In the words of Daft Punk:

We’re up all night ‘till the sun,

We’re up all night to get some,

We’re up all night for good fun,

We’re up all night to get lucky.

Thus is life as we are now just over a week away from the NBA Draft Lottery, where one franchise will successfully “Capture the Flagg”, while the others are left to pivot into the rest of the draft.

As a quick refresher, we are doing a daily Tankathon simulation every day until the NBA Draft Lottery on May 12th. After week one, our simulations have given the Dallas Mavericks the 11th pick 100% of the time. The Lottery system is used to determine the top four picks in the draft, with the remaining picks assigned to teams in record order. The Mavericks have an 8.5% chance of moving into the top four, with just under a 2% chance at Cooper Flagg.

With that out of the way, let’s get simming.

April 28

So, this got weird as hell. The top three in the lottery each fell to their lowest possible draft spot, and of course the San Antonio Spurs (via the Atlanta Hawks) hop into the top four of the draft with just a 3.4% chance to do so. Talk about having a golden horseshoe shoved up you know what! Anyways, the Mavericks’ options at 12 are about the same as they are at 11. I’ll be rooting for a trade back if all of the guards are wiped off the board.

April 29

This is the lottery luck that we are used to seeing. How funny would it be if the team the Mavericks “beat” in a tiebreaker was actually the team that moved up into the top four. If this scenario plays out, let’s hope for a trade back.

April 30

Hallelujah, your Dallas Mavericks have jumped in the lottery for the first time ever! Your reward? VJ Edgecombe, a freshman who has big game experience and a smooth jumper. He spent last summer trying to get the Bahamas qualified for the Olympic Basketball Tournament, before spending his one and only season in college at Baylor. Edgecombe is a very good athlete, and he shot the ball pretty well as a freshman, as well. This is a pick that would require some patience, but Edgecombe is worth it.

May 1

I suppose as we hit day nine of this simulation, it’s time to talk about Egor Demin out of BYU. Demin has the size and skill to develop into an upper echelon guard in the league, but his game is far too inconsistent to be an immediate contributor. He struggles to shoot and has frequently fought the turnover bug, but every young guard has fought that battle.

But beyond that, the real reason Egor Demin hasn’t come up yet is just simply because he will not be a Dallas Maverick. The Dallas Mavericks underwent a major roster reconstruction last season, it’s not too hard to scroll the roster and see how. I think Demin could develop into a rotational guard in the NBA, I just don’t think it’ll be in Dallas for a variety of reasons.

May 2

Can we all agree that the Philadelphia 76ers do not deserve to move up in the lottery? On the Mavericks front, if they stick at 11, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of trade calls they take. In that regard, who is the worst current NBA player you would trade the 11th pick straight up for? Let us know in the comments.

Results to date

11th pick: seven times (70%)

12th pick: two times (20%)

4th pick: one time (10%)