Troy Renck: Logic cannot constrain hearts. Love for the local team, like butter and hamstring injuries, should be allowed to spread unhindered. Even with concerning losses last week, the Avs and Nuggets offer compelling cases to win a championship. Both are getting healthy with enough runway before the postseason to recalibrate, experiment and invigorate. Captain Gabe Landeskog and Peyton Watson returned Sunday in victories. It raises the question: Who is more important to a deep playoff run, if not a title?
Sean Keeler: The eyes say P-Wat. The Nuggets are a different team when Watson and Aaron Gordon are healthy and rolling together. The Nuggets were a completely different team Sunday once Watson entered the game, outscoring Portland 97-81 after No. 8 came off the bench. Watson can rim-protect with the first unit (which needs it) and create his own shot with the second unit (which needs that, too). He’s the skeleton key that unlocks whatever coach David Adelman wants to do — Peyton can play with big lineups, small lineups, “shooting” lineups, “defensive” lineups, you name it. And yet … the stats say Gabe. Since Jan. 1, the Avs are 7-2 when he plays. They’re 9-9-3 when he doesn’t. Since New Year’s Day, the Nuggets are 11-9 without Watson and 10-9 with him. Interesting.
Renck: The easy answer is Landeskog, given Colorado’s 37-4-7 record when he plays this season. So, of course, I will go with Watson. As with the aforementioned hamstrings, this is a dangerous stretch of reasoning. But hear me out. Sunday was the first time Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson played together since Jan. 22. And there is no denying how strong Denver looks with its opening night rotation healthy. Watson gives them burst and the ability to create space and shots off the dribble. He can also protect the rim and provide perimeter defense. This is the deepest team the Nuggets have had with Nikola Jokic. Coach David Adelman has 10 games to make the pieces fit, even with Watson on a minutes restriction and Gordon not expected to play in the back-to-back games this week. Find the right mix, and Watson can become the playoff X-factor to back up his Sunday boast, when he blurted, “I think when we are healthy, nobody in the league can beat us.”
Keeler: And I hope he’s right. But the facts remain: Watson (so far) is a career 36.4% shooter in the postseason, 33.3% from beyond the arc. What’s he going to look like once good defenses, defenses that are trying, actually key on him and put him higher in the scouting report? My fear is the same as the Russell Westbrook fear a year ago — that teams are going to dare Watson to shoot, and he might end up shooting Denver out of a game. Or a series. And on that note, I hope to holy heck I’m wrong.
Renck: The Avs are better equipped to win another championship. The issue is the path. Even with Landeskog back, there is no guarantee they can outlast the Dallas Stars in a cage match. The Nuggets’ problem is more macro. They are capable of beating anyone in the Western Conference, but doing it 16 times remains thorny given their players’ familiarity with the trainer’s table. If the Nuggets find their rhythm, the missed games should work to their advantage, with a fresher Jokic — a good thing with the incredible shrinking role of Jonas Valanciunas — Gordon and Watson.
Keeler: Big Val is a “matchup” player, and I’m not convinced he matches up all that great with the Thunder or Spurs right now. But he’s serving his function — Jokic’s on a pace to record his lowest minutes per game in two seasons (34.8), while still maintaining MVP-level production. Landeskog has yet to beat Dallas in a Stanley Cup series over his storied career, that’s true. Painful, but true. Lest we forget, though, he also sat out Games 1 and 2 of that teams-too-good-to-play-this-early series between the Avs and Stars spring. If you want to make a case that Colorado wins Game 2 in Dallas if Landy gets the minutes that went to Charlie Coyle (zero points, minus-3 in 16:19) or Miles Wood (zero points, minus-3 in 12:42), instead? Can’t argue with that. Won’t argue with that.
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