According to Shams Charania, Karim Lopez has declared for the 2026 NBA Draft and is projected to become the first Mexico-born first-round pick in league history. ESPN currently has him ranked as the 11th best prospect on their Big Board, but as we approach the NBA Draft I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him improve his stock to the Top 8. He has some things that need to be worked on, but I believe the he has the makings of a really solid pro.

Team: New Zealand Breakers (NBL)

Counting Stats: 11.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2 APG, 2.2 Stocks (steals + blocks) per game

Shooting Splits: 50.2 FG%, 32.6 3P%, 71.7 FT%

Hardware/Honors: NBL Ignite Cup Winner (NBL’s version of the NBA Cup)

The things that Karim does well, he does really well. He’s physical, he’s tough, he’s gritty, and his 7’1” wingspan allows him to have impressive defensive counting stats. He isn’t the fastest guy on the court; as a matter of fact Utah Jazz Legend “Slow Mo” Kyle Anderson probably comes to mind while watching him, but when he is asked to self-create it usually ends in a positive result as he uses that unorthodox timing and rhythm to get to his spots.

After he uses his physicality to get to the rim he also has a very soft touch. During his tenure in the NBL he’s been able to display a beautiful blend of power and finesse that you don’t usually see in a teenager. He was also asked to be a huge part of the team’s operations and finished the season in the top 5 of each counting stat (points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks per game).

Arguably my favorite part of his game is his relentless motor. You can see in his rebounding effort (and the aforementioned physicality to get to the rim) that he has a “never say die” attitude on the basketball court. His effort kind of reminds me of Boston Celtics Rookie Hugo Gonzalez, and I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who’s tapped into the league that would say that Hugo isn’t impactful. His counting stats might not scream “mega-star” but his contributions to winning for the Celtics franchise this year are undeniable.

When I made the comparison to Kyle Anderson earlier, I meant it as both a term of endearment and a red (orange potentially?) flag. Lopez is slow; I feel pretty comfortable in saying that we’ll probably never see anyone touch Earth falling for one of his left-to-right crossovers. I’m not worried about his speed on the offensive end (I mean, look at Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic for goodness sake), but I am quite concerned about his slowness on defense.

With all due respect to the National Basketball League, they do not have the same kind of speed and athleticism that the NBA has. There are times in the NBL where he is targeted on defense and opposing offenses are able to get the best of him. To say I’m scared to see what someone like De’Aaron Fox or even Rob Dillingham would do to him would be an understatement. I think he does have the physical tools to make up for some of his lack of speed, but at that point you are banking on his upside.

The other notable shortcoming he has is his shooting ability. I won’t say that his jump shot is textbook but I do think that it is foundationally solid enough to believe he could improve. Will he turn into Duncan Robinson in three years? I doubt it, but will he become someone that you can’t leave alone? I think so. Shooting 32% from deep on 3 attempts a game isn’t incredible but it seems like there are plenty of prospects in this draft that need to work on their outside scoring, so we can add Karim’s name to that list.

The answer to this question largely depends on where the Front Office’s head is at. As it stands right now we will have 10 players on the roster for next year (11 if we can/will resign Walker Kessler), so there are roster spots to fill. If we believe that we need a player with a lot of upside for the future then I think that drafting someone like Tennessee’s Nate Ament may be the better option. However, if you believe in what this team could be with a healthy Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen, and Jaren Jackson Jr. (not to mention the strides we’ve seen over the past month from Cody Williams and Ace Bailey) and the Front Office thinks that we just need a reliable, ready to contribute player on a cheap deal then I think Lopez may be the guy.

It’s a gamble; I won’t pretend like it isn’t, but the one thing that I think the league will NEVER say no to is a skilled wing player. After seeing what Cody Williams has been over the past few weeks after a rough start to his career, I do tend to believe in this team’s player development system. If we were to draft him I think that he would spend some time in the G-League, but when he does get his number called I think that he’s displayed enough maturity in his game to be a valuable role player for us. Now I will say, as a personal note, that I would hope we give the “role player/glue guy” responsibility to someone who’s displayed that ability already for us this year (looking at you Elijah Harkless and Blake Hinson) but if the brass doesn’t believe in them as players I think that taking a chance on Lopez wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

I certainly would hope that our pick lands in the Top 4 where we have pretty good odds of landing a future superstar in the league, but if we get cursed by the Basketball Gods again we’ll probably have to start thinking about high end role players. I certainly don’t envy a Front Office’s responsibility because if I was the one calling the shots I would trade the non-Top 4 pick for more draft capital until I have a surefire thing; just another reason why I’m writing about draft prospects and not actually drafting them.

What do you think of Karim Lopez? Do you think his play in the NBL will translate to the NBA? Do you think that he’s ranked too high on ESPN’s Big Board? Sound off in the comments below!

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