NBA Betting Preview: Heat vs Pacers
The Miami Heat take the court against the Indiana Pacers in this NBA clash. Our betting preview features expert NBA predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, player stats, team news and confirmed starting lineups.
We’re Expecting Pacers to Cover the Spread
We’re delighted to see the Pacers have been given a headstart on the spread. Take the +9 at -110 when they go up against the Heat.
Pacers Beat Heat When Teams Last Met
Miami Heat were beaten in their previous game and this was on the road at Rocket Arena. Cleveland Cavaliers claimed a 149-128 win. Jaime Jaquez Jr. poured in 20 points, with Norman Powell contributing 15 and Kel’el Ware adding 14.
Indiana Pacers have lost their last eleven home games, most recently suffering a 114-113 defeat to LA Clippers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Aaron Nesmith scored 26 points, with Obadiah Toppin adding 20 and Micah Potter 13.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The Pacers beat the Heat in their last head-to-head matchup. It was a 123-99 scoreline at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. In the previous 10 games between the teams, they have won five apiece.
Heat
39
35
0.527
120.3
117.7
2.6
23-14
16-21
7-7
23-21
4-6
1L
Pacers
16
58
0.216
111.9
120.6
-8.7
10-27
6-31
3-10
12-33
1-9
2L
Miami Heat – Last 10 Games
The Heat have 4 wins and 6 losses in the past 10 games. They are averaging 121.3 points, 43.0 rebounds, 28.6 assists, 8.3 steals and 3.8 blocks while shooting 46.2% from the field and 83.2% from the free-throw line. The opposition have an average of 124.6 points and 44.6 rebounds per matchup.
Bam Adebayo is averaging 25.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.2 (26.5%) 3-pointers made, while Jaime Jaquez Jr. averages 4.9 assists.
Indiana Pacers – Last 10 Games
The Pacers have won 1 and lost 9 of their last 10 contests. Averaging 115.1 points, 38.5 rebounds, 31.0 assists, 6.4 steals and 4.1 blocks per game while shooting 49.0% from the field and 83.2% from the free-throw line. Their opponents have averaged 124.6 points and 45.6 rebounds.
Aaron Nesmith is averaging 16.6 points and 2.7 (47.4%) 3-pointers made. Jarace Walker has an average of 6.0 rebounds and Andrew Nembhard 5.9 assists.
Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Prediction & Picks
Approach Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers fully prepared with our expert match prediction, likely score outcome, standout player prop picks and a hand-picked bet builder.
Game Prediction
Pacers are more than capable of staying close to the favorites so there’s a strong case for betting them against the spread in this NBA contest. Take the -110 for the +9 that is available.
We put solid research behind every basketball prediction, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key NBA stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions.
Key Heat vs Pacers stats:
The +9 line has been covered by Pacers in 4 consecutive games at home.The +9 line has been covered by Pacers in 14 of their last 20 games at home.The +9 line has been covered by Pacers in 6 of their last 10 games.The -9 line hasn’t been covered by Heat in 4 of their last 5 games.The -9 line hasn’t been covered by Heat in 7 of their last 10 games.The +9 line has been covered by Pacers in 7 of their last 10 games against Heat.Pacers +9 Probability
The top NBA sportsbooks suggest there’s a 52.4% chance of our pick landing a return. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. It is the reason why we are recommending this wager.
Looking for Bigger Odds?
If the initial odds don’t grab your fancy, there’s the option to shoot for more juice by moving the line when it comes to your points spread pick. It all comes down to how confident you feel.
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Our Game Prediction
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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 28, 17:02). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Published 17:02, 28 March 2026
Player Prop Picks
Bam Adebayo (Heat) has totaled an average of 14.75 rebounds in the past 4 games on the road. We’re expecting history to repeat itself and for him to cover the Player Rebounds line at -115.
Latest Bam Adebayo Player Prop Odds
Andrew Nembhard (Pacers) has recorded an average of 12.5 assists in the past 4 games. You can secure betting odds of -101 that he is able to cover the line, with this Player Assists wager making appeal.
Latest Andrew Nembhard Player Prop Odds
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Correct Score Prediction
There’s a big payout on the cards should you correctly predict the correct score. We’re siding with the Heat to claim a 121-115 victory which will hopefully go close.
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Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Books Make Heat Big Favorites
The Miami Heat odds have been priced up by the sportsbooks and they are -417 betting favorites to land victory in this NBA game which means a 81% chance of winning. Indiana Pacers are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +330.
9.5 is the spread and 245.5 is the total points line. Basketball bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on the Totals. If you fancy Under 245.5, then the odds are -110.
There are a wide range of team props and game lines when it comes to wagering on this exciting league and we recommend visiting the best basketball sportsbooks to find the wager that matches your view on the contest.
Betting Lines & Odds
Moneyline
Point Spread
Total Points
Bam Adebayo Favorite to Get the Most Buckets
Bam Adebayo is the favorite to land the most baskets. You can back -105 that he gets Over 22.5 points. Alternatively, Under is trading at -120.
Player Points
Bam Adebayo (Heat)
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
Tyler Herro (Heat)
Norman Powell (Heat)
Andrew Nembhard (Pacers)
Andrew Wiggins (Heat)
Davion Mitchell (Heat)
Player Assists
Andrew Nembhard (Pacers)
Davion Mitchell (Heat)
Tyler Herro (Heat)
Bam Adebayo (Heat)
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
Norman Powell (Heat)
Andrew Wiggins (Heat)
Player Rebounds
Bam Adebayo (Heat)
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
Tyler Herro (Heat)
Andrew Wiggins (Heat)
Norman Powell (Heat)
Andrew Nembhard (Pacers)
Davion Mitchell (Heat)
Live market odds and lines updated regularly. All odds subject to change. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Pacers Slide Includes Ten Straight Defeats at Home
The Pacers are 0-10 in their last 10 home games, putting up 114.30 points on average and giving up 126.00.
The Heat own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 road games, averaging 122.10 points scored and 119.20 points allowed.
The Pacers beat the Heat 123-99 when they last met at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, both teams have notched five wins.
Indiana Pacers Home Stats
0-10
240.30
114.30
126.00
5
5
Miami Heat Away Stats
5-5
241.30
122.10
119.20
4
6
W-L = Wins-Losses
P = Avg. Points
PF = Avg. Points For
PA = Avg. Points Against
O243.5 = Games Over 243.5 Points
U243.5 = Games Under 243.5 Points
Team Stats
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Miami Heat Stats
Indiana Pacers Stats
4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
1 win and 9 defeats in the last 10 games
0 wins and 10 defeats in the last 10 home games
-9 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
-9 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road
+9 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
+9 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games
Game Totals: An average of 245.90 pts in the previous 10 games
Game Totals on the Road: An average of 241.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
Over 243.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
Over 243.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 121.30 pts and allowed 124.60 pts in the last 10 games
Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 122.10 pts and allowed 119.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road
Game Totals: An average of 239.70 pts in the previous 10 games
Game Totals at Home: An average of 240.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
Over 243.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
Over 243.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 115.10 pts and allowed 124.60 pts in the last 10 games
Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 114.30 pts and allowed 126.00 pts in the last 10 home games
Last 10 Games
2-Pointers Made: 28.30 (58%)
3-Pointers Made: 13.50 (33%)
Free Throws Made: 24.20 (83.16%)
Rebounds: Total 43, Offensive 10.80, Defensive 32.20
Assists: 28.60
Blocks: 3.80
Steals: 8.30
Turnovers : 12.00
Personal Fouls: 20.50
Last 10 Games on the Road
2-Pointers Made: 27.80 (54%)
3-Pointers Made: 15.50 (37%)
Free Throws Made: 20.00 (80%)
Rebounds: Total 48.3, Offensive 12.40, Defensive 35.90
Assists: 29.10
Blocks: 4.00
Steals: 8.30
Turnovers : 11.70
Personal Fouls: 18.10
Last 10 Games
2-Pointers Made: 27.30 (56%)
3-Pointers Made: 14.90 (40%)
Free Throws Made: 15.80 (83.16%)
Rebounds: Total 38.5, Offensive 8.00, Defensive 30.50
Assists: 31.00
Blocks: 4.10
Steals: 6.40
Turnovers : 14.10
Personal Fouls: 20.10
Last 10 Home Games
2-Pointers Made: 28.30 (57%)
3-Pointers Made: 13.90 (37%)
Free Throws Made: 16.00 (78.82%)
Rebounds: Total 38.6, Offensive 9.10, Defensive 29.50
Assists: 30.00
Blocks: 4.10
Steals: 6.90
Turnovers : 15.10
Personal Fouls: 20.10
Starting Lineups
Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of tip-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.
Expert Analysis by Elijah Jackson
Senior NBA Analyst
About the Analyst
Elijah Jackson is a Senior NBA Analyst and Head of the Basketball Editorial Betting Panel with 10+ years of experience, specialising in roster evaluation and efficiency-based analysis to uncover value across NBA markets.
NBA Predictions Methodology
Our NBA analysis focuses on efficiency, pace and player performance ratings. We combine player availability, schedule context, lineup data and market movement with metrics such as Offensive Rating (ORTG), Defensive Rating (DRTG), Net Rating and Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) to assess overall team strength, fatigue analysis and find value in high-paced games.
Full Methodology & Data Sources
Where to Bet
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Transparency & Safety
This preview was last updated on Mar 28, 20:40 to reflect the latest team news, injury reports, starting lineups, player rotations, rest and travel factors, key performance metrics and odds movement.
All analysis is produced by professional analysts and reviewed by our Basketball Editorial Betting Panel for accuracy and consistency.
Historical performance for our game predictions is tracked and updated regularly for transparency.
Important: Betting should be treated as entertainment and involves risk. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Only wager what you can afford to lose.
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