “lock” status just yet. Oklahoma has now played its way from “longshot” status onto the bubble. Texas has a nervy week after losing to Ole Miss in the first round of the SEC Tournament. 

WCC

Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara

The WCC appears destined to send three teams to the NCAA Tournament after Santa Clara crept from “almost there” to lock status on Thursday morning because of favorable results elsewhere on the bubble. Gonzaga won the WCC Tournament during its final year in the league, but Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara have clearly done enough to be at-large teams in a year where the bubble isn’t very good. There’s not even a question on the Gaels, but Santa Clara’s case was at least somewhat up for debate following its loss to the Zags in the WCC Tournament final. That should no longer be the case, as Santa Clara ranks as a top-40 team across the board in the metrics used by the selection committee.