The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is complete. Sixteen teams remain, including many of the highest-seeded teams in the field, but the first two rounds had their handful of upsets.
The Athletic’s on-site staff this past weekend shared their thoughts on who will win the tournament, the most memorable moments, if Cinderella teams are dead and more.
Who’s your pick to win the tournament at this point?
John Hollinger: I started out with Michigan and see no need to change it after seeing the Wolverines steamroll their first two opponents.
Ralph D. Russo: Picked Arizona, sticking with the Wildcats — despite a janky performance against Utah State on Sunday. I watched up close how good Michigan can be in Buffalo, but I don’t want to get lured into recency bias. That said, I expect a Michigan-Arizona semifinal to be epic.
Ira Gorawara: After initially picking Duke — perhaps a product of being in San Diego — I’m switching my pick to Arizona.
Matt Baker: I feel much worse about my Duke pick now than on Wednesday, but not bad enough to bail on the Blue Devils yet.
Brendan Marks: Still Duke, especially with Patrick Ngongba returning against TCU — but I’d be lying if I said I’m not at least a little worried about Cameron Boozer’s play over the last three games. I don’t know if Virginia center Ugonna Onyenso sapped his powers Monstars-style in the ACC championship game or what, but Boozer has looked nothing like his National Player of the Year self lately, even if the counting stats have been fine. I’ll chalk it up to a wake-up call weekend … for now.
Lindsay Schnell: Considering the way Arizona dismantled LIU and then dispatched a pesky (and extremely well-coached!) Utah State team, I remain confident the Wildcats will cut down nets in Indy. In Jaden Bradley I trust.
Jerry Brewer: Nothing has happened to change my mind. Arizona is still the best team and the one with the most versatility to win six pressure-packed games. The Wildcats looked terrible in the first half against Utah State, but second-round games are tricky.
Joe Rexrode: Arizona. Nothing I’ve seen so far makes me feel any differently than I did before the tournament started. This is the most complete, consistent team. With the most under-discussed freshman star in Brayden Burries.
CJ Moore: Michigan’s A-game is better than anyone else’s in college basketball, and it just keeps getting better. Why? Aday Mara. The Wolverines’ 7-foot-3 center is playing the best basketball of his career and seems to be gaining confidence every game.
What was the most memorable moment from the weekend?
Hollinger: It has to be the end of regulation in the Kentucky-Santa Clara game. Three buckets in the final ten seconds, culminating in a half-court bank shot for OT! Honorable mention to the rather unexpected finish in the Iowa-Florida game.
Russo: Tyler Tanner’s near-miss from beyond halfcourt, capping what was maybe the best game of the tournament between Vanderbilt and Nebraska.
Gorawara: Picking one that didn’t steal as many headlines, Cal Baptist and Dominique Daniels Jr.’s near epic comeback of Kansas in the Round of 64 was goosebump-inducing. Sitting in front of the Lancers’ student section during it all made the experience that much more thrilling and … deafening.
Baker: I’ll second the end of Santa Clara-Kentucky. Otega Oweh’s shot to send it to overtime was a thrilling way to cap off a bonkers finish to regulation. High Point’s upset of Wisconsin is a close second.
Schnell: It’s always fun when America discovers, then falls in love with, a mid-major. By the time High Point tipped off vs. Arkansas, it felt like the entire Moda Center was pulling for the Panthers. The arena was SO loud.
Marks: Nobody else is going with the biggest first-round comeback in NCAA Tournament history? VCU coming back from down 19 points — with 15 minutes left! — against North Carolina was absolutely stunning to witness in person, like a car crash in slow motion. Plus, all indications are that the game will be the catalyst for the end of the Hubert Davis era at UNC, making it even more memorable.
Brewer: As great as the High Point victory over Wisconsin was, the postgame antics of Panthers coach Flynn Clayman won the weekend. He talked smack. We learned his players call him “insane,” but in the most loving way you can call someone insane. Then he had a heckuva duel with John Calipari in the next round. Clayman established himself as one of the most promising, creative and personable coaches in the game.
Rexrode: The most shocking development was Iowa beating Florida, and the best shot was Otega Oweh keeping Kentucky alive, but I’ve got to go with saw-it-in-person bias and pick Nebraska’s win over Vanderbilt. That was the best of this thing, right down to that extra-bouncy NCAA ball refusing to stay down for Tyler Tanner.
Moore: Nebraska or Iowa making the first Sweet 16. Both dramatic finishes. Both awesome stories. And two fanbases who really dislike each other, and now their teams get to play a third time this year. I’m not going to pick. Let’s allow their fans to argue it out in the comments.
Otega Oweh’s buzzer-beater to send Kentucky-Santa Clara to overtime was one of the most memorable moments of the weekend. (Jeff Le / Imagn Images)
Are Cinderella teams dead?
Hollinger: It appears they’ve taken the last train out of hearts, yes, as NIL has allowed the power conferences to strip mine the other leagues of any talent they missed in the initial recruiting process. Not only did seeds 13 through 16 go winless in the first round, most of them were barely able to put up a decent fight. (Except you, Siena. Bravo.) For the third year in a row, the only double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16 are also-rans from one of the power conferences.
Russo: Not looking good for the real Cinderellas. And we’re not talking about a 10-, 11-, or 12-seed winning one game. The real shockers in the first round come from seeds 13-15, and most of those games haven’t looked particularly competitive the past couple of years. In the past, those upstarts could capitalize on experience and continuity against generally more inexperienced high majors. The transfer portal and NIL have changed that dynamic in college basketball. Now the best teams are often among the most experienced, too.
Gorawara: Well, on Thursday, the narrative seemed as though Cinderella had been resurrected from the dead with medical intervention courtesy of High Point and VCU. But then on Friday, her execution was something of a C- in that she failed to live up to her hype — thereby returning to the grave — but Cal Baptist, Furman, Wright State and Santa Clara gave her their very best. It’s just that Cinderella’s glass slipper is becoming increasingly transparent — even invisible — in an era where money knows no bounds.
Baker: They’re on life support. I can still envision instances where the right coach and right players stick together in the right scenario, but I’ve seen enough to declare that this is a trend. My hope — don’t laugh — is that Congress and the powers-that-be realize the issues and start actually trying to fix them to preserve the magic of March Madness.
Marks: I haven’t been able to get Ira’s Cinderella story out of my head, and she nailed it: The days of no-name mid-majors making deep tournament runs might be done… but we absolutely should still see double-digit seeds making the second weekend. They’ll just (probably) be high-majors like Texas, which underachieved or caught fire at the right time. So, not dead, but different.
Schnell: I think we have to say no after High Point’s win over Wisconsin and the way the Panthers pushed Arkansas for 40 minutes. I’d say Cinderella isn’t dead, but a majorly endangered species. (Texas, one of the richest schools in college sports, is not actually a Cinderella.)
Brewer: There’s still a place for Cinderella in this tournament. They might have to settle for single upsets instead of deep tournament runs, though.
Rexrode: Nah. I mean, anyone who says that now has to know they’ll be Freezing Cold Take’d with a vengeance when Liberty makes the Sweet 16 next year. Cinderella teams are less prevalent in this era, of course. But a well-coached group with young talent, and likely some former Power 4 guys who transferred the other way, can still make noise.
Moore: They’ve been on life support already. You might have one sneak through sometime in the next couple of years and High Point was close, but even then it’s likely to be a very well-funded Cinderella. Like: Will Saint Louis count if the Billikens are in a Sweet 16 next year? I say no. It’s very difficult for the true mid-majors to break through because the talent gap is as wide as ever.
What team are you most intrigued by that’s not a one-seed?
Russo: Michigan State sputtered some on the way into the NCAA Tournament, but Tom Izzo’s team is really deep and versatile. I had the Spartans going out in the Sweet 16, but now I’m regretting picking against Izzo.
Schnell: Fourth-seeded Nebraska. Isn’t everyone curious to see how long the Huskers, who hadn’t won an NCAA Tournament game prior to this year, can keep this rolling?
Baker: Purdue got hot in the Big Ten tournament and beat Miami by 10 to advance to the Sweet 16. The Boilermakers are one of the best programs without a national championship. That’s got to end eventually, right? Maybe this is the year with a run we didn’t quite see coming.
Hollinger: With home court in the regional round and the region’s top seed (Florida) now out of the tournament, Houston has a golden opportunity to make amends for its narrow defeat in the final a year ago, and the Cougars’ play in the first two rounds shows they have the talent to do it.
Marks: How about the one whose star freshman guard is averaging 30 points and 6.5 assists in two tournament games, while making 45.5 percent of his 3s? With Darius Acuff Jr. playing like this, Arkansas is as dangerous as any team left standing, not to mention incredibly fun to watch. Plus, I’m kind of here for a John Calipari redemption arc after Kentucky kicked him to the curb two seasons ago.
Brewer: We’re still sleeping on St. John’s because Rick Pitino doesn’t have a dynamic offensive group. But other than shooting, they’re playing Pitino ball perfectly. The Red Storm will be a real problem for Duke in the Sweet 16. I worry about Jon Scheyer in that one. Pitino is going to attack any weakness he can find.
Rexrode: Arkansas. As I just said, I’m sticking with Arizona as my title pick. Also, I’m putting Arizona on upset alert. Darius Acuff Jr. is good enough to take over any game, and he’s so good that people are sleeping on the talent around him. If the Hogs can mind the details on defense, they can reach Indy.
Ira Gorawara: Friday evening was my first time watching St. John’s in person. All the while, my eyes were fixed on this sideline metronome rocking a sleek suit, this dude named Rick Pitino. He’s absurdly watchable. All bite and all composure at once. Sitting across from him at the podium was goosebump-inducing. He’s got “aura,” and in Gen Z, how do you bet against “aura?” You don’t.
CJ Moore: Purdue. We still have six Big Ten teams left, which shows the strength of that league this year, and the Boilers just won the conference tournament and were preseason No. 1 this year. They didn’t play like it from late January to early March, but they’ve regained their confidence and are executing as well as anyone.
No. 9 seed Iowa eliminated reigning national champion Florida in the Round of 32. (Matt Pendleton / Imagn Images)
What Sweet 16 game are you most excited about?
Hollinger: Illinois-Houston on Thursday is circled in neon highlighter. Both teams destroyed two overmatched opponents in the first week. Also, every tanking NBA team will be watching this one, and will likely have reps at the game as well. The headliner is Keaton Wagler vs. Kingston Flemings in a battle of two elite point guards who are headed for the NBA next year, but don’t sleep on David Mirkovic against Chris Cenac in another match-up of prized freshmen who could play at the next level. Add in the fact that the Cougars should have a wildly pro-Houston crowd in their hometown, and this could be a classic.
Russo: Illinois vs. Houston in the South Region. Nice contrast in styles. The Illini are elite offensively and the Cougars are tough as nails under coach Kelvin Sampson, as usual.
Baker: Duke vs. Rick Pitino and St. John’s. No need to overthink that. It’s an all-time great coach against one of the sport’s bluest of bluebloods. Add in Duke’s shakiness in the first round and St. John’s fantastic finish against Kansas, and this matchup excites me the most.
Schnell: I have my eye on two. Arizona vs Arkansas: Darius Acuff Jr. vs. Jaden Bradley/Braden Burries? Yes, please. (I assume the Wildcat guards will take turns trying to slow the future lottery pick.) St. John’s vs. Duke: Rick Pitino is one of the sport’s most accomplished, grizzled veterans, going up against Jon Scheyer, a rising star in the profession. Cannot wait.
Marks: Illinois vs. Houston is fascinating stylistically, a real Goliath vs. Goliath, and Duke vs. St. John’s has all the name-brand recognition TV execs could ask for… but I quietly can’t wait for Iowa vs. Nebraska — because that means either Iowa or Nebraska is making the Elite 8! It’s also very sneakily an elite coaching matchup between Fred Hoiberg and Ben McCollum, which means I’m expecting high-level hoops, even if the names aren’t as nationally sexy.
Brewer: Arkansas vs. Arizona. The Razorbacks aren’t good enough defensively to beat the Wildcats, but that game is going to be beautiful to watch: full of pace, athleticism and skill.
Rexrode: Since I already mentioned Arkansas-Arizona, let’s go with Houston-Illinois and Connecticut-Michigan State. Absolute bangers. Houston’s defense against Illinois’ offense. Keaton Wagler and Kingston Flemings. A stylistic clash. And then you’ve got UConn’s Tarris Reed against Michigan State’s seniors inside. Jeremy Fears helping Coen Carr punish rims. Alex Karaban seeking a third title. Dan Hurley vs. Tom Izzo. So good.
Gorawara: UConn vs. Michigan State. They’re tough to rattle or speed up. Two programs that trust their habits, meaning the game will tighten late and come down to who executes under pressure without blinking. Plus, Tom Izzo and Dan Hurley on the sidelines sounds pretty spectacular.
Moore: Houston against Illinois. The winner will be the favorite to make the Final Four out of the South region, and that is a Final Four-level game. Both teams have looked like No. 1 seeds for portions of the year. Both have excellent coaches and pros on the roster. Will be a big-boy game and should be a blast to watch. Excited I’ll be there in person.