Bryan Armetta shares his preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Boston Celtics.
The last two NBA champions are set to battle this evening in Beantown. The Thunder (57-15, 1st West) are a juggernaut, hoping to win a second straight title. To do so, Oklahoma City might need to get through the Celtics (47-24, 2nd East). Boston, with Jayson Tatum healthy, has the star power and depth needed for another deep postseason run. Which side has the edge in this potential Finals preview?
The Thunder are 2.5-point favorites (-105) over the Celtics on DraftKings Sportsbook. Oklahoma City is favored at -142 on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at 218.5 points. Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Wednesday’s Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics game.
Thunder vs. Celtics prediction, preview
At this point, what more needs to be said about the defending champs? Oklahoma City is at its best when it comes to frustrating opponents; the team owns the NBA’s best defensive rating (107.3). On the other end of the floor, MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to deliver phenomenal numbers. Through 60 games, the Canadian is averaging 31.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.6 assists while shooting 56% from the field. He’s joined by fellow All-Star Jalen Williams, who made his return from the injured list on Monday. Down low, stretch-big Chet Holmgren (17.2 PPG, 9.0 REB) is a reliable third option.
It’s not just that the Thunder own the association’s best record. It’s how much better they are statistically compared to every other title contender. OKC wields a league-best +11.2 net rating. The next-closest team, Detroit, is sitting at +7.8. Keep in mind, the champs have done this despite inconsistent health for Williams, their second-best player. When fully healthy, no squad is deeper or more dangerous than Oklahoma City.
That’s not to say this group is immune from the occasional letdown game. In fact, that was almost the case when these two teams last met on March 12th. On the road, with Jayson Tatum sidelined, the Celtics lost a 104-102 nail-biter vs. OKC. Assuming the six-time All-Star takes the floor this time around, there’s reason for optimism in Boston. After all, Jaylen Brown is playing the best basketball of his career this season. Through _ games, the wing has accounted for 28.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists to go with 48/34/80 shooting splits. In the last meeting between these clubs, JB tallied 34 points over 41 minutes.
If the Thunder have one major weakness, it’s on the glass. Oklahoma City is allowing 55.1 rebounds per game to its opponents, sixth-worst in the association. In comparison, the Celtics own the association’s sixth-best offensive rebounding percentage (29.4%). Granted, that doesn’t account for the loss of Nikola Vucevic, sidelined due to a finger injury. Regardless, Boston has other big men capable of snagging some much-needed boards.
The bigger concern right now for the C’s might be, surprisingly enough, Tatum. Through eight games, the forward is only averaging 19.1 points on 39% shooting. Long term, this is unlikely to be an issue; rust was inevitable after missing so much time. However, in terms of tonight’s contest, a date with the NBA’s best defense doesn’t scream ‘bounce-back.’ Oklahoma City’s cadre of pesky wing defenders, such as Lu Dort and Alex Caruso, could make life difficult for #0.
Thunder vs. Celtics pick, best bet
This is about as clean a bill of health as both sides have had all season. Vucevic is the only major name for either squad that isn’t taking the floor this evening. With that being said, both Tatum and Williams are still gaining their footing. While J-Dub has no problem serving as a complimentary piece, the Celtics are JT’s team. That’s created some cohesion issues over the past few weeks; Boston is 6-4 over its last ten games. To take down the Thunder, you need to be at your absolute best; the C’s aren’t there yet.