Our NBA player prop projections are locked in for tonight’s clash between the Cade Cunningham-less Detroit Pistons and Anthony Edward-less Minnesota Timberwolves, with the model highlighting several standout opportunities.
After digging into the data and lining it up against current market prices, we’ve identified the bets with the strongest value.
If you’re putting together your card, these are the model’s top NBA picks for Saturday, March 28.
Pistons
Timberwolves
Duren u22.5 points
-112
Randle o22.5 points
-105
Jenkins u6.5 assists
+115
Gobert o11.5 rebounds
-135
Duren o10.5 rebounds
+105
Reid u2.5 3-pointers
-170
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Pistons computer picks
Jalen Duren Under 22.5 points (-112)
Projection: 20.1 points
The Detroit Pistons have maintained the fifth-slowest pace in the league over their last five road games, a factor that could affect Jalen Duren’s scoring.
He’s gone Under his 22.5-point line in only three of the past 10 contests, but the Pistons’ slower tempo may make it tougher for him to reach that mark against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Daniss Jenkins Under 6.5 assists (+115)
Projection: 6.4 assists
Daniss Jenkins has struggled to consistently reach his assist line lately, going Under 6.5 assists in four of his last 10 games.
The Timberwolves present a tough matchup, ranking among the league’s top teams in limiting secondary playmaking and guarding passing lanes.
Expect Jenkins to face tight pressure, forcing him to adjust his shots and passes — a scenario that makes another Under on his 6.5-assist line likely in today’s game.
Jalen Duren Over 10.5 rebounds (+105)
Projection: 11.1 rebounds
Over the past 25 games, the Pistons rank as the NBA’s second-best team in offensive rebounds, a trend that should boost Jalen Duren’s chances to hit his rebounds prop.
He’s gone Over 10.5 rebounds in six of his last 10 games, and with Detroit crashing the boards at such a high rate, another Over looks likely.
Timberwolves computer picks
Julius Randle Over 22.5 points (-105)
Projection: 23.9 points
The Timberwolves have pushed a fast tempo at home, ranking third in pace over their last 20 games, and with Anthony Edwards still out, they’ll rely on Julius Randle to step up.
He’s gone Over 22.5 points in only three of his last 10 games, but with Minnesota’s accelerated pace, Randle will need a strong performance to keep the team competitive.
Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 rebounds (-135)
Projection: 11.7 rebounds
The Timberwolves have ranked as the NBA’s second-best team in offensive rebounds over their last five games, with Rudy Gobert playing a major role.
He’s gone Over 11.5 rebounds in six of his last 10 games, and his presence on the boards continues to drive Minnesota’s second-chance opportunities.
Naz Reid Under 2.5 3-pointers (-170)
Projection: 2.2 3-pointers
Over the last 10 games, the Timberwolves rank as the seventh-least aggressive team in the NBA when it comes to 3-point attempts, and Naz Reid has struggled to convert from deep, going Under 2.5 three-pointers in each of his last 10 contests.
How to watch Pistons vs Timberwolves tonight
Location
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Date
Saturday, March 28, 2026
Tip-off
5:30 p.m. ET
TV
ABC
Not intended for use in MA.
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