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For a team that could still win 50 games this year, there’s a surprising amount of gloom around the Houston Rockets, and it’s a “where do we go from here?” derby tonight as they visit the New Orleans Pelicans.
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Houston is just 7-7 in March while New Orleans has dropped four games in a row, and my Rockets vs. Pelicans predictions and NBA picks signal a struggle for both offenses tonight.
Rockets vs Pelicans predictionRockets vs Pelicans best bet: Under 225.5 (-110)
Put simply, this isn’t likely a matchup for basketball purists who love slick offense. That makes the Under a value pick tonight. It’s 2-7 in the New Orleans Pelicans’ last nine contests, and 41-32 for the Houston Rockets this season.
The numbers tell a compelling story for a low-scoring scrap. Houston is allowing just 110.2 ppg this year, the fourth-best mark in the league, and should lock down a New Orleans offense that may be without Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III again.
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The Pelicans have thrown Jeremiah Fears into a bigger role with the season fading away, and they looked toothless in Toronto on Friday, managing just 44 points in the first half.
Meanwhile, Houston’s over-reliance on Kevin Durant to get buckets has been a storyline all year, and they’re still stuck in the bottom half of the NBA at 114.1 ppg. The lack of ball movement is at the root of the problem, with only four teams averaging fewer assists per game.
Equally, these squads have been a mess from beyond the arc this season. New Orleans ranks 26th in 3-pointers made and 25th in 3-pointers attempted; Houston ranks 27th and 29th, respectively, in those categories. That’s not the type of marksmanship to spark an Over.
When these teams squared off earlier this month in Houston, we got a 107-105 rock fight that put a spotlight on their offensive limitations. Tonight feels like a recipe for more of the same.
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Rockets vs Pelicans same-game parlay
I like pairing the Under with a rebounding Over, and Amen Thompson is averaging 8.9 rpg in March. He’s gone past this O/U mark in six of his last eight outings, and he hauled in 12 boards against the Pelicans earlier this month.
The Rockets are 6-1 SU in the past seven meetings between these teams, and they have a defensive edge over a New Orleans squad that’s scored fewer than 110 points in four of its past five games.
Rockets vs Pelicans SGP
Amen Thompson Over 7.5 rebounds
Our “from downtown” SGP: Reed all about it!
One way for Houston to unclog its offense is to bump up Reed Sheppard’s minutes. He’s coming off a 15-point effort in Memphis on Friday, and he’s up to 31.8 mpg this month. His playmaking is the biggest plus, with 28 dimes across his last four contests.
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Rockets vs Pelicans SGP
Reed Sheppard Over 14.5 points
Reed Sheppard Over 4.5 assists
Amen Thompson Over 7.5 rebounds
Rockets vs Pelicans odds
Spread: Rockets -6 | Pelicans +6
Moneyline: Rockets -240 | Pelicans +195
Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Rockets vs Pelicans betting trend to know
The Under is 28-18 in Houston’s games against Western Conference opponents this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Pelicans.
How to watch Rockets vs Pelicans
Location
Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Date
Sunday, March 29, 2026
Tip-off
7:00 p.m. ET
TV
Space City Home Network, Pelicans+
Rockets vs Pelicans latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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