The six Eastern Conference teams immersed in a battle for four playoff spots find themselves packed as tightly as passengers squished into a Skytrain shuttling between airport terminals.
Even in the midst of a five-game losing streak, even coming off a demoralizing 136-111 loss to San Antonio, the Heat — which plays the first of two consecutive games in Cleveland on Wednesday (7:30 p.m., FanDuel Sports Sun) — can take some measure of solace in the bunched-up nature of the standings.
Entering Tuesday night (when Charlotte was set to host Sacramento, and Orlando was scheduled to play at Cleveland), just three games separated the No. 5 seed (Toronto) from the No. 10 seed (Charlotte).
The standings, heading into those games, had 38-34 Miami in the No. 9 slot — 2.5 games behind No. 5 Toronto, two games behind No. 6 Atlanta, one game behind No. 7 Philadelphia and a half game behind No. 8 Orlando, but also a half game ahead of No. 10 Charlotte.
The fifth and sixth seeds automatically qualify for the playoffs. The seventh-through-10th seeds must qualify through the play-in, just as the Heat has done the past three seasons. “I don’t want to be in the [expletive] play-in,” Bam Adebayo reiterated Monday night.
Myriad factors will influence the order of these six teams before the regular season ends Sunday night, April 12. Here are six of them, with each team except Toronto having 10 games left after Tuesday:
▪ The head-to-head outcomes and the schedules:
Miami’s chances of escaping the ninth/10th abyss rests in part on winning most or all of its four remaining games against the five others in this group (Philadelphia, two at Toronto, home to Atlanta in the finale). It could help the Heat that Toronto has the worst home record of any of the 12 top-six seeds, at 19-16.
But keep in mind that only Atlanta and Charlotte have fewer games against tanking/dreadful teams than Miami does, which means the Heat might need to win at least five of its seven other games to have a legitimate chance of climbing out of the play-in.
Those seven: two at Cleveland this week, two at Toronto, and home to Philadelphia, Boston and Atlanta.
And there’s no wiggle room for Miami to fumble two games against Washington and one on Sunday at Indiana, where the Heat was demolished earlier this season.
“Ten games left — it’s put up or shut up,” Tyler Herro said.
The Magic and Raptors have the easiest schedules, on paper — with four games apiece against lottery teams and very few games where they will be clear underdogs.
The Hornets and Hawks — who have just two games left against tankers — have the most difficult remaining schedules of the six teams.
▪ Can the Heat’s struggling defense get it together?:
The Heat has allowed 120 points in five consecutive games for the first time in its history and seems helpless to stop teams with a clear talent advantage. “That’s the most disappointing thing right now,” coach Erik Spoelstra said.
During this five-game skid, the Heat is allowing 126 points per 100 possessions; that 126 defensive rating is fourth worst in the league, ahead of only three tanking teams (Pacers, Wizards, Bucks) and a shocking number for an organization that prides itself on defense. For the season, Miami’s 112.3 defensive rating is sixth best in the league.
▪ The injury dynamic:
The Heat has had its full roster, aside from Terry Rozier, only six times this season, including Monday, but is just 3-3 in those games.
Barring new injuries on Miami’s roster, the most significant injuries that will factor into the Heat’s seeding involve three players on other teams:
Orlando’s Franz Wagner (has played only five games since Dec. 7 because of an ankle injury; return date uncertain), Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid (reportedly could be close to returning after missing 13 in a row with an oblique injury) and Tyrese Maxey (the All-Star guard could return by early April after a tendon injury in his right pinkie).
If Embiid and Maxey return for the final two weeks, the 76ers would be well-positioned to remain ahead of the Heat.
▪ The tiebreakers:
Miami stands at a disadvantage among these desperate six teams, having clinched the tiebreaker only against Charlotte.
Orlando has already clinched the tiebreaker against Miami by virtue of winning all their meetings (four in the regular season and one in the NBA Cup that doesn’t count toward tiebreakers).
Even if the Heat wins two games in Toronto on April 8 and 10, the Raptors — who won two games in Miami earlier this season — would win the tiebreaker by virtue of a vastly superior conference record.
The Heat-76ers tiebreaker will be determined by the outcome of their game in Miami next Monday.
If the Heat loses to the visiting Hawks on the final day of the season, the tiebreaker would be their division records; Atlanta leads narrowly in that area (8-6 to Miami’s 7-7).
▪ The Herro/Norman Powell factor:
One of the great disappointments of this Heat season is not only how infrequent the team’s two most accomplished shooters have played together because of injuries, but also the record when they both suit up (5-11) and their plus-minus when they’re on the court at the same time (minus 13 in 218 minutes).
It would help dramatically if that changes during the final 10 games.
It would help if Powell began to resemble the pre All-Star break version (23 ppg, 39.6% on threes) instead of the injury-hobbled, less efficient post All-Star break version (18 ppg, 28% on threes).
It would help if Herro — who has been very good offensively at times — curtails the tough three-point shooting nights (2-7, 2-8, 2-9 the past couple of weeks).
▪ The mystery of the Hawks and Magic:
Atlanta’s stretch of 13 wins in its past 14 games was achieved against a laughably easy schedule, featuring mostly home games and only three games against teams with winning records (wins against Philadelphia and Orlando and a lopsided loss at Houston).
Whether the Hawks are a fraud, or whether they’re actually formidable and poised to stay ahead of the Heat in the battle for seeding, will become clearer when Atlanta navigates a grueling remaining schedule featuring games at Detroit, Boston, Orlando, Cleveland and Miami and home game Boston, New York and Cleveland.
On the flip side, Orlando has been a puzzling disappointment, a team — just like the Heat — that has followed a seven-game winning streak with an ongoing five-game losing streak. Injuries to Wagner (28 appearances this season) and Jalen Suggs (47 games, back now) and a previous nine-game absence by Paulo Banchero assuredly have contributed.