The Nuggets are -12.5 favorites vs. the Warriors
Total (Over/Under): 238.5 points
Watch the game on NBC | PEAC | TELE
The Golden State Warriors visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 pm in Denver, CO.
The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).
The Warriors vs Nuggets Over/Under is 238.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Warriors are 32-42 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 40-35 against the spread.
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Warriors vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
SpreadOver / UnderMoneylineGolden State Warriors+12.5 -110O 238.5 -105+475Denver Nuggets -12.5 -110U 238.5 -115-650
Nuggets vs Warriors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Sunday‘s game with 76.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Warriors and Nuggets.
Nuggets vs Warriors Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 67.4% confidence.
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Warriors Best Bets for Tonight:
The Golden State Warriors have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+12.35 Units / 24% ROI)
The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.05 Units / 19% ROI)
The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.10 Units / 18% ROI)
The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 games (+9.20 Units / 18% ROI)
The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:
The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.00 Units / 26% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+9.60 Units / 59% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.00 Units / 27% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.40 Units / 43% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+8.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Golden State Warriors Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 32-42 (-14.2 Units / -17.44% ROI).
36-38 against the Moneyline (-16.4 Units / -9.77% ROI)
45-29 against the Over for game total points (+13.1 Units / 16.09% ROI)
29-45 against the Under for game total points (-20.5 Units / -25.18% ROI)
Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 40-35 (+1.5 Units / 1.82% ROI).
47-28 against the Moneyline (+0.1 Units / 0.04% ROI)
47-28 against the Over for game total points (+16.23 Units / 19.68% ROI)
28-47 against the Under for game total points (-23.7 Units / -28.71% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:
The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 30 games at home (-21.81 Units / -40% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 30 games at home (-18.70 Units / -38% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 30 games at home (-17.19 Units / -49% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 30 games at home (-15.60 Units / -44% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 50 games (-14.40 Units / -25% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Warriors:
The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 40 games (-27.30 Units / -48% ROI)
The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 40 games (-20.30 Units / -44% ROI)
The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 45 games (-19.30 Units / -38% ROI)
The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 50 games (-17.65 Units / -31% ROI)
The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 35 games (-17.60 Units / -37% ROI)
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Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets
The Warriors are 7-19 (.269) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .440
The Warriors are 52-8 (.867) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .805
The Warriors are 2-14 (.125) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .219
The Warriors are 112-90 (.554) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506
Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors
The Nuggets are 36-7 (.837) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .617
The Nuggets are undefeated (5-0) when their opponents turns the ball over 20 or more times since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .633
The Nuggets are 30-6 (.833) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .699
The Nuggets are 21-7 (.750) when they win the turnover margin this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .593
Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends
The Warriors have made 16.0 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.3
The Warriors have averaged 17.3 turnovers per game (658 turnovers/38 games) on the road this season — tied for highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.6
The Warriors have made 15.4 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2
The Warriors have a TS% of 52% this season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%
Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have averaged 1.39 points per shot (9,100 points/6,534 shots) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30
The Nuggets have an eFG% of 57% this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%
The Nuggets are shooting 40% from three (508/1,264) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
The Nuggets have averaged 1.41 points per shot (4,799 points/3,394 shots) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.29
Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends
The Warriors have averaged 9.9 steals per game (730 steals/74 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4
The Warriors have forced 17.4 turnovers per game (660 turnovers/38 games) on the road this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.5
The Warriors have 730 steals this season — 2nd most among NBA teams
The Warriors have averaged 10.3 steals per game (814 steals/79 games) on the road since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4
Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have averaged 6.7 steals per game (505 steals/75 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4
The Nuggets have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (290 blocks/75 games) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Nuggets have averaged 36.9 defensive rebounds per game (5,792 rebounds/157 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1
The Nuggets have averaged 36.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,761 rebounds/75 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.9
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